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Stock Ratings / Health Care / DNLI
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Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$18.86 -0.42% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DNLI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DNLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: DNLI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $18.86 (-0.42% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, DNLI ranks #588 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DNLI compare to BEAM and ADMA in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), DNLI carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BEAM (Beam Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.1%, cap $2.81B) and ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 32.9%, cap $2.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADMA leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while ADMA leads on capital efficiency (32.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DNLI?
▼

Per DNLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714899), Denali Therapeutics Inc. generated $1.55B in revenue (+14.0% YoY), -$512.5M in net income, and -$422.1M in free cash flow against $1.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (4)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target
$29 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE DNLI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DNLI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DNLI SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$18.40+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$18.93+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$19.22-1.9% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$18.86-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DNLI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DNLI currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.42) and Max Pain ($19.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.67.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DNLI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DNLI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
45.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
10.87>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE38% OF RANGE
L: $14$18.86H: $27
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on DNLI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.67% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 10.87 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (23)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 4/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like DNLI
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DNLI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DNLI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DNLI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.02%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $19.32H $19.32L $18.86C $18.86VOL 1.31M
RES: $19.49SUP: $16.25SMA50: $20.42SMA200: $21.24
$28.00$25.11$22.22$19.32$16.43RES $19.49SUP $16.25$18.862026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DNLI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DNLI Butterfly Map → + Track DNLI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DNLI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DNLI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DNLI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DNLI)

Health Care Rank #588 of 1015 ⚔️ BEAM vs DNLI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (DNLI vs. BEAM, ADMA, TARS, RXRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) ranks #588 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #206 by equity capitalization ($3.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADMA leads on earnings valuation at 17.9x trailing P/E, while ADMA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 32.9% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. ADMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with DNLI at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DNLI ACTIVE
Denali Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -0.42% $3.03B Benchmark Subject
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -32.1% -4.99% $2.81B /beam-vs-dnli →
ADMA
ADMA Biologics Inc
C+ 69/100 17.9x 57.4% 32.9% -3.07% $2.56B /adma-vs-dnli →
TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 — — -24.1% -2.04% $3.69B /tars-vs-dnli →
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 40/100 — 5.0% -35.0% -4.96% $2.41B /rxrx-vs-dnli →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001714899 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.55B (+14.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.36B , and +370.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$512.5M, operating cash flow of -$412.6M, and free cash flow of -$422.1M (-16.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, DNLI closed FY2025 with $1.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.87, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.55B -$512.5M -$412.6M -$422.1M $1.14B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.36B -$422.8M -$347.7M -$363.6M $1.37B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $330.5M -$145.2M -$358.0M -$358.0M — —

3. DNLI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DNLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: DNLI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $18.86 (-0.42% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, DNLI ranks #588 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DNLI compare to BEAM and ADMA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), DNLI carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BEAM (Beam Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.1%, cap $2.81B) and ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 32.9%, cap $2.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADMA leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while ADMA leads on capital efficiency (32.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DNLI?

Per DNLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714899), Denali Therapeutics Inc. generated $1.55B in revenue (+14.0% YoY), -$512.5M in net income, and -$422.1M in free cash flow against $1.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DNLI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DNLI last traded at $18.86 (-0.42% on volume of 1,235,126 shares), positioning the stock -7.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.42) and -11.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.24). Across its 52-week range of $13.75 to $27.30, DNLI sits at the 37.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($17.28 to $20.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: DNLI RQD Cockpit DNLI 12M Forecast DNLI Earnings & Move DNLI Dividends & DRIP DNLI Insiders & 13F DNLI Whale Options DNLI Profit Sankey DNLI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

DNLI — Denali Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $18.86 (-0.42% 1D, market capitalization $3.03B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -13.67%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.87, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The company's customers, product lines, and revenue model are not described in the source data. Reported revenue is — in FY 2025 and FY 2024, with $330.5M reported in FY 2023 .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) reported $1.55B in annual revenue (up from $1.36B in FY2024, +14.0% YoY) and -$512.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($330.5M revenue, -$145.2M net income) through FY2025, DNLI scaled operating cash flow to -$412.6M and free cash flow to -$422.1M, backed by $1.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.67% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.75 – $27.30 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), DNLI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can DNLI sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.55B and free cash flow of -$422.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is DNLI's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

DNLI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DNLI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DNLI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DNLI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DNLI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.62 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 10.87 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating ample solvency runway despit

Here is why I am bullish on DNLI here at $18.94: The forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 10.87 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating ample solvency runway despite losses.. Compare DNLI's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $17.99 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.53 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $18.94

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -13.67%, and insider conviction of 3/20 show sustained cash burn with little insider confidence.

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -13.67%, and insider conviction of 3/20 show sustained cash burn with little insider confidence.. Look at the math on DNLI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $16.67 before getting long.

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