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Why AMBQ Stock dropped -9.34% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$43.31 -9.34% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.50

Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMBQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ambiq Micro Inc. (NYSE: AMBQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $43.31 (-9.34% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AMBQ ranks #544 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMBQ compare to WOLF and SHLS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBQ carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, WOLF (Wolfspeed Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.16B) and SHLS (Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 37.8x, ROIC 7.5%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SHLS leads on earnings multiple (37.8x) while SHLS leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBQ?
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Per AMBQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001500412), Ambiq Micro Inc. generated $72.5M in revenue (-4.7% YoY), -$36.5M in net income, and -$19.7M in free cash flow against $184.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.50 (-1.87%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (4)SEC (14)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$96 Bull$38 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE AMBQ RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMBQ SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (42% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 44.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$55.86-8.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$50.98+7.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$54.67-20.8% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$43.31-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMBQ currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($59.12) and Max Pain ($45.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.19.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBQ• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMBQ Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AMBQ Stock dropped -9.34% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) dropped -9.34% to $43.31, trading at 30% of its 52-week range ($22.12 – $91.61). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 30% of its 52-week range ($22.12 – $91.61) with RSI-14 at 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $43.31 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 44.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AMBQ Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBQ)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AMBQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AMBQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.04%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $53.80H $53.80L $43.31C $43.31VOL 308.5K
RES: $78.18SUP: $23.23SMA50: $59.12SMA200: $53.84
$95.92$78.07$60.22$42.37$24.52RES $78.18SUP $23.23$43.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMBQ Butterfly Map → + Track AMBQ →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBQ)

Technology Rank #544 of 715 ⚔️ WOLF vs AMBQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBQ vs. WOLF, SHLS, AIP, ICHR)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) ranks #544 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #341 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SHLS leads on earnings valuation at 37.8x trailing P/E, while SHLS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and 35.0% gross margin. WOLF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 37/100 (D-) compared with AMBQ at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMBQ ACTIVE
Ambiq Micro Inc.
E 33/100 — 44.3% -35.0% -9.34% $1.16B Benchmark Subject
WOLF
Wolfspeed Inc.
D- 37/100 — — 0.7% -5.14% $1.16B /wolf-vs-ambq →
SHLS
Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 37.8x 35.0% 7.5% +5.56% $1.21B /shls-vs-ambq →
AIP
Arteris Inc.
E 33/100 — 90.2% -35.0% -5.05% $924.1M /aip-vs-ambq →
ICHR
Ichor Holdings
E 32/100 — 9.3% -4.5% -5.30% $1.46B /ichr-vs-ambq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001500412 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) reported GAAP revenue of $72.5M (-4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $76.1M ) , GAAP net income of -$36.5M, operating cash flow of -$19.7M, and free cash flow of -$19.7M (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBQ closed FY2025 with $184.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $72.5M -$36.5M -$19.7M -$19.7M $184.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $76.1M -$39.7M -$21.4M -$21.4M $104.3M —

3. AMBQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ambiq Micro Inc. (NYSE: AMBQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $43.31 (-9.34% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AMBQ ranks #544 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMBQ compare to WOLF and SHLS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBQ carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, WOLF (Wolfspeed Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.16B) and SHLS (Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 37.8x, ROIC 7.5%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SHLS leads on earnings multiple (37.8x) while SHLS leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBQ?

Per AMBQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001500412), Ambiq Micro Inc. generated $72.5M in revenue (-4.7% YoY), -$36.5M in net income, and -$19.7M in free cash flow against $184.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMBQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBQ last traded at $43.31 (-9.34% on volume of 561,810 shares), positioning the stock -26.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($59.12) and -19.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($53.84). Across its 52-week range of $22.12 to $91.61, AMBQ sits at the 30.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($37.90 to $48.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMBQ RQD Cockpit AMBQ 12M Forecast AMBQ Earnings & Move AMBQ Dividends & DRIP AMBQ Insiders & 13F AMBQ Whale Options AMBQ Profit Sankey AMBQ News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMBQ — Ambiq Micro Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $43.31 (-9.34% 1D, market capitalization $1.16B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 44.3%, operating margin of -54.5%, and free cash flow yield of -1.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ambiq Micro Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Semiconductors industry, . Per the Financials section, the company reported revenue of $72.5M for FY 2025 and $76.1M for FY 2024.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) reported $72.5M in annual revenue (up from $76.1M in FY2024, -4.7% YoY) and -$36.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($76.1M revenue, -$39.7M net income) through FY2025, AMBQ scaled operating cash flow to -$19.7M and free cash flow to -$19.7M, backed by $184.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.51% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.12 – $91.61 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -54.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Semiconductors (Technology), AMBQ carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 44.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can AMBQ sustain or expand its -54.5% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $72.5M and free cash flow of -$19.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMBQ's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMBQ Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMBQ Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMBQ Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMBQ 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMBQ:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $55.89 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash on the balance sheet rose from $61.0M to $140.3M and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14 of 20, supporting near-term solve

The street is overcomplicating Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ). Cash on the balance sheet rose from $61.0M to $140.3M and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14 of 20, supporting near-term solvency despite losses.. With an RQD score of 33/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $51.59.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Semiconductors. If gross margin (44.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.78 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $47.77

ROIC of -35%, FCF of -$19.7M, and an insider pillar of 3 of 20 show the cash engine and insider confidence are both weak.

I respect the product at Ambiq Micro Inc., but the stock at $47.77 is a different story. ROIC of -35%, FCF of -$19.7M, and an insider pillar of 3 of 20 show the cash engine and insider confidence are both weak.. FCF yield is -1.51% and RQD sits at 33/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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