How profitable is Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ADPT converted $277.0M of revenue into a 74.2% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ADPT / financials

RLAY (39) IOVA (47) TARS (50) CRSP (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$25.80 +2.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.89

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.00B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ: ADPT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $25.80 (+2.95% 1D, market cap $4.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ADPT ranks #285 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADPT compare to RLAY and IOVA in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ADPT carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.2%, and ROIC of -12.5%. By comparison, RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.79B) and IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADPT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADPT?

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Per ADPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001478320), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation generated $277.0M in revenue (+54.8% YoY), -$59.5M in net income, and -$48.9M in free cash flow against $512.7M in total assets and $126.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.89 (+0.34%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ADPT SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.32 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$25.58-4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$24.41+15.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$28.17-8.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$25.80-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADPT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADPT currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.46) and Max Pain ($27.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.28.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ADPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ADPT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $170.3M

FY24

Rev $179.0M

FY25

Rev $277.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$277.0M	74.2%	-20.6%	-$59.5M	-$48.9M	-16.4%
FY 2024	$179.0M	59.7%	-90.8%	-$159.5M	-$98.9M	-44.7%
FY 2023	$170.3M	74.2%	-133.3%	-$225.3M	-$164.0M	-12%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADPT)

✓Walkthrough of ADPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ADPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +87.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-04O $26.64H $26.64L $25.06C $25.80VOL 2.34M

RES: $33.26SUP: $24.61SMA50: $26.46SMA200: $19.79

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADPT Butterfly Map → + Track ADPT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +54.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADPT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADPT)

Health Care Rank #285 of 1015 ⚔️ RLAY vs ADPT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ADPT vs. RLAY, IOVA, TARS, CRSP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) ranks #285 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #177 by equity capitalization ($4.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADPT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ADPT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.5% ROIC and 74.2% gross margin. TARS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with ADPT at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ADPT ACTIVE Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation	D	48/100	—	74.2%	-12.5%	+2.95%	$4.00B	Benchmark Subject
RLAY Relay Therapeutics Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.93%	$3.79B	/rlay-vs-adpt →
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.	D	47/100	—	34.3%	-35.0%	+10.10%	$3.63B	/iova-vs-adpt →
TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-24.1%	-0.93%	$3.61B	/tars-vs-adpt →
CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG	D-	35/100	—	—	-30.6%	0.00%	$4.83B	/crsp-vs-adpt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001478320 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) reported GAAP revenue of $277.0M (+54.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $179.0M , and +62.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$59.5M, operating cash flow of -$46.0M, and free cash flow of -$48.9M (+50.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADPT closed FY2025 with $512.7M in total assets against $126.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.32, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$277.0M	-$59.5M	-$46.0M	-$48.9M	$512.7M	$126.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$179.0M	-$159.5M	-$95.2M	-$98.9M	$539.4M	$132.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$170.3M	-$225.3M	-$156.3M	-$164.0M	$2.47B	$578.6M

3. ADPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ADPT compare to RLAY and IOVA in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADPT?

Where is ADPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADPT last traded at $25.80 (+2.95% on volume of 1,512,902 shares), positioning the stock -2.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.46) and +30.37% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.79). Across its 52-week range of $12.00 to $30.74, ADPT sits at the 73.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($22.86 to $28.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADPT RQD Cockpit ADPT 12M Forecast ADPT Earnings & Move ADPT Dividends & DRIP ADPT Insiders & 13F ADPT Whale Options ADPT Profit Sankey ADPT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $25.80 (+2.95% 1D, market capitalization $4.00B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -12.5%, gross margin of 74.2%, operating margin of -20.6%, and free cash flow yield of -1.09%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.32, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.58x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Industry. Per the financials, reported revenue was $277.0M for FY 2025, up from $179.0M in FY 2024 and $170.3M in FY 2023. Gross margin is reported at 74.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) reported $277.0M in annual revenue (up from $179.0M in FY2024, +54.8% YoY) and -$59.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($170.3M revenue, -$225.3M net income) through FY2025, ADPT scaled operating cash flow to -$46.0M and free cash flow to -$48.9M, backed by $512.7M in total assets against $126.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.09% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.00 – $30.74 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -20.6% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), ADPT carries a macro regime beta of 1.01 and gross margin of 74.2%.

Key Question #1: Can ADPT sustain or expand its -20.6% operating margin and -12.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $277.0M and free cash flow of -$48.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $126.6M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADPT's 26.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

ADPT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT) Rallies on Earnings Beat, Raised Outlook, and Cash-Flow Targets

Yahoo Finance report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $28.94, Implies 9% Upside

TradingView report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 2d ago

Adaptive biotechnologies president & COO Rubinstein sells $897k stock

Investing.com report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 2d ago

Adaptive Biotechnologies: Getting Paid Every Step Of The Way To A Myeloma Cure (ADPT)

Seeking Alpha report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 2d ago

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) Stock Rated "Moderate Buy" by Sell-Side Brokerages

MarketBeat report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 2d ago

An officer exercises options and sells Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) shares under a preset plan.

Stock Titan report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 2d ago

Adaptive Biotechnologies (NASDAQ:ADPT) COO Julie Rubinstein Sells 11,881 Shares of Stock

MarketBeat report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 2d ago

COO sold 35,643 shares and exercised options at $12.14 at Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT).

Stock Titan report covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADPT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADPT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.37 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew to $277.0M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed to -$59.5M and debt fell to $126.6M, and institutional flow scores 17/20 i

The street is overcomplicating Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT). Revenue grew to $277.0M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed to -$59.5M and debt fell to $126.6M, and institutional flow scores 17/20 in the RQD rating.. With an RQD score of 48/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $28.77.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.01 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $26.64 and keeping dry powder in case we test $24.78.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.31 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $26.64

ROIC of -12.5%, FCF yield of -1.09%, and an insider conviction score of 5/20 show the business is not yet generating cash and insiders

I respect the product at Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, but the stock at $26.64 is a different story. ROIC of -12.5%, FCF yield of -1.09%, and an insider conviction score of 5/20 show the business is not yet generating cash and insiders are selling.. FCF yield is -1.09% and RQD sits at 48/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?