How profitable is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ARI converted $271.6M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $142.5M in free cash flow (52.5% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Financials / ARI / financials

KREF (40) PINE (47) NREF (47) LAND (43) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.31 -0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $296.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (NYSE: ARI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $296.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARI ranks #532 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARI compare to KREF and PINE in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARI carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $300.9M) and PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $303.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

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Per ARI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001467760), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc generated $271.6M in revenue (-10.6% YoY), $126.7M in net income, and $142.5M in free cash flow against $9.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 52.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARI SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$6.31+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$6.34+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.56-64.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$2.31-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, ARI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.23) or 200D SMA ($9.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.28) toward Bear Floor ($1.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ARI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$142.5M (52.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $344.6M

FY24

Rev $303.7M

FY25

Rev $271.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$271.6M	52%	0%	$126.7M	$142.5M	6.8%
FY 2024	$303.7M	52%	0%	-$119.6M	$200.3M	6.8%
FY 2023	$344.6M	52%	0%	$58.1M	$273.9M	6.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARI)

✓Walkthrough of ARI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ARI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.04%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-04O $2.33H $2.33L $2.31C $2.31VOL 8.55M

RES: $6.65SUP: $2.11SMA50: $6.23SMA200: $9.02

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARI Butterfly Map → + Track ARI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARI)

Financials Rank #532 of 1097 ⚔️ KREF vs ARI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARI vs. KREF, PINE, NREF, LAND)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) ranks #532 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #810 by equity capitalization ($296.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ARI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ARI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARI ACTIVE Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	D+	55/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-0.86%	$296.2M	Benchmark Subject
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-4.0%	-0.76%	$300.9M	/kref-vs-ari →
PINE Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	3.8%	+3.23%	$303.6M	/pine-vs-ari →
NREF NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-0.93%	$282.2M	/nref-vs-ari →
LAND Gladstone Land Corporation	D-	43/100	24.9x	—	2.0%	+0.14%	$320.1M	/land-vs-ari →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001467760 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported GAAP revenue of $271.6M (-10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $303.7M , and -21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $126.7M, operating cash flow of $142.5M, and free cash flow of $142.5M (-28.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARI closed FY2025 with $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.6M	$126.7M	$142.5M	$142.5M	$9.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$303.7M	-$119.6M	$200.3M	$200.3M	$8.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.6M	$58.1M	$273.9M	$273.9M	—	—

3. ARI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARI compare to KREF and PINE in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

Where is ARI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARI last traded at $2.31 (-0.86% on volume of 8,554,817 shares), positioning the stock -62.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.23) and -74.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.02). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $11.24, ARI sits at the 0.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($2.21 to $2.41).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARI RQD Cockpit ARI 12M Forecast ARI Earnings & Move ARI Dividends & DRIP ARI Insiders & 13F ARI Whale Options ARI Profit Sankey ARI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARI — Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market capitalization $296.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 17.23%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) is listed on the NYSE and operates in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry within the Financials sector, profile. — describes the company's products, customers, or revenue mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification. The profile section identifies ARI as a NYSE-listed Financials issuer with a market capitalization of $0.8B. The recent news headlines reference a NYSE delisting date and a liquidation plan, which indicate the company's current corporate status but do not specify operating details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported $271.6M in annual revenue (up from $303.7M in FY2024, -10.6% YoY) and $126.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($344.6M revenue, $58.1M net income) through FY2025, ARI scaled operating cash flow to $142.5M and free cash flow to $142.5M, backed by $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 17.23% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.30 – $11.24 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 6.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not documented in the source data.

Key Question #1: Can ARI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 6.8% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $271.6M and free cash flow of $142.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARI's 6.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance sets NYSE delisting date

Investing.com report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Apollo Real Estate advances NYSE delisting and liquidation plan

The Globe and Mail report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

$4.10 per share is payable Oct. 29. Sell from Oct. 20 through Oct. 29, and the buyer gets the payout.

Stock Titan report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 2d ago

Weekly Recap: ARI liquidation approved and $4.10 Oct 29 distribution

TradingView report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 2d ago

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Stock Now Rated "Hold" by Wall Street Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Timothy Sykes • 2d ago

ARI Stock Falls As Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Moves To Liquidation

Timothy Sykes report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 2d ago

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc Technical Analysis

TradingKey report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Manila Times • 2d ago

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Declares Initial Cash Liquidating Distribution

The Manila Times report covering Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.80 (+20.2%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The FCF yield of 17.23% and the insider conviction pillar score of 16 out of 20 indicate strong cash generation and insider cluster sup

Long ARI at $2.33 targeting $2.80. The FCF yield of 17.23% and the insider conviction pillar score of 16 out of 20 indicate strong cash generation and insider cluster support relative to the price.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.30 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.33 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.84 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $2.33

The recent headlines describe a NYSE delisting and liquidation plan, with a RED-flagged RISK WATCH item noting a stock decline followin

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ARI: The recent headlines describe a NYSE delisting and liquidation plan, with a RED-flagged RISK WATCH item noting a stock decline following the move to liquidation.. At 6.5x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.