How profitable is Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), XELB converted $37.0M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Industrials / XELB / financials

REFR (31) RMCO (29) NTIP (43) VHC (28) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Where is XELB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XELB last traded at $0.36 (-2.57% on volume of 20,426 shares), positioning the stock -46.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.67) and -74.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.42). Across its 52-week range of $0.27 to $2.47, XELB sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.40).

$0.36 -2.57% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.36

Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XELB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XELB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Xcel Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $0.36 (-2.57% 1D, market cap $2.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, XELB ranks #380 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XELB compare to REFR and RMCO in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Multi-Sector Companies), XELB carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, REFR (Research Frontiers Incorporated) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $12.2M) and RMCO (Royalty Management Holding Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.7%, cap $34.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XELB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RMCO leads on capital efficiency (-1.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XELB?

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Per XELB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083220), Xcel Brands Inc. generated $37.0M in revenue (+348.6% YoY), -$17.46T in net income, and -$7.0M in free cash flow against $38.9M in total assets and $9.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.36 (-0.65%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XELB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY XELB SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$0.39+7.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$0.42-19% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$0.34+5.9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$0.36-8.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XELB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XELB currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.67) and Max Pain ($0.38) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.59.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XELB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “XELB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How XELB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $57.8M

FY24

Rev $8.3M

FY25

Rev $37.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$37.0M	52%	-35.7%	-$17.46T	-$7.0M	-39.8%
FY 2024	$8.3M	94.6%	-80%	-$22.39T	-$4.8M	-45%
FY 2023	$57.8M	52%	-35.7%	-$21.05T	-$6.5M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XELB)

✓Walkthrough of XELB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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XELB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -84.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $0.37H $0.37L $0.36C $0.36VOL 36.4K

RES: $0.39SUP: $0.15SMA50: $0.67SMA200: $1.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XELB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XELB Butterfly Map → + Track XELB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +348.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XELB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XELB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XELB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XELB)

Industrials Rank #380 of 486 ⚔️ REFR vs XELB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (XELB vs. REFR, RMCO, NTIP, VHC)

Industry: Multi-Sector Companies (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) ranks #380 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #478 by equity capitalization ($2.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XELB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while RMCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -1.7% ROIC and 16.3% gross margin. NTIP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 43/100 (D-) compared with XELB at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
XELB ACTIVE Xcel Brands Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.57%	$2.6M	Benchmark Subject
REFR Research Frontiers Incorporated	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.94%	$12.2M	/refr-vs-xelb →
RMCO Royalty Management Holding Corporation (Class A)	E	29/100	—	16.3%	-1.7%	-1.30%	$34.9M	/rmco-vs-xelb →
NTIP Network-1 Technologies Inc.	D-	43/100	—	72.0%	-10.0%	+3.25%	$35.2M	/ntip-vs-xelb →
VHC VirnetX Holding Corp	E	28/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.95%	$39.8M	/vhc-vs-xelb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001083220 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) reported GAAP revenue of $37.0M (+348.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.3M , and -35.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$17.46T, operating cash flow of -$7.0M, and free cash flow of -$7.0M (-45.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, XELB closed FY2025 with $38.9M in total assets against $9.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$37.0M	-$17.46T	-$7.0M	-$7.0M	$38.9M	$9.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.3M	-$22.39T	-$4.7M	-$4.8M	$53.8M	$6.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$57.8M	-$21.05T	-$6.5M	-$6.5M	—	—

3. XELB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XELB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does XELB compare to REFR and RMCO in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XELB?

Where is XELB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XELB last traded at $0.36 (-2.57% on volume of 20,426 shares), positioning the stock -46.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.67) and -74.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.42). Across its 52-week range of $0.27 to $2.47, XELB sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: XELB RQD Cockpit XELB 12M Forecast XELB Earnings & Move XELB Dividends & DRIP XELB Insiders & 13F XELB Whale Options XELB Profit Sankey XELB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

XELB — Xcel Brands Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $0.36 (-2.57% 1D, market capitalization $2.6M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.53x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Multi-Sector Companies industry (Industrials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $2.6M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Multi-Sector Companies peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) reported $37.0M in annual revenue (up from $8.3M in FY2024, +348.6% YoY) and -$17.46T in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($57.8M revenue, -$21.05T net income) through FY2025, XELB scaled operating cash flow to -$7.0M and free cash flow to -$7.0M, backed by $38.9M in total assets against $9.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.27 – $2.47 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Multi-Sector Companies (Industrials), XELB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can XELB sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Multi-Sector Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $37.0M and free cash flow of -$7.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $9.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is XELB's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

XELB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XELB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Xcel Brands, Inc Estimates – NASDAQ:XELB

TradingView report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

12 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Moving In Friday's After-Market Session

Benzinga report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Why Is Xcel Brands (NASDAQ:XELB) Trading on 244.5 Times Average Volume as a Penny Stock Up 2.84%? The Catalyst and the Risks

kalkine.ca report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Xcel Brands Slides As Insider Purchases Lose Another US$78k

Simply Wall St report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

10 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Moving In Friday's Intraday Session - Xcel Brands (NASDAQ:XELB), Agencia

Benzinga report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Xcel Brands (XELB) Falls 6.25% to $0.60, Testing Key Support Near $0.57 - Head and Shoulders

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

XELB Q2 2026 Earnings: Loss Per Share Comes In Slightly Wider Than Expected as Revenue Detail Is Absent

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Xcel Brands Inc. (XELB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 11d ago

12 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Gainers J-Star Hldg (NASDAQ:YMAT) stock moved upwards by 42.2% to $2.73 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $9.0 million. U Power (NASDAQ:UCAR) shares moved

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XELB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.36?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XELB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.47 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Debt/Equity 0.53, indicating the balance sheet is not in the most distressed ra

Picked up a starter position in XELB in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $0.37. Balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Debt/Equity 0.53, indicating the balance sheet is not in the most distressed range.. Trading inside a $0.27–$2.47 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Multi-Sector Companies multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $0.37 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.30 (-18.9%)

Spot @ $0.37

ROIC of -35% and 0% FCF yield show the business is currently destroying capital and generating no free cash flow.

ROIC of -35% and 0% FCF yield show the business is currently destroying capital and generating no free cash flow.. Look at the math on XELB: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Multi-Sector Companies demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $0.33 before getting long.