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Stock Ratings / Health Care / RLAY / options
IOVA (47) TARS (50) ADPT (48) DNLI (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$17.28 -5.83% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.07

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $3.79B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RLAY Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RLAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RLAY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $3.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RLAY ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RLAY compare to IOVA and TARS in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RLAY carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $3.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RLAY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLAY?
β–Ό

Per RLAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812364), Relay Therapeutics Inc. generated $15.4M in revenue (+53.4% YoY), -$276.5M in net income, and -$235.9M in free cash flow against $621.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.07 (-1.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510039
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (12)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$22 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE RLAY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RLAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY RLAY SCORES 39/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±11.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$17.06+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$18.41+7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$19.69-12.2% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$17.28-7.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (31) β†’ D- (39)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RLAY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While RLAY currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.42) and Max Pain ($18.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.33.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RLAYβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œRLAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RLAY)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RLAY.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RLAY)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of RLAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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RLAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.92%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $18.35H $18.35L $17.28C $17.28VOL 2.85M
RES: $20.11SUP: $15.39SMA50: $18.42SMA200: $15.16
$22.22$18.29$14.36$10.43$6.50RES $20.11SUP $15.39$17.282026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RLAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ RLAY Butterfly Map β†’ + Track RLAY β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +53.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RLAY today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RLAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RLAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RLAY)

Health Care Rank #478 of 1015 βš”οΈ IOVA vs RLAY Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RLAY vs. IOVA, TARS, ADPT, DNLI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) ranks #478 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #181 by equity capitalization ($3.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RLAY leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ADPT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.5% ROIC and 74.2% gross margin. TARS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with RLAY at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RLAY ACTIVE
Relay Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -5.83% $3.79B Benchmark Subject
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 47/100 β€” 34.3% -35.0% -5.42% $3.63B /iova-vs-rlay β†’
TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 β€” β€” -24.1% -2.04% $3.61B /tars-vs-rlay β†’
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
D 48/100 β€” 74.2% -12.5% -5.93% $4.00B /adpt-vs-rlay β†’
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -0.42% $3.01B /dnli-vs-rlay β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001812364 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) reported GAAP revenue of $15.4M (+53.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.0M , and -39.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$276.5M, operating cash flow of -$235.5M, and free cash flow of -$235.9M (+6.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RLAY closed FY2025 with $621.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $15.4M -$276.5M -$235.5M -$235.9M $621.3M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $10.0M -$337.7M -$249.1M -$251.1M $871.3M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $25.5M -$342.0M -$300.3M -$300.3M β€” β€”

3. RLAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RLAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Relay Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RLAY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $3.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RLAY ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RLAY compare to IOVA and TARS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RLAY carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $3.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RLAY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLAY?

Per RLAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812364), Relay Therapeutics Inc. generated $15.4M in revenue (+53.4% YoY), -$276.5M in net income, and -$235.9M in free cash flow against $621.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RLAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RLAY last traded at $17.28 (-5.83% on volume of 2,854,323 shares), positioning the stock -6.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.42) and +13.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.16). Across its 52-week range of $5.95 to $21.27, RLAY sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.5% ($15.29 to $19.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: RLAY RQD Cockpit RLAY 12M Forecast RLAY Earnings & Move RLAY Dividends & DRIP RLAY Insiders & 13F RLAY Whale Options RLAY Profit Sankey RLAY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 39/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RLAY β€” Relay Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.28 (-5.83% 1D, market capitalization $3.79B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -5.53%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Relay Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The company reports revenue of $15.4M for FY 2025, .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) reported $15.4M in annual revenue (up from $10.0M in FY2024, +53.4% YoY) and -$276.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($25.5M revenue, -$342.0M net income) through FY2025, RLAY scaled operating cash flow to -$235.5M and free cash flow to -$235.9M, backed by $621.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.53% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.95 – $21.27 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as "NONE" and an empty set of butterfly links, so upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. No sector correlations or 2nd-order bottlenecks are identified.

  • Key Question #1: Can RLAY sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $15.4M and free cash flow of -$235.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RLAY's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RLAY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to RLAY Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RLAY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $17.28?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RLAY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RLAY:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Growth & Tech Investor πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.94 (+25.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating accumulation and options positioning despite weak fundam

Don't sleep on RLAY's setup in Health Care. Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating accumulation and options positioning despite weak fundamentals.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (39/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $18.35 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.50 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $18.35

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -5.53% leave the cash engine scoring just 6 of 20, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$235.9M against $84.0M

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RLAY: ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -5.53% leave the cash engine scoring just 6 of 20, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$235.9M against $84.0M of cash.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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