ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Materials / CMC
GGB (59) TX (53) SIM (47) CRS (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$65.86 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.08

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.04B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CMC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $65.86 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $7.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CMC ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CMC compare to GGB and TX in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), CMC carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 85.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.5%. By comparison, GGB (Gerdau S.A.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $9.22B) and TX (Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GGB leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while CRS leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMC?
▼

Per CMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-31, CIK 0000022444), Commercial Metals Company generated $279.7M in revenue (-82.6% YoY), $84.7M in net income, and $312.2M in free cash flow against $9.24B in total assets and $2.22B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.08 (+0.34%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 111.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (12)Macro (6)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$89 Bull$62 Base$49 Bear
📬 FREE CMC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CMC SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 111.6% FCF Margin ($312.2M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.40 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.3) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$65.29-1.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$64.25-0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$64.16+2.6% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$65.86-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CMC currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($65.35) and Max Pain ($69.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $89.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
47.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.40>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE34% OF RANGE
L: $56$65.86H: $85
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on CMC

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

1.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.32% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 2.40 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (37)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CMC
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 85x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CMC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.79%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $65.70H $65.86L $63.98C $65.86VOL 834.2K
RES: $68.30SUP: $57.29SMA50: $65.35SMA200: $68.99
$81.31$75.52$69.74$63.95$58.16RES $68.30SUP $57.29$65.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CMC Butterfly Map → + Track CMC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -82.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMC)

Materials Rank #114 of 270 ⚔️ GGB vs CMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (CMC vs. GGB, TX, SIM, CRS)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Metals Company (CMC) ranks #114 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #56 by equity capitalization ($7.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GGB leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while CRS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.9% ROIC and 26.7% gross margin. CRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with CMC at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CMC ACTIVE
Commercial Metals Company
D 46/100 85.3x — 1.5% +2.94% $7.04B Benchmark Subject
GGB
Gerdau S.A.
C- 59/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.43% $9.22B /ggb-vs-cmc →
TX
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)
D+ 53/100 — — — -1.19% $10.36B /tx-vs-cmc →
SIM
Grupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V.
D 47/100 — — — +1.37% $4.26B /sim-vs-cmc →
CRS
Carpenter Technology Corporation
C- 61/100 39.4x 26.7% 16.9% +2.78% $14.02B /crs-vs-cmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-31 • CIK 0000022444 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-31), Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported GAAP revenue of $279.7M (-82.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.60B , and -90.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $84.7M, operating cash flow of $715.1M, and free cash flow of $312.2M (-45.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMC closed FY2025 with $9.24B in total assets against $2.22B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-08-31 $279.7M $84.7M $715.1M $312.2M $9.24B $2.22B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-08-31 $1.60B $485.5M $899.7M $575.4M $6.77B $1.24B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-08-31 $2.84B $859.8M $1.34B $1.34B $3.97B $929.9M

3. CMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $65.86 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $7.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CMC ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CMC compare to GGB and TX in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), CMC carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 85.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.5%. By comparison, GGB (Gerdau S.A.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $9.22B) and TX (Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GGB leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while CRS leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMC?

Per CMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-31, CIK 0000022444), Commercial Metals Company generated $279.7M in revenue (-82.6% YoY), $84.7M in net income, and $312.2M in free cash flow against $9.24B in total assets and $2.22B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMC last traded at $65.86 (+2.94% on volume of 1,451,053 shares), positioning the stock +0.78% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.35) and -4.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($68.99). Across its 52-week range of $55.97 to $84.87, CMC sits at the 34.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($61.05 to $70.67).

Direct Sub-Reports: CMC RQD Cockpit CMC 12M Forecast CMC Earnings & Move CMC Dividends & DRIP CMC Insiders & 13F CMC Whale Options CMC Profit Sankey CMC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CMC — Commercial Metals Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-08-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $65.86 (+2.94% 1D, market capitalization $7.04B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 5.1%, and free cash flow yield of 4.32%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.95x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.40, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.48x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Commercial Metals Company is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Materials sector, Steel/Iron Ore industry. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue model details are — The profile section confirms the sector and industry classification and the $7.2B market capitalization only.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-08-31), Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported $279.7M in annual revenue (up from $1.60B in FY2024, -82.6% YoY) and $84.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.84B revenue, $859.8M net income) through FY2025, CMC scaled operating cash flow to $715.1M and free cash flow to $312.2M, backed by $9.24B in total assets against $2.22B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 4.32% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $55.97 – $84.87 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 85.3x trailing P/E and 18.4x EV/EBITDA against 5.1% operating margins and a 0.95x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — beyond the Materials / Steel/Iron Ore classification. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify specific ripple paths from this data alone.

  • Key Question #1: Can CMC sustain or expand its 5.1% operating margin and 1.5% ROIC against Steel/Iron Ore peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $279.7M and free cash flow of $312.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.22B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CMC's 79.3x forward P/E multiple to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.95x)?

CMC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commercial Metals Company (CMC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CMC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CMC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $65.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CMC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CMC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $83.17 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the news wire, Q4 revenue of $2.66B beat a $2.56B FactSet estimate and a $78.3 price target implies 20% upside.

Here is why I am bullish on CMC here at $63.98: Per the news wire, Q4 revenue of $2.66B beat a $2.56B FactSet estimate and a $78.3 price target implies 20% upside.. Compare CMC's 5.1% operating margin and 1.5% ROIC against the rest of Steel/Iron Ore. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $60.78 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CMC's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $54.38 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $63.98

Per the market data, P/E (TTM) of 85.3 and ROIC of 1.5% leave little return on capital for a stock scored D at 48.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CMC above $63.98. Per the market data, P/E (TTM) of 85.3 and ROIC of 1.5% leave little return on capital for a stock scored D at 48.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (4.32%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $84.87.

LIVE TAPE