ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / ARI / forecast
KREF (40) PINE (47) NREF (47) LAND (43) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.31 -0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $296.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (NYSE: ARI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $296.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARI ranks #532 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARI compare to KREF and PINE in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARI carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $300.9M) and PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $303.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?
▼

Per ARI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001467760), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc generated $271.6M in revenue (-10.6% YoY), $126.7M in net income, and $142.5M in free cash flow against $9.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 52.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
$12 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE ARI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARI SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$6.31+0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$6.34+3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
58
Grade C$6.56-64.8% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$2.31-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, ARI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.23) or 200D SMA ($9.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.28) toward Bear Floor ($1.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.31: 4329.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.78
$7,706
$-2,294 (-22.9%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.28
$9,870
$-130 (-1.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $11.80
$51,082
+$41,082 (+410.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ARI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.04%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $2.33H $2.33L $2.31C $2.31VOL 8.55M
RES: $6.65SUP: $2.11SMA50: $6.23SMA200: $9.02
$11.73$9.17$6.62$4.06$1.51RES $6.65SUP $2.11$2.312026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARI Butterfly Map → + Track ARI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARI)

Financials Rank #532 of 1097 ⚔️ KREF vs ARI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARI vs. KREF, PINE, NREF, LAND)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) ranks #532 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #810 by equity capitalization ($296.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ARI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ARI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARI ACTIVE
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
D+ 55/100 6.5x — 6.8% -0.86% $296.2M Benchmark Subject
KREF
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -4.0% -0.76% $300.9M /kref-vs-ari →
PINE
Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.
D 47/100 — — 3.8% +3.23% $303.6M /pine-vs-ari →
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc.
D 47/100 — — — -0.93% $282.2M /nref-vs-ari →
LAND
Gladstone Land Corporation
D- 43/100 24.9x — 2.0% +0.14% $320.1M /land-vs-ari →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001467760 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported GAAP revenue of $271.6M (-10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $303.7M , and -21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $126.7M, operating cash flow of $142.5M, and free cash flow of $142.5M (-28.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARI closed FY2025 with $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $271.6M $126.7M $142.5M $142.5M $9.90B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $303.7M -$119.6M $200.3M $200.3M $8.41B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $344.6M $58.1M $273.9M $273.9M — —

3. ARI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (NYSE: ARI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $296.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARI ranks #532 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARI compare to KREF and PINE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARI carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $300.9M) and PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $303.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARI?

Per ARI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001467760), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc generated $271.6M in revenue (-10.6% YoY), $126.7M in net income, and $142.5M in free cash flow against $9.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARI last traded at $2.31 (-0.86% on volume of 8,554,817 shares), positioning the stock -62.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.23) and -74.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.02). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $11.24, ARI sits at the 0.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($2.21 to $2.41).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARI RQD Cockpit ARI 12M Forecast ARI Earnings & Move ARI Dividends & DRIP ARI Insiders & 13F ARI Whale Options ARI Profit Sankey ARI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARI — Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market capitalization $296.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 17.23%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) is listed on the NYSE and operates in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry within the Financials sector, profile. — describes the company's products, customers, or revenue mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification. The profile section identifies ARI as a NYSE-listed Financials issuer with a market capitalization of $0.8B. The recent news headlines reference a NYSE delisting date and a liquidation plan, which indicate the company's current corporate status but do not specify operating details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) reported $271.6M in annual revenue (up from $303.7M in FY2024, -10.6% YoY) and $126.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($344.6M revenue, $58.1M net income) through FY2025, ARI scaled operating cash flow to $142.5M and free cash flow to $142.5M, backed by $9.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 17.23% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.30 – $11.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 6.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not documented in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 6.8% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $271.6M and free cash flow of $142.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARI's 6.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.80 (+20.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The FCF yield of 17.23% and the insider conviction pillar score of 16 out of 20 indicate strong cash generation and insider cluster sup

Long ARI at $2.33 targeting $2.80. The FCF yield of 17.23% and the insider conviction pillar score of 16 out of 20 indicate strong cash generation and insider cluster support relative to the price.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.30 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.33 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.84 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $2.33

The recent headlines describe a NYSE delisting and liquidation plan, with a RED-flagged RISK WATCH item noting a stock decline followin

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ARI: The recent headlines describe a NYSE delisting and liquidation plan, with a RED-flagged RISK WATCH item noting a stock decline following the move to liquidation.. At 6.5x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE