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Weibo Corporation (WB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$6.35 +2.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.36

Weibo Corporation (WB) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.53B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ: WB) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.35 (+2.25% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, WB ranks #362 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WB compare to DJT and DV in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), WB carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.6%. By comparison, DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.9%, cap $1.56B) and DV (DoubleVerify Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 41.5x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $2.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRND leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while GRND leads on capital efficiency (29.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WB?
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Per WB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001595761), Weibo Corporation generated $1.30B in revenue (-6.0% YoY), $449.0M in net income, and $477.1M in free cash flow against $7.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.36 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 36.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.6% Base Target
$12 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE WB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY WB SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.7% FCF Margin ($477.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$6.56-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$6.54-5.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$6.18+2.8% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$6.35-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a WB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While WB currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.54) and Max Pain ($6.67) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.84.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WB• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “WB Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (WB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for WB.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of WB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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WB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.95%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $6.30H $6.35L $6.21C $6.35VOL 892.3K
RES: $7.72SUP: $6.00SMA50: $6.54SMA200: $8.10
$10.70$9.45$8.21$6.96$5.71RES $7.72SUP $6.00$6.352026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WB Butterfly Map → + Track WB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WB)

Technology Rank #362 of 715 ⚔️ DJT vs WB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (WB vs. DJT, DV, TRIP, GRND)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Weibo Corporation (WB) ranks #362 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #319 by equity capitalization ($1.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GRND leads on earnings valuation at 23.7x trailing P/E, while GRND leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.7% ROIC and — gross margin. DV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with WB at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
WB ACTIVE
Weibo Corporation
D 48/100 — — 22.6% +2.25% $1.53B Benchmark Subject
DJT
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
E 33/100 — 54.5% -29.9% +1.25% $1.56B /djt-vs-wb →
DV
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc.
B+ 78/100 41.5x 82.2% 7.2% 0.00% $2.10B /dv-vs-wb →
TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc.
D 49/100 27.0x 92.3% 13.0% +2.39% $1.08B /trip-vs-wb →
GRND
Grindr Inc.
C 64/100 23.7x — 29.7% +0.95% $2.20B /grnd-vs-wb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001595761 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Weibo Corporation (WB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.30B (-6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.38B , and -1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $449.0M, operating cash flow of $519.5M, and free cash flow of $477.1M (-17.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, WB closed FY2025 with $7.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.30B $449.0M $519.5M $477.1M $7.09B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.38B $300.8M $639.9M $578.4M $6.50B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.32B $342.6M $672.8M $672.8M — —

3. WB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ: WB) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.35 (+2.25% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, WB ranks #362 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WB compare to DJT and DV in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), WB carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.6%. By comparison, DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.9%, cap $1.56B) and DV (DoubleVerify Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 41.5x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $2.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRND leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while GRND leads on capital efficiency (29.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WB?

Per WB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001595761), Weibo Corporation generated $1.30B in revenue (-6.0% YoY), $449.0M in net income, and $477.1M in free cash flow against $7.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WB last traded at $6.35 (+2.25% on volume of 730,551 shares), positioning the stock -2.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.54) and -21.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.10). Across its 52-week range of $6.10 to $11.28, WB sits at the 4.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($6.09 to $6.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: WB RQD Cockpit WB 12M Forecast WB Earnings & Move WB Dividends & DRIP WB Insiders & 13F WB Whale Options WB Profit Sankey WB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

WB — Weibo Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Weibo Corporation (WB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.35 (+2.25% 1D, market capitalization $1.53B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 22.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Weibo Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating within the Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry. The profile lists a market capitalization of $1.5B. — describes its products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Weibo Corporation (WB) reported $1.30B in annual revenue (up from $1.38B in FY2024, -6.0% YoY) and $449.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.32B revenue, $342.6M net income) through FY2025, WB scaled operating cash flow to $519.5M and free cash flow to $477.1M, backed by $7.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.10 – $11.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector and industry labels (Technology; Computer Software: Programming Data Processing) are the only structural context. A prospective investor would watch advertising-demand conditions noted in the Seeking Alpha preview, since the wire identifies top-funnel ad yield as a pressure point, but the source does not quantify any ripple effect.

  • Key Question #1: Can WB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 22.6% ROIC against Computer Software: Programming Data Processing peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.30B and free cash flow of $477.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is WB's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

WB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Weibo Corporation (WB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to WB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on WB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.14 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Roarable rates the fundamental cash engine at 14/20 on a 22.6% ROIC, and FY 2025 net income rose to $449.0M from $300.8M.

Roarable rates the fundamental cash engine at 14/20 on a 22.6% ROIC, and FY 2025 net income rose to $449.0M from $300.8M.. When you look under the hood at WB, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 22.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $11.28. My 12M target is $7.14.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — WB's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.03 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $6.21

The RQD score of 49 (Grade D, Underperform / Distribution Warning) is weighed down by a 0% FCF yield, a 4/20 whale 13F flow score, and

Careful chasing WB at $6.21. The RQD score of 49 (Grade D, Underperform / Distribution Warning) is weighed down by a 0% FCF yield, a 4/20 whale 13F flow score, and a Fitch outlook change to negative.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $5.03 on multiple compression.

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