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Why YMM Stock surged +4.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$8.72 +4.18% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.77

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.68B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is YMM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (NYSE: YMM) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $8.72 (+4.18% 1D, market cap $8.68B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, YMM ranks #87 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does YMM compare to S and PCTY in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), YMM carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.2x, gross margin of 71.9%, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, S (SentinelOne Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.0%, cap $8.75B) and PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 38.7x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $8.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DBX leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while DBX leads on capital efficiency (83.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for YMM?
▼

Per YMM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001838413), Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American generated $1.66B in revenue (+74.9% YoY), $0 in net income, and $661.6M in free cash flow against $6.34B in total assets and $196.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (71.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.77 (+0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 39.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk B
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$14 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE YMM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for YMM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY YMM SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.55 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$8.54-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$8.50-4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$8.08+7.9% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$8.72+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the YMM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, YMM faces multiple-compression risk if 18.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.39) or 200D SMA ($8.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.15) toward Bear Floor ($7.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $YMM• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “YMM Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why YMM Stock surged +4.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) surged +4.18% to $8.72, trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($7.45 – $13.14). Solid 71.9% gross margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($7.45 – $13.14) with RSI-14 at 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6% around $8.72 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 0% gross margin and $661.6M annual free cash flow.
Live YMM Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 13d ago
Rollins (ROL) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates

Rollins (ROL) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -2.86% and -3.15%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 41d ago
Is Full Truck Alliance (NYSE:YMM) Below Fair Value On Earnings?

Full Truck Alliance has seen a volatile share price journey, and the recent track record now puts a spotlight on whether the current US$8.45 level is adequately supported by its earnings. With such mixed returns over dif

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (YMM Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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YMM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $8.09H $8.72L $8.09C $8.72VOL 6.96M
RES: $8.91SUP: $7.94SMA50: $8.39SMA200: $8.77
$11.17$10.16$9.16$8.15$7.14RES $8.91SUP $7.94$8.722026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

YMM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 YMM Butterfly Map → + Track YMM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +74.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on YMM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for YMM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for YMM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (YMM)

Technology Rank #87 of 715 ⚔️ S vs YMM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (YMM vs. S, PCTY, GTLB, DBX)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) ranks #87 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #165 by equity capitalization ($8.68B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DBX leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while DBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 83.1% ROIC and 80.1% gross margin. DBX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with YMM at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
YMM ACTIVE
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American
C+ 69/100 18.2x 71.9% 9.0% +4.18% $8.68B Benchmark Subject
S
SentinelOne Inc.
C 65/100 — 74.1% -15.0% -7.91% $8.75B /s-vs-ymm →
PCTY
Paylocity Holding Corporation
C- 61/100 38.7x 74.5% 7.1% +1.86% $8.92B /pcty-vs-ymm →
GTLB
GitLab Inc.
C+ 69/100 — 87.4% -5.3% -3.66% $9.01B /gtlb-vs-ymm →
DBX
Dropbox Inc.
B+ 76/100 16.1x 80.1% 83.1% -1.68% $8.18B /dbx-vs-ymm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001838413 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+74.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $949.4M ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $661.6M, and free cash flow of $661.6M (+62.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, YMM closed FY2025 with $6.34B in total assets against $196.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.55, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.66B $0 $661.6M $661.6M $6.34B $196.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $949.4M $0 $406.9M $406.9M $5.66B $194.3M

3. YMM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is YMM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (NYSE: YMM) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $8.72 (+4.18% 1D, market cap $8.68B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, YMM ranks #87 in composite RQD confidence.

How does YMM compare to S and PCTY in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), YMM carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.2x, gross margin of 71.9%, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, S (SentinelOne Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.0%, cap $8.75B) and PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 38.7x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $8.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DBX leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while DBX leads on capital efficiency (83.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for YMM?

Per YMM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001838413), Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American generated $1.66B in revenue (+74.9% YoY), $0 in net income, and $661.6M in free cash flow against $6.34B in total assets and $196.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (71.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is YMM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

YMM last traded at $8.72 (+4.18% on volume of 5,610,221 shares), positioning the stock +3.93% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.39) and -0.57% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.77). Across its 52-week range of $7.45 to $13.14, YMM sits at the 22.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($8.20 to $9.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: YMM RQD Cockpit YMM 12M Forecast YMM Earnings & Move YMM Dividends & DRIP YMM Insiders & 13F YMM Whale Options YMM Profit Sankey YMM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

YMM — Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $8.72 (+4.18% 1D, market capitalization $8.68B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.0%, gross margin of 71.9%, operating margin of 25.2%, and free cash flow yield of 6.62%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.41x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.55, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) reported $1.66B in annual revenue (up from $949.4M in FY2024, +74.9% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($949.4M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, YMM scaled operating cash flow to $661.6M and free cash flow to $661.6M, backed by $6.34B in total assets against $196.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (71.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.45 – $13.14 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.2x trailing P/E and 11.3x EV/EBITDA against 25.2% operating margins and a 1.41x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), YMM carries a macro regime beta of 1.41 and gross margin of 71.9%.

  • Key Question #1: Can YMM sustain or expand its 25.2% operating margin and 9.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.66B and free cash flow of $661.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $196.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is YMM's 16.9x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.41x)?

YMM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to YMM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

YMM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.72?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON YMM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on YMM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.21 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet strength (Altman Z 12.55, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.03) combined with rising FY 2025 operating income of $5

Picked up a starter position in YMM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $8.37. Forensic balance sheet strength (Altman Z 12.55, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.03) combined with rising FY 2025 operating income of $592.9M and FCF of $661.6M.. Trading inside a $7.45–$13.09 52-week range with 6.62% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 18.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (71.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.20 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $8.37

Weak institutional flow (Whale 13F Flow 5/20) and elevated beta of 1.41 mean the stock may lack sponsorship and amplify market volatili

Careful chasing YMM at $8.37. Weak institutional flow (Whale 13F Flow 5/20) and elevated beta of 1.41 mean the stock may lack sponsorship and amplify market volatility.. Gross margin is 71.9%, but operating margin is 25.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $7.20 on multiple compression.

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