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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$206.55 +2.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $206.96

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.19B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AGM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $206.55 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $2.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGM ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGM compare to ECPG and TY in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), AGM carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 60.4%, cap $2.12B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGM?
▼

Per AGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000845877), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $14.86B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $207.4M in net income, and $80.1M in free cash flow against $35.37B in total assets and $19.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $206.96 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (9)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$261 Bull$206 Base$160 Bear
📬 FREE AGM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGM SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$204.23-1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$200.82+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$204.02+1.2% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$206.55-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AGM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, AGM faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($213.02) or 200D SMA ($189.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($205.62) toward Bear Floor ($160.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.2K
Yr 3
$13.0K
Yr 4
$13.9K
Yr 5
$14.8K
Yr 6
$15.8K
Yr 7
$16.9K
Yr 8
$18.1K
Yr 9
$19.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.12%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $204.0H $206.6L $202.2C $206.6VOL 152.9K
RES: $248.1SUP: $192.3SMA50: $213.0SMA200: $189.2
$254.6$228.5$202.4$176.3$150.2RES $248.1SUP $192.3$206.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGM Butterfly Map → + Track AGM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGM)

Financials Rank #478 of 1097 ⚔️ ECPG vs AGM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGM vs. ECPG, TY, BDJ, CSQ)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) ranks #478 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #416 by equity capitalization ($2.19B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with AGM at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGM ACTIVE
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
D+ 57/100 10.7x — 12.1% +2.17% $2.19B Benchmark Subject
ECPG
Encore Capital Group Inc
B- 70/100 8.4x — 60.4% +0.25% $2.12B /ecpg-vs-agm →
TY
Tri Continental Corporation
D 48/100 — — — -0.23% $1.87B /ty-vs-agm →
BDJ
Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust
D 51/100 — — — 0.00% $1.70B /bdj-vs-agm →
CSQ
Calamos Strategic Total Return
D- 43/100 — — — -0.10% $3.11B /csq-vs-agm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000845877 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) reported GAAP revenue of $14.86B (+12.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $13.16B , and +940.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $207.4M, operating cash flow of $80.1M, and free cash flow of $80.1M (-86.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGM closed FY2025 with $35.37B in total assets against $19.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $14.86B $207.4M $80.1M $80.1M $35.37B $19.54B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $13.16B $207.2M $612.6M $612.6M $31.32B $17.08B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.43B $200.0M $375.8M $375.8M — —

3. AGM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $206.55 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $2.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGM ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGM compare to ECPG and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), AGM carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 60.4%, cap $2.12B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGM?

Per AGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000845877), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $14.86B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $207.4M in net income, and $80.1M in free cash flow against $35.37B in total assets and $19.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGM last traded at $206.55 (+2.17% on volume of 101,500 shares), positioning the stock -3.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($213.02) and +9.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($189.15). Across its 52-week range of $136.57 to $248.29, AGM sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($197.87 to $215.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGM RQD Cockpit AGM 12M Forecast AGM Earnings & Move AGM Dividends & DRIP AGM Insiders & 13F AGM Whale Options AGM Profit Sankey AGM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AGM — Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $206.55 (+2.17% 1D, market capitalization $2.19B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 3.62%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Finance Companies industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $2.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) reported $14.86B in annual revenue (up from $13.16B in FY2024, +12.9% YoY) and $207.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.43B revenue, $200.0M net income) through FY2025, AGM scaled operating cash flow to $80.1M and free cash flow to $80.1M, backed by $35.37B in total assets against $19.54B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 3.62% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $136.57 – $248.29 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance Companies (Financials), AGM carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can AGM sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.1% ROIC against Finance Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $14.86B and free cash flow of $80.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $19.54B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AGM's 10.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AGM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $206.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $252.70 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trailing P/E of 10.7 and insider-flow pillar of 16 / 20 suggest the shares may be inexpensive on earnings with insider conviction suppo

Don't sleep on AGM's setup in Financials. Trailing P/E of 10.7 and insider-flow pillar of 16 / 20 suggest the shares may be inexpensive on earnings with insider conviction supporting the case.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (57/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 10.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance Companies. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $155.66 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $202.16

The RQD verdict is a trim signal, with fundamentals scored 9 / 20 and whale flow 8 / 20, while the Zacks downgrade to Hold and FCF fall

Fading this rally in AGM at $202.16. The RQD verdict is a trim signal, with fundamentals scored 9 / 20 and whale flow 8 / 20, while the Zacks downgrade to Hold and FCF falling to $80.1M weigh against the stock.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $202.16 (52-wk range $136.57–$248.29), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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