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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$118.16 -0.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $117.78

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. As an exchange-traded fund, single-company GAAP gross margins, Altman-Z, and CEO Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for fund structure; its score reflects basket trend, institutional flow, and macro regime alignment.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.00B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $118.16 (-0.71% 1D, market cap $22.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, XLY ranks #10 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XLY compare to JEPQ and XLI in the ETF / Index sector?
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Within the ETF / Index sector (GICS Consumer Discretionary), XLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, JEPQ (JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $21.00B) and XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $21.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XLY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XLY leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XLY?
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For Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY), key quantitative strengths include Diversified GICS Consumer Discretionary basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk and Deep intraday secondary-market liquidity with transparent underlying index holdings., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $117.78 (-0.32%)🧬 ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • Liquid Basket
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C-
Fund (14)Whales (12)Struct (17)Macro (7)Flow (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$145 Bull$123 Base$96 Bear
📬 FREE XLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY XLY SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+17/20 pts (25% of score)

Diversified basket structure mitigates single-issuer 10-K restatement risk

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (66.9) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$111.50+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$115.53-0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$115.33+2.5% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$118.16+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the XLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, XLY faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($113.13) or 200D SMA ($115.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($122.95) toward Bear Floor ($95.90).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “XLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Quarterly Rebalance / Distribution) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±2.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (XLY)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for XLY.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating XLY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on XLY
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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XLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $119.0H $119.0L $118.2C $118.2VOL 10.08M
RES: $122.0SUP: $107.8SMA50: $113.1SMA200: $115.5
$123.2$119.1$114.9$110.8$106.7RES $122.0SUP $107.8$118.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XLY Butterfly Map → + Track XLY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
ETF / Index Composite — N/A for Fund Structure

Single-issuer corporate Reverse-DCF growth hurdles do not apply to index funds or ETFs.

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XLY)

ETF / Index Rank #10 of 40 ⚔️ JEPQ vs XLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head ETF / Index Peer Comparison (XLY vs. JEPQ, XLI, XLC, TQQQ)

Industry: GICS Consumer Discretionary (1 Tracked Issuers)

Across 40 tracked ETF / Index securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) ranks #10 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #19 by equity capitalization ($22.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XLY leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with ETF composite structure and benchmark tracking. XLY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XLY ACTIVE
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
C+ 67/100 — — — -0.71% $22.00B Benchmark Subject
JEPQ
JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF
D 44/100 — — — -3.13% $21.00B /jepq-vs-xly →
XLI
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
D+ 53/100 — — — -1.63% $21.00B /xli-vs-xly →
XLC
Communication Services Select Sector SPDR
D- 36/100 — — — -1.31% $20.00B /xlc-vs-xly →
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (3x Bull)
E 34/100 — — — -11.69% $25.00B /tqqq-vs-xly →

2. XLY ETF Structure, Technical Regime & Benchmark Role Breakdown

EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND / COMPOSITE VEHICLE • NYSE

Because Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) is structured as an exchange-traded fund / composite basket rather than a single operating corporation filing 10-K GAAP income statements, Roarable evaluates XLY on technical trend regime, moving-average dispersion, 52-week range positioning, relative strength (RSI-14), and secondary-market share volume liquidity. At $118.16, XLY trades vs. its 50-day SMA of $113.13 and 200-day SMA of $115.48 on daily liquidity of 10,075,823 shares.

50D SMA Level
$113.13
Medium-Term Trend Anchor
200D SMA Level
$115.48
Institutional Secular Line
52-Week Range Pos
65.0%
$105.19 – $125.01
RSI-14 Momentum
66.9
BULLISH MOMENTUM
Volume Liquidity
10,075,823
AUM Cap $22.00B

3. XLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $118.16 (-0.71% 1D, market cap $22.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, XLY ranks #10 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XLY compare to JEPQ and XLI in the ETF / Index sector?

Within the ETF / Index sector (GICS Consumer Discretionary), XLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, JEPQ (JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $21.00B) and XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $21.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XLY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XLY leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XLY?

For Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY), key quantitative strengths include Diversified GICS Consumer Discretionary basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk and Deep intraday secondary-market liquidity with transparent underlying index holdings., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XLY last traded at $118.16 (-0.71% on volume of 10,075,823 shares), positioning the stock +4.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($113.13) and +2.32% above its 200-day simple moving average ($115.48). Across its 52-week range of $105.19 to $125.01, XLY sits at the 65.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.6% ($115.09 to $121.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: XLY RQD Cockpit XLY 12M Forecast XLY Earnings & Move XLY Dividends & DRIP XLY Insiders & 13F XLY Whale Options XLY Profit Sankey XLY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

XLY — Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $118.16 (-0.71% 1D, market capitalization $22.00B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) is an exchange-traded fund listed on NYSE in the ETF / Index sector, GICS Consumer Discretionary industry,..0B in assets under management. Because it is a fund rather than an operating company, it does not sell products or generate revenue directly; its economic exposure is to the holdings it tracks.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Diversified GICS Consumer Discretionary basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. Deep intraday secondary-market liquidity with transparent underlying index holdings. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $105.19 – $125.01 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies in the conventional operating sense do not apply to a fund. The relevant second-order exposure is to the constituent companies held inside the fund, whose identities and weights are not itemized in source data beyond the Amazon and Tesla references in the news. Investors should watch concentration in those largest names as a potential second-order driver of fund performance, since the news headlines indicate that the largest stocks receive meaningful weight. Sector correlations to other consumer discretionary names are not quantified in source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can XLY sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against GICS Consumer Discretionary peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $125.01 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is XLY's equity valuation to ETF / Index capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

XLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $118.16?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $155.97 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Favorable insider conviction (16 / 20) and a solid forensic balance-sheet reading (16 / 20, Piotroski F 6/9) support the composite.

Long XLY at $118.16 targeting $155.97. Favorable insider conviction (16 / 20) and a solid forensic balance-sheet reading (16 / 20, Piotroski F 6/9) support the composite.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $105.19 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in GICS Consumer Discretionary. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $100.44 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $118.16

Weak Macro Regime Fit (4 / 20) and a zero fundamental cash engine (7 / 20) leave the composite at a D+ with a trim label.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short XLY above $118.16. Weak Macro Regime Fit (4 / 20) and a zero fundamental cash engine (7 / 20) leave the composite at a D+ with a trim label.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $125.01.

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