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Stock Ratings / Health Care / ALEC / options
XFOR (29) SCTX (44) IRLA (33) AGEN (30) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Alector Inc. (ALEC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.21 -1.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.20

Alector Inc. (ALEC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $332.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALEC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $2.21 (-1.34% 1D, market cap $332.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALEC ranks #741 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALEC compare to XFOR and SCTX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ALEC carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XFOR (X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $333.1M) and SCTX (Scribe Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $330.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ALEC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALEC?
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Per ALEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653087), Alector Inc. generated $21.0M in revenue (-79.1% YoY), -$143.0M in net income, and -$184.1M in free cash flow against $293.2M in total assets and $9.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.20 (-0.43%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (13)SEC (3)Macro (12)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.3% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE ALEC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALEC SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (39% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (36% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$2.08-6.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$1.95-6.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$1.83+20.8% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$2.21-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALEC currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.08) and Max Pain ($2.32) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALEC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALEC.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALEC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ALEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.95%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $2.25H $2.25L $2.21C $2.21VOL 1.46M
RES: $2.79SUP: $1.75SMA50: $2.08SMA200: $2.03
$2.86$2.45$2.05$1.65$1.24RES $2.79SUP $1.75$2.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALEC Butterfly Map → + Track ALEC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALEC)

Health Care Rank #741 of 1016 ⚔️ XFOR vs ALEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALEC vs. XFOR, SCTX, IRLA, AGEN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alector Inc. (ALEC) ranks #741 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #508 by equity capitalization ($332.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALEC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ALEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SCTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with ALEC at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALEC ACTIVE
Alector Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -1.34% $332.1M Benchmark Subject
XFOR
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 29/100 — 83.6% -35.0% -0.30% $333.1M /xfor-vs-alec →
SCTX
Scribe Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — — -11.58% $330.2M /sctx-vs-alec →
IRLA
IRulya Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% +4.21% $342.8M /irla-vs-alec →
AGEN
Agenus Inc.
E 30/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -3.53% $320.2M /agen-vs-alec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653087

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alector Inc. (ALEC) reported GAAP revenue of $21.0M (-79.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $100.6M , and -78.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.0M, operating cash flow of -$184.0M, and free cash flow of -$184.1M (+20.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALEC closed FY2025 with $293.2M in total assets against $9.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $21.0M -$143.0M -$184.0M -$184.1M $293.2M $9.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $100.6M -$119.0M -$229.9M -$231.2M $468.3M $9.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $97.1M -$130.0M -$184.2M -$184.2M — —

3. ALEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $2.21 (-1.34% 1D, market cap $332.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALEC ranks #741 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALEC compare to XFOR and SCTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ALEC carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XFOR (X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $333.1M) and SCTX (Scribe Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $330.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ALEC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALEC?

Per ALEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653087), Alector Inc. generated $21.0M in revenue (-79.1% YoY), -$143.0M in net income, and -$184.1M in free cash flow against $293.2M in total assets and $9.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALEC last traded at $2.21 (-1.34% on volume of 1,111,257 shares), positioning the stock +6.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.08) and +8.87% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.03). Across its 52-week range of $1.09 to $2.76, ALEC sits at the 67.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.93 to $2.49).

ALEC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ALEC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ALEC.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALEC RQD Cockpit ALEC 12M Forecast ALEC Earnings & Move ALEC Dividends & DRIP ALEC Insiders & 13F ALEC Whale Options ALEC Profit Sankey ALEC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALEC — Alector Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:38:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 33 out of 100, graded E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid" (per the Roarable RQD rating). The five pillars, each scored out of 20, are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, the core earnings engine is not currently self-funding; value depends on external capital or a future operating turn that the source data does not show.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar, indicating some sophisticated interest, though the holder detail in the source data is not itemized.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score here suggests insider activity does not provide a supportive signal.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The stock moves in line with the market, so it offers no defensive cushion.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 2 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.3. The Altman Z-Score sits far below conventional distress thresholds, making this the weakest pillar and the central reason for the Avoid label.

Upside drivers, as framed by the source data, are limited to the catalyst headlines and the price target noted in the news wire, which are not independently verified. Valuation tradeoffs are severe: with negative operating and net margins and no reported EPS, traditional multiples are unavailable, so the $332.1M market capitalization cannot be anchored to earnings. The principal investor implication is that the stock's price action in the source data is not supported by the cash-generation or balance-sheet pillars.

Business

Alector Inc. (ALEC) is listed on NASDAQ in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry (per the profile). The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generating programs. Revenue is reported in the financials, but the sources do not specify how it is generated. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain relationships are recorded.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$21.0M$-156.0M$-143.0MN/A$-184.1M$65.8M$9.3M
FY 2024$100.6M$-145.0M$-119.0MN/A$-231.2M$33.0M$9.4M
FY 2023$97.1M$-151.7M$-130.0MN/A$-184.2MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue fell from $100.6M in FY 2024 to $21.0M in FY 2025, while operating losses remained large in both years. Operating margin is -60% and net margin is -60% (per the market data). ROIC is -35%, and the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 (per the Roarable RQD rating). Debt is reported at $9.3M against cash of $65.8M in FY 2025 (per the SEC financials), with Debt/Equity of 0.3 (per the Roarable RQD rating).

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the most recent item (CATALYST light, GREEN) is a TradingView report describing a 12-month price target raised to $3.3, implying 66% upside. Per the news wire, a Dealroom report describes a $75M stock offering priced at a premium to fund the neurodegeneration pipeline. Per the news wire, a Seeking Alpha report notes the stock rose after pricing an equity offering. Per the news wire, a Mizuho report reiterated a Neutral rating on a Roche deal. Remaining wire items are general market-data pages. Risk watch items include the equity offering, which indicates dilution risk, and the Neutral reiteration. No proprietary signals are recorded in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlation is limited to the Health Care classification and Beta of 1.0. The second-order risk the source data does support is financing dependence: the equity offering and the reported negative free cash flow suggest that the company's continuation relies on capital markets, so a tightening of those markets would be a ripple to watch.

Open Questions

  • What products or programs generate the FY 2024 and FY 2025 revenue, and why did revenue decline sharply in FY 2025?
  • What is the cash runway given FY 2025 free cash flow of $-184.1M against $65.8M in cash?
  • What are the terms and dilution impact of the $75M stock offering referenced in the news wire?
  • What is the basis of the $3.3 price target, and who issued it?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, given that holder data is unavailable?

ALEC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alector Inc. (ALEC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALEC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALEC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.21?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALEC 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALEC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.97 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ALEC (E • RQD 33/100) a Buy at $2.24?

Welcome to the ALEC (Alector Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 33/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.86 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $2.24

Pump the brakes on ALEC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ALEC, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Alector Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.80 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $2.24

ALEC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ALEC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.24 (52-wk range $1.09 - $2.76), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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