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Stock Ratings / Health Care / RLAY
IOVA (47) TARS (50) ADPT (48) DNLI (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$17.28 -5.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.07

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.79B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RLAY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RLAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RLAY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $3.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RLAY ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RLAY compare to IOVA and TARS in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RLAY carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $3.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RLAY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLAY?
▼

Per RLAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812364), Relay Therapeutics Inc. generated $15.4M in revenue (+53.4% YoY), -$276.5M in net income, and -$235.9M in free cash flow against $621.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.07 (-1.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (12)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$22 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE RLAY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RLAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RLAY SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$17.06+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$18.41+7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$19.69-12.2% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$17.28-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RLAY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RLAY currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.42) and Max Pain ($18.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RLAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RLAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
43.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE74% OF RANGE
L: $6$17.28H: $21
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on RLAY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -5.53% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (37)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RLAY
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RLAY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RLAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RLAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.92%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $18.35H $18.35L $17.28C $17.28VOL 2.85M
RES: $20.11SUP: $15.39SMA50: $18.42SMA200: $15.16
$22.22$18.29$14.36$10.43$6.50RES $20.11SUP $15.39$17.282026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RLAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RLAY Butterfly Map → + Track RLAY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +53.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RLAY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RLAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RLAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RLAY)

Health Care Rank #478 of 1015 ⚔️ IOVA vs RLAY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RLAY vs. IOVA, TARS, ADPT, DNLI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) ranks #478 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #181 by equity capitalization ($3.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RLAY leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ADPT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.5% ROIC and 74.2% gross margin. TARS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with RLAY at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RLAY ACTIVE
Relay Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -5.83% $3.79B Benchmark Subject
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 47/100 — 34.3% -35.0% -5.42% $3.63B /iova-vs-rlay →
TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 — — -24.1% -2.04% $3.61B /tars-vs-rlay →
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
D 48/100 — 74.2% -12.5% -5.93% $4.00B /adpt-vs-rlay →
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -0.42% $3.01B /dnli-vs-rlay →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001812364 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) reported GAAP revenue of $15.4M (+53.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.0M , and -39.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$276.5M, operating cash flow of -$235.5M, and free cash flow of -$235.9M (+6.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RLAY closed FY2025 with $621.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $15.4M -$276.5M -$235.5M -$235.9M $621.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $10.0M -$337.7M -$249.1M -$251.1M $871.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $25.5M -$342.0M -$300.3M -$300.3M — —

3. RLAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RLAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RLAY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $3.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RLAY ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RLAY compare to IOVA and TARS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RLAY carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $3.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RLAY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLAY?

Per RLAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812364), Relay Therapeutics Inc. generated $15.4M in revenue (+53.4% YoY), -$276.5M in net income, and -$235.9M in free cash flow against $621.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RLAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RLAY last traded at $17.28 (-5.83% on volume of 2,854,323 shares), positioning the stock -6.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.42) and +13.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.16). Across its 52-week range of $5.95 to $21.27, RLAY sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($15.29 to $19.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: RLAY RQD Cockpit RLAY 12M Forecast RLAY Earnings & Move RLAY Dividends & DRIP RLAY Insiders & 13F RLAY Whale Options RLAY Profit Sankey RLAY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RLAY — Relay Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market capitalization $3.79B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -5.53%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Relay Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The company reports revenue of $15.4M for FY 2025, .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) reported $15.4M in annual revenue (up from $10.0M in FY2024, +53.4% YoY) and -$276.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($25.5M revenue, -$342.0M net income) through FY2025, RLAY scaled operating cash flow to -$235.5M and free cash flow to -$235.9M, backed by $621.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.53% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.95 – $21.27 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as "NONE" and an empty set of butterfly links, so upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. No sector correlations or 2nd-order bottlenecks are identified.

  • Key Question #1: Can RLAY sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $15.4M and free cash flow of -$235.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RLAY's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RLAY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RLAY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RLAY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RLAY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RLAY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.94 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating accumulation and options positioning despite weak fundam

Don't sleep on RLAY's setup in Health Care. Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating accumulation and options positioning despite weak fundamentals.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (39/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $18.35 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.50 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $18.35

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -5.53% leave the cash engine scoring just 6 of 20, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$235.9M against $84.0M

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RLAY: ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -5.53% leave the cash engine scoring just 6 of 20, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$235.9M against $84.0M of cash.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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