Allegion plc (ALLE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.7% Move

$186.44 -0.33% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $186.78

Allegion plc (ALLE) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (45% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $15.77B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Allegion plc (NYSE: ALLE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $186.44 (-0.33% 1D, market cap $15.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALLE ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALLE compare to ROL and APG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ALLE carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.5x, gross margin of 45.2%, and ROIC of 18.4%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.58B) and APG (APi Group Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 64.4x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $19.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALLE?
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Per ALLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001579241), Allegion plc generated $4.07B in revenue (+7.8% YoY), $643.8M in net income, and $600.8M in free cash flow against $5.22B in total assets and $1.98B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (45% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $186.78 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 14.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510079
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B
Cash (16)Whales (18)SEC (18)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target
$241 Bull$204 Base$153 Bear
📬 FREE ALLE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALLE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALLE SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.07 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (81.9) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$153.17+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$157.03+15% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
76
Grade B+$180.55+3.3% Next Q
Current
79
Grade B+$186.44+8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALLE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, ALLE faces multiple-compression risk if 24.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 42.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($159.45) or 200D SMA ($150.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($204.06) toward Bear Floor ($152.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALLE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALLE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.7% Swing Band

±$10.63 Expected Swing
$175.81 (-5.7%)Spot $186.44$197.07 (+5.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ALLE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 79/100

Trailing EPS: $7.64 • YoY Revenue Growth: 7.8%

Model Bullish Setup (79/100)Model Risk Weight (21/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$4.07B$643.8M$600.8M45.2%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.77B$597.5M$582.9M44.2%
FY 20232023-12-31$3.65B$540.6M$436.3M45.2%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ALLE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ALLE
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +40.72%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $180.7H $187.1L $180.7C $186.4VOL 1.49M
RES: $190.2SUP: $145.4SMA50: $159.5SMA200: $150.7
$194.1$175.4$156.6$137.9$119.2RES $190.2SUP $145.4$186.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALLE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALLE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALLE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALLE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALLE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #27 of 1011 ⚔️ ROL vs ALLE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALLE vs. ROL, APG, AER, ADT)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Allegion plc (ALLE) ranks #27 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #123 by equity capitalization ($15.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AER leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while ROL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ALLE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALLE ACTIVE
Allegion plc
B+ 79/100 24.5x 45.2% 18.4% -0.33% $15.77B Benchmark Subject
ROL
Rollins Inc.
B 72/100 31.5x — 28.5% -0.09% $16.58B /rol-vs-alle →
APG
APi Group Corporation
C 65/100 64.4x 31.4% 8.3% -1.51% $19.46B /apg-vs-alle →
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
C+ 69/100 6.6x — 9.2% -0.74% $24.66B /aer-vs-alle →
ADT
ADT Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.1x — 9.3% -0.10% $7.21B /adt-vs-alle →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001579241

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Allegion plc (ALLE) reported GAAP revenue of $4.07B (+7.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.77B , and +11.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $643.8M, operating cash flow of $783.8M, and free cash flow of $600.8M (+3.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALLE closed FY2025 with $5.22B in total assets against $1.98B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.07, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.07B $643.8M $783.8M $600.8M $5.22B $1.98B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.77B $597.5M $675.0M $582.9M $4.49B $1.98B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.65B $540.6M $600.6M $436.3M $8.68B $2.03B

3. ALLE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Allegion plc (NYSE: ALLE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $186.44 (-0.33% 1D, market cap $15.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALLE ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALLE compare to ROL and APG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ALLE carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.5x, gross margin of 45.2%, and ROIC of 18.4%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.58B) and APG (APi Group Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 64.4x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $19.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALLE?

Per ALLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001579241), Allegion plc generated $4.07B in revenue (+7.8% YoY), $643.8M in net income, and $600.8M in free cash flow against $5.22B in total assets and $1.98B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (45% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALLE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALLE last traded at $186.44 (-0.33% on volume of 1,245,025 shares), positioning the stock +16.93% above its 50-day simple moving average ($159.45) and +23.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($150.73). Across its 52-week range of $125.00 to $189.59, ALLE sits at the 95.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 81.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($175.81 to $197.07).

ALLE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ALLE's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Allegion plc (ALLE)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ALLE stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.7% event move for ALLE, spanning a range between $175.81 and $197.07.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 79/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALLE — Allegion plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:28Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 79 out of 100, a letter grade of B+, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow" (per the Roarable RQD rating). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental cash engine: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 18.4% and an FCF yield of 3.81%. For an investor, this suggests the business generates returns above typical cost-of-capital thresholds, though the 3.81% FCF yield means the stock is not cheap on a cash-flow basis at the current price.
  • Whale 13F flow: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar is labeled as institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the strongest pillar and points to sustained institutional interest; the underlying 13F records themselves are not provided in source data.
  • Insider conviction: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Insider and congressional trade-level detail is not available in source data.
  • Macro regime fit: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 0.9 with a noted sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar: a beta below 1 implies somewhat lower market sensitivity, but the score signals that the stock's fit with the prevailing macro regime is only moderate.
  • Forensic balance sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.07, the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.96. These figures point to a financially sound balance sheet with strong scoring on quality tests.

Translated into investor implications: the composite rating points to strong quality and institutional support, with the main tradeoffs being valuation (P/E of 24.5 TTM and EV/EBITDA of 17.1, per the market data) and a macro-fit score that lags the other pillars. Upside drivers in the data are the cash-generation and balance-sheet pillars; the valuation multiples and the more moderate macro-fit score are the points a prospective investor should weigh against them. This is an analytical summary of the source data, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
187.06$15.77B24.522.817.17.641.11%0.9$125 - $189.5918.4%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4067.3M$859.5M$643.8MN/A$600.8M$356.2M$1979.9M
FY 2024$3772.2M$780.7M$597.5MN/A$582.9M$503.8M$1977.6M
FY 2023$3650.8M$708.4M$540.6MN/A$436.3MN/A$2030.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow rose across the three reported fiscal years, and debt was broadly stable, moving from $2030.0M to $1979.9M. Per the market data, gross margin is 45.2%, operating margin 21.1%, and net margin 15.8%, with ROIC at 18.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.07 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.96. Cash balances fell from $503.8M to $356.2M over the period shown.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six headlines reference ALLE: a Yahoo Finance piece asking whether the stock is outpacing industrial products peers (flagged YELLOW, market wire); a MarketWatch report that the stock underperformed competitors on a Thursday despite daily gains (GREEN, catalyst); a Yahoo Finance item on why the stock rose that day (YELLOW, market wire); a Yahoo Finance piece describing the stock as trading near fair value on a door deal (YELLOW, market wire); a Yahoo Finance piece suggesting the stock could be 18% overvalued after a raised outlook (GREEN, catalyst); and a Yahoo Finance piece on a lifted full-year guidance and whether the stock is already pricey (YELLOW, market wire). The headlines point to a raised full-year outlook and a valuation debate as the central catalysts. Specific guidance figures and the details of the door deal are not available in source data. Per the Butterfly supply-chain graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (sector: Consumer Discretionary; industry: Diversified Commercial Services; supply chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What are the specific raised full-year guidance figures referenced in the news headlines, and how do they compare with prior guidance?
  • What products and end markets generate ALLE's revenue, and how is revenue split across them?
  • What are the individual SEC Form 4, 13F, and Congressional trade records underlying the 16/20 insider and 18/20 whale pillar scores?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target range, given the analyst data is absent?
  • What drove the cash balance decline from $503.8M to $356.2M while FCF remained positive?

ALLE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Allegion plc (ALLE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALLE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALLE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $186.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALLE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALLE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $220.73 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ALLE (B+ • RQD 79/100) a Buy at $187.06?

Welcome to the ALLE (Allegion plc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 79/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Diversified Commercial Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $145.91 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $187.06

Pump the brakes on ALLE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ALLE, but look at what you are paying: 24.5x trailing P/E with 45.2% gross margins. Unless Allegion plc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $215.12 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $187.06

ALLE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ALLE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Commercial Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $187.06 (52-wk range $125.00 - $189.59), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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