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Stock Ratings / Financials / WAL / options
CBC (65) COLB (67) PB (69) BOKF (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$78.67 +3.12% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.96

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $8.46B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on WAL Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE: WAL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $78.67 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $8.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, WAL ranks #933 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WAL compare to CBC and COLB in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), WAL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, CBC (Central Bancompany Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $8.83B) and COLB (Columbia Banking System Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $8.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WAL leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while CBC leads on capital efficiency (4.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WAL?
β–Ό

Per WAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001212545), Western Alliance Bancorporation generated $135.8M in revenue (+99.7% YoY), $969.0M in net income, and -$2.69B in free cash flow against $92.77B in total assets and $38.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.96 (+0.37%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510038
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (4)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$102 Bull$72 Base$56 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE WAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY WAL SCORES 38/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±5.5% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$74.35+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$76.67+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$77.80+1.1% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$78.67-7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (30) β†’ D- (38)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a WAL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While WAL currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($76.93) and Max Pain ($82.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $102.09.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WALβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œWAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (WAL)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for WAL.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WAL)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of WAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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WAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.90%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $76.29H $78.67L $76.29C $78.67VOL 1.29M
RES: $85.36SUP: $69.35SMA50: $76.93SMA200: $79.68
$86.54$82.41$78.28$74.15$70.02RES $85.36SUP $69.35$78.672026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ WAL Butterfly Map β†’ + Track WAL β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +99.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WAL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WAL)

Financials Rank #933 of 1097 βš”οΈ CBC vs WAL Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (WAL vs. CBC, COLB, PB, BOKF)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) ranks #933 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #212 by equity capitalization ($8.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WAL leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while CBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. PB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with WAL at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
WAL ACTIVE
Western Alliance Bancorporation
D- 38/100 8.8x β€” 2.9% +3.12% $8.46B Benchmark Subject
CBC
Central Bancompany Inc.
C 65/100 22.0x β€” 4.5% +2.59% $8.83B /cbc-vs-wal β†’
COLB
Columbia Banking System Inc.
C+ 67/100 16.0x β€” 1.8% +1.76% $8.84B /colb-vs-wal β†’
PB
Prosperity Bancshares Inc.
C+ 69/100 16.1x β€” 3.3% +2.68% $8.88B /pb-vs-wal β†’
BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation
D+ 56/100 13.9x β€” 2.9% +1.76% $8.05B /bokf-vs-wal β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001212545 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) reported GAAP revenue of $135.8M (+99.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $68.0M , and +37.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $969.0M, operating cash flow of -$2.68B, and free cash flow of -$2.69B (+2.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, WAL closed FY2025 with $92.77B in total assets against $38.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $135.8M $969.0M -$2.68B -$2.69B $92.77B $38.17B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $68.0M $788.0M -$2.74B -$2.75B $80.93B $33.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $98.6M $722.0M -$328.6M -$333.0M $4.67B $1.09B

3. WAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE: WAL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $78.67 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $8.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, WAL ranks #933 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WAL compare to CBC and COLB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), WAL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, CBC (Central Bancompany Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $8.83B) and COLB (Columbia Banking System Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $8.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WAL leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while CBC leads on capital efficiency (4.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WAL?

Per WAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001212545), Western Alliance Bancorporation generated $135.8M in revenue (+99.7% YoY), $969.0M in net income, and -$2.69B in free cash flow against $92.77B in total assets and $38.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WAL last traded at $78.67 (+3.12% on volume of 1,286,256 shares), positioning the stock +2.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($76.93) and -1.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($79.68). Across its 52-week range of $65.82 to $97.23, WAL sits at the 40.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.5% ($74.34 to $83.00).

Direct Sub-Reports: WAL RQD Cockpit WAL 12M Forecast WAL Earnings & Move WAL Dividends & DRIP WAL Insiders & 13F WAL Whale Options WAL Profit Sankey WAL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 38/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

WAL β€” Western Alliance Bancorporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $78.67 (+3.12% 1D, market capitalization $8.46B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of -18.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 0.96x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Western Alliance Bancorporation Common Stock (DE) is listed on the NYSE under WAL and classified in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. β€”: the specific products, customer segments, or revenue model. The source data supplies a sector and industry classification only, so the mechanics of how the company earns its income cannot be described from the supplied material.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) reported $135.8M in annual revenue (up from $68.0M in FY2024, +99.7% YoY) and $969.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($98.6M revenue, $722.0M net income) through FY2025, WAL scaled operating cash flow to -$2.68B and free cash flow to -$2.69B, backed by $92.77B in total assets against $38.17B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.00% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.82 – $97.23 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 8.8x trailing P/E and 27.8x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 0.96x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are supplied. Per the market data, beta is 0.96, which is the only sector-sensitivity measure available and is cited under the Macro Regime Fit pillar.

  • Key Question #1: Can WAL sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 2.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $135.8M and free cash flow of -$2.69B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $38.17B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is WAL's 7.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.96x)?

WAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to WAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $78.67?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WAL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on WAL:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $90.79 (+19.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forward P/E of 7.4 and a Forensic Balance Sheet pillar score of 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9) point to a low-multiple, financia

Don't sleep on WAL's setup in Financials. Forward P/E of 7.4 and a Forensic Balance Sheet pillar score of 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9) point to a low-multiple, financially sound profile.. Beta of 0.96 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (38/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” WAL's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $65.61 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $76.29

A -18% FCF yield, 2.9% ROIC, and a Macro Regime Fit score of 4/20 indicate weak cash conversion and limited sector cushion.

Fading this rally in WAL at $76.29. A -18% FCF yield, 2.9% ROIC, and a Macro Regime Fit score of 4/20 indicate weak cash conversion and limited sector cushion.. With a beta of 0.96 and the stock sitting at $76.29 (52-wk range $65.82–$97.23), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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