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STRW (64) MITT (49) SITC (59) RC (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$3.42 +1.79% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.42

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $186.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $3.42 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $186.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ACRE ranks #955 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACRE compare to STRW and MITT in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ACRE carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, STRW (Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $179.7M) and MITT (TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 8.7%, cap $178.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACRE?
β–Ό

Per ACRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001529377), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation generated $54.8M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$902.0K in net income, and $21.4M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.42 (+0.13%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) β€’ 38.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510037
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ACRE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ACRE SCORES 37/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy β€’ Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$3.55-7.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$3.29+4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$3.45-0.9% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$3.42-8.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (45) β†’ D- (37)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACRE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ACRE currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.96) and Max Pain ($3.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.18.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACREβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œACRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±8.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ACRE)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ACRE.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACRE)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ACRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ACRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.73%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.42H $3.42L $3.36C $3.42VOL 526.5K
RES: $4.65SUP: $3.03SMA50: $3.96SMA200: $4.65
$5.48$4.85$4.22$3.59$2.96RES $4.65SUP $3.03$3.422026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ACRE Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ACRE β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACRE today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACRE)

Financials Rank #955 of 1097 βš”οΈ STRW vs ACRE Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ACRE vs. STRW, MITT, SITC, RC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) ranks #955 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #894 by equity capitalization ($186.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MITT leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and β€” gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with ACRE at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ACRE ACTIVE
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -0.2% +1.79% $186.4M Benchmark Subject
STRW
Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.
C 64/100 23.5x β€” 85.0% -1.50% $179.7M /strw-vs-acre β†’
MITT
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.
D 49/100 3.7x β€” 8.7% +3.04% $178.1M /mitt-vs-acre β†’
SITC
SITE Centers Corp.
C- 59/100 β€” β€” 53.1% -1.61% $195.7M /sitc-vs-acre β†’
RC
Ready Capital Corporation
D- 41/100 β€” β€” -14.3% 0.00% $176.8M /rc-vs-acre β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001529377 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) reported GAAP revenue of $54.8M (-21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $69.7M , and -41.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$902.0K, operating cash flow of $21.4M, and free cash flow of $21.4M (-39.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACRE closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $54.8M -$902.0K $21.4M $21.4M $1.62B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $69.7M -$35.0M $35.5M $35.5M $1.75B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $92.9M -$38.9M $46.8M $46.8M β€” β€”

3. ACRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $3.42 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $186.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ACRE ranks #955 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACRE compare to STRW and MITT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ACRE carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, STRW (Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $179.7M) and MITT (TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 8.7%, cap $178.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACRE?

Per ACRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001529377), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation generated $54.8M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$902.0K in net income, and $21.4M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACRE last traded at $3.42 (+1.79% on volume of 572,708 shares), positioning the stock -13.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.96) and -26.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.65). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.89, ACRE sits at the 9.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.2% ($3.14 to $3.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: ACRE RQD Cockpit ACRE 12M Forecast ACRE Earnings & Move ACRE Dividends & DRIP ACRE Insiders & 13F ACRE Whale Options ACRE Profit Sankey ACRE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 37/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ACRE β€” Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.42 (+1.79% 1D, market capitalization $186.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.2%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 11.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) reported $54.8M in annual revenue (up from $69.7M in FY2024, -21.3% YoY) and -$902.0K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($92.9M revenue, -$38.9M net income) through FY2025, ACRE scaled operating cash flow to $21.4M and free cash flow to $21.4M, backed by $1.62B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 11.25% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.16 – $5.89 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ACRE sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -0.2% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $54.8M and free cash flow of $21.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ACRE's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ACRE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ACRE Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ACRE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $3.42?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ACRE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ACRE:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.27 (+27.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

An 11.25% FCF yield and a 4/9 Piotroski score point to cash generation and balance sheet strength that the market may be underpricing.

An 11.25% FCF yield and a 4/9 Piotroski score point to cash generation and balance sheet strength that the market may be underpricing.. When you look under the hood at ACRE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 8/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -0.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $5.89. My 12M target is $4.27.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ACRE's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.62 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $3.36

Negative net income in every reported year, a -0.2% ROIC, and revenue falling from $92.9M to $54.8M show a deteriorating earnings engin

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ACRE: Negative net income in every reported year, a -0.2% ROIC, and revenue falling from $92.9M to $54.8M show a deteriorating earnings engine.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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