What is ARDX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ARDX.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ARDX / options

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Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: Where is ARDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARDX last traded at $3.03 (0.00% on volume of 4,612,238 shares), positioning the stock -10.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.40) and -42.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.30). Across its 52-week range of $2.95 to $8.40, ARDX sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($2.78 to $3.28).

$3.03 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.02

Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 24/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $755.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 24/100 at a spot price of $3.03 (0.00% 1D, market cap $755.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDX ranks #937 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARDX compare to ANNX and HELP in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARDX carries a Roarable E (24/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.3%, and ROIC of -32.7%. By comparison, ANNX (Annexon Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $767.8M) and HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $774.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDX?

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Per ARDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437402), Ardelyx Inc. generated $407.3M in revenue (+22.1% YoY), -$62.0M in net income, and -$44.0M in free cash flow against $501.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.02 (-0.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (24/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARDX SCORES 24/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 90.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.12+2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.21-6.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.00+1% Next Q

Current

Grade E$3.03-10.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → E (24)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARDX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARDX currently carries a cautious 24/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.40) and Max Pain ($3.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 24%NO 76%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ARDX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ARDX.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARDX)

✓Walkthrough of ARDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ARDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -58.49%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $3.10H $3.10L $3.03C $3.03VOL 3.63M

SUP: $2.65SMA50: $3.40SMA200: $5.30

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARDX Butterfly Map → + Track ARDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARDX)

Health Care Rank #937 of 1015 ⚔️ ANNX vs ARDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARDX vs. ANNX, HELP, COLL, AVBP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) ranks #937 by composite RQD confidence (24/100, grade E) and #389 by equity capitalization ($755.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with ARDX at 24/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARDX ACTIVE Ardelyx Inc.	E	24/100	—	90.3%	-32.7%	0.00%	$755.0M	Benchmark Subject
ANNX Annexon Inc.	E	30/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.72%	$767.8M	/annx-vs-ardx →
HELP Helus Pharma Inc.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-16.94%	$774.1M	/help-vs-ardx →
COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	C-	59/100	12.4x	59.3%	85.0%	-0.50%	$774.8M	/coll-vs-ardx →
AVBP ArriVent BioPharma Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-10.22%	$733.2M	/avbp-vs-ardx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001437402 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) reported GAAP revenue of $407.3M (+22.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $333.6M , and +227.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$62.0M, operating cash flow of -$42.5M, and free cash flow of -$44.0M (+4.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARDX closed FY2025 with $501.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$407.3M	-$62.0M	-$42.5M	-$44.0M	$501.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$333.6M	-$39.0M	-$44.8M	-$45.8M	$435.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$124.5M	-$66.0M	-$89.7M	-$89.7M	—	—

3. ARDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARDX compare to ANNX and HELP in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDX?

Where is ARDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARDX last traded at $3.03 (0.00% on volume of 4,612,238 shares), positioning the stock -10.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.40) and -42.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.30). Across its 52-week range of $2.95 to $8.40, ARDX sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($2.78 to $3.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARDX RQD Cockpit ARDX 12M Forecast ARDX Earnings & Move ARDX Dividends & DRIP ARDX Insiders & 13F ARDX Whale Options ARDX Profit Sankey ARDX News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 24/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARDX — Ardelyx Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 24/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.03 (0.00% 1D, market capitalization $755.0M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -32.7%, gross margin of 90.3%, operating margin of -10.1%, and free cash flow yield of -5.69%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ardelyx Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The market capitalization is $0.8B. Per the market data, the gross margin is 90.3%, indicating a high gross-margin profile relative to operating results.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) reported $407.3M in annual revenue (up from $333.6M in FY2024, +22.1% YoY) and -$62.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($124.5M revenue, -$66.0M net income) through FY2025, ARDX scaled operating cash flow to -$42.5M and free cash flow to -$44.0M, backed by $501.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 24/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.69% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.95 – $8.40 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -10.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the sector and industry classification are — Given the absence of mapped links, the 2nd-order ripple analysis cannot be quantified from the provided sources.

Key Question #1: Can ARDX sustain or expand its -10.1% operating margin and -32.7% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $407.3M and free cash flow of -$44.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARDX's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARDX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARDX Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Ardelyx: Revisiting The Thesis 2 Years On, I'm Surprised At Lack Of Progress (NASDAQ:ARDX)

Seeking Alpha report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Ardelyx (NasdaqGM:ARDX) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Business Wire • 1d ago

Robbins LLP Urges ARDX Stockholders Who Lost Money Investing in Ardelyx, Inc. to Contact the Firm for Information About Leading the Class Action

Business Wire report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GlobeNewswire • 1d ago

ARDX Investor Alert: Ardelyx, Inc. Securities Class Action Notice – Contact Levi & Korsinsky

GlobeNewswire report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Ardelyx Heads These 3 Top Healthcare Stocks To Watch

Simply Wall St report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH PR Newswire • 1d ago

Ardelyx Deadline: ARDX Investors with Losses in Excess of $100K Have Opportunity to Lead Ardelyx, Inc. Securities Fraud Lawsuit

PR Newswire report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Ardelyx (ARDX) Extends Bull Run with Another +2.51% Climb 2026-10-16 - Earnings Miss Risk

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GlobeNewswire • 1d ago

Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) SHAREHOLDER ALERT:

GlobeNewswire report covering Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARDX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.03?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARDX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.55 (+17.2%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $124.5M in FY 2023 to $407.3M in FY 2025, and cash stood at $68.0M for FY 2025.

The street is overcomplicating Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX). Revenue grew from $124.5M in FY 2023 to $407.3M in FY 2025, and cash stood at $68.0M for FY 2025.. With an RQD score of 24/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $3.27.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 24/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $3.03 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.82.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.39 (-21.1%)

Spot @ $3.03

ROIC of -32.7%, FCF of -$44.0M in FY 2025, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal weak cash generation and forensic balance-sheet risk.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ARDX above $3.03. ROIC of -32.7%, FCF of -$44.0M in FY 2025, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal weak cash generation and forensic balance-sheet risk.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20) and FCF yield (-5.69%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $8.40.