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Why VTS Stock dropped -10.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$15.45 -10.38% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.13

Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $725.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VTS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Vitesse Energy Inc. (NYSE: VTS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $15.45 (-10.38% 1D, market cap $725.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, VTS ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VTS compare to OBE and GRNT in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), VTS carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.2%. By comparison, OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.9M) and GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $691.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VTS?
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Per VTS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001944558), Vitesse Energy Inc. generated $274.0M in revenue (+13.2% YoY), $25.3M in net income, and $170.3M in free cash flow against $893.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.13 (-2.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 62.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (10)Whales (10)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$24 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE VTS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VTS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VTS SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.12 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$17.44+2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$17.92+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$18.28-15.5% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$15.45+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VTS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, VTS faces multiple-compression risk if 30.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.61) or 200D SMA ($17.96) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.59) toward Bear Floor ($12.16).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VTS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VTS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why VTS Stock dropped -10.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) dropped -10.38% to $15.45, trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($15 – $22.91). Solid steady margins (2% return on capital), mixed timing at 31x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 6% of its 52-week range ($15 – $22.91) with RSI-14 at 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.5% around $15.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $170.3M annual free cash flow.
Live VTS Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (VTS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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VTS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.12%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $18.30H $18.30L $15.45C $15.45VOL 428.0K
RES: $19.18SUP: $17.15SMA50: $17.61SMA200: $17.96
$21.98$20.09$18.19$16.30$14.41RES $19.18SUP $17.15$15.452026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VTS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VTS Butterfly Map → + Track VTS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
23.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VTS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VTS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VTS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VTS)

Energy Rank #92 of 211 ⚔️ OBE vs VTS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (VTS vs. OBE, GRNT, WHK, GPRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #144 by equity capitalization ($725.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. VTS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VTS ACTIVE
Vitesse Energy Inc.
C- 60/100 30.5x — 2.2% -10.38% $725.9M Benchmark Subject
OBE
Obsidian Energy Ltd.
C- 60/100 — — — +0.77% $691.9M /obe-vs-vts →
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources Inc.
C- 60/100 31.3x — 3.8% -2.48% $691.2M /grnt-vs-vts →
WHK
WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)
D 51/100 — — 7.4% -0.16% $762.9M /whk-vs-vts →
GPRK
Geopark Ltd
D+ 55/100 — — — -0.48% $673.6M /gprk-vs-vts →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001944558 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) reported GAAP revenue of $274.0M (+13.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $242.0M , and +17.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.3M, operating cash flow of $170.3M, and free cash flow of $170.3M (+9.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, VTS closed FY2025 with $893.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.12, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $274.0M $25.3M $170.3M $170.3M $893.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $242.0M $21.1M $155.0M $155.0M $810.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $233.9M -$19.7M $141.9M $141.9M — —

3. VTS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VTS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Vitesse Energy Inc. (NYSE: VTS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $15.45 (-10.38% 1D, market cap $725.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, VTS ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VTS compare to OBE and GRNT in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), VTS carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.2%. By comparison, OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.9M) and GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $691.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VTS?

Per VTS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001944558), Vitesse Energy Inc. generated $274.0M in revenue (+13.2% YoY), $25.3M in net income, and $170.3M in free cash flow against $893.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VTS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VTS last traded at $15.45 (-10.38% on volume of 1,176,341 shares), positioning the stock -12.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.61) and -13.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.96). Across its 52-week range of $15.00 to $22.91, VTS sits at the 5.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($14.75 to $16.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: VTS RQD Cockpit VTS 12M Forecast VTS Earnings & Move VTS Dividends & DRIP VTS Insiders & 13F VTS Whale Options VTS Profit Sankey VTS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VTS — Vitesse Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $15.45 (-10.38% 1D, market capitalization $725.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 6.3%, and free cash flow yield of 22.11%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.12, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Vitesse Energy Inc. Is a NYSE-listed company in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Production industry..8B. — for detailed customer or product information.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) reported $274.0M in annual revenue (up from $242.0M in FY2024, +13.2% YoY) and $25.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($233.9M revenue, -$19.7M net income) through FY2025, VTS scaled operating cash flow to $170.3M and free cash flow to $170.3M, backed by $893.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 22.11% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.00 – $22.91 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 30.5x trailing P/E and 45.0x EV/EBITDA against 6.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), VTS carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can VTS sustain or expand its 6.3% operating margin and 2.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $274.0M and free cash flow of $170.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VTS's 25.6x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VTS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vitesse Energy Inc. (VTS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VTS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VTS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.45?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VTS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VTS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.04 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 22.11% FCF yield and Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9 point to strong cash generation and a sound balance sheet.

A 22.11% FCF yield and Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9 point to strong cash generation and a sound balance sheet.. When you look under the hood at VTS, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 2.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $22.91. My 12M target is $21.04.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 30.5x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.55 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $18.30

A 2.2% ROIC against a 30.5 trailing P/E and 45 EV/EBITDA leaves valuation resting on earnings growth the data does not yet show.

A 2.2% ROIC against a 30.5 trailing P/E and 45 EV/EBITDA leaves valuation resting on earnings growth the data does not yet show.. Look at the math on VTS: paying 30.5x trailing P/E for 2.2% ROIC and 6.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $16.10 before getting long.

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