Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASLE / financials

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AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$4.83 +2.99% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.85

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $223.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASLE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ: ASLE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $4.83 (+2.99% 1D, market cap $223.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASLE ranks #909 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), ASLE carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.1x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 2.3%. By comparison, HDSN (Hudson Technologies Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $186.0M) and VIRC (Virco Manufacturing Corporation) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 38.2x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $98.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HDSN leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while HDSN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?

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Per ASLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754170), AerSale Corporation generated $335.3M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $8.6M in net income, and -$29.1M in free cash flow against $640.5M in total assets and $111.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.85 (+0.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASLE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASLE SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (43% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.92 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+5/20 pts (18% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.96-4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.76-1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.71+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$4.83-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASLE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASLE currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.18) and Max Pain ($5.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASLE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASLE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ASLE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $334.5M

FY24

Rev $345.1M

FY25

Rev $335.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$335.3M	31.5%	4.7%	$8.6M	-$29.1M	2.3%
FY 2024	$345.1M	30.1%	2.8%	$5.9M	-$2.9M	1.6%
FY 2023	$334.5M	31.5%	-3.2%	-$5.6M	-$174.2M	2.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASLE)

✓Walkthrough of ASLE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ASLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.87%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $4.58H $4.83L $4.58C $4.83VOL 480.5K

RES: $5.68SUP: $4.42SMA50: $5.18SMA200: $6.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASLE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASLE Butterfly Map → + Track ASLE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASLE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASLE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASLE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASLE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #909 of 1011 ⚔️ HDSN vs ASLE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASLE vs. HDSN, VIRC, ADSE, WBX)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) ranks #909 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #680 by equity capitalization ($223.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HDSN leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while HDSN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. WBX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with ASLE at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASLE ACTIVE AerSale Corporation	E	28/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+2.99%	$223.8M	Benchmark Subject
HDSN Hudson Technologies Inc.	E	31/100	11.2x	25.2%	7.2%	-2.49%	$186.0M	/hdsn-vs-asle →
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Corporation	D-	43/100	38.2x	40.7%	3.0%	-0.48%	$98.2M	/virc-vs-asle →
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	D	47/100	—	—	—	+0.92%	$731.8M	/adse-vs-asle →
WBX Wallbox N.V. (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	—	-1.79%	$66.9M	/wbx-vs-asle →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754170

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AerSale Corporation (ASLE) reported GAAP revenue of $335.3M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $345.1M , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.6M, operating cash flow of -$23.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.1M (-912.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASLE closed FY2025 with $640.5M in total assets against $111.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.92, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$335.3M	$8.6M	-$23.0M	-$29.1M	$640.5M	$111.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$345.1M	$5.9M	$11.2M	-$2.9M	$604.7M	$40.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$334.5M	-$5.6M	-$174.2M	-$174.2M	—	—

3. ASLE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?

Where is ASLE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASLE last traded at $4.83 (+2.99% on volume of 467,363 shares), positioning the stock -6.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.18) and -22.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.24). Across its 52-week range of $4.54 to $7.93, ASLE sits at the 8.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($4.48 to $5.18).

ASLE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is AerSale Corporation (ASLE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ASLE converted $335.3M of revenue into a 31.5% gross margin, 4.7% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASLE RQD Cockpit ASLE 12M Forecast ASLE Earnings & Move ASLE Dividends & DRIP ASLE Insiders & 13F ASLE Whale Options ASLE Profit Sankey ASLE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ASLE — AerSale Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:40:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ASLE scores 28 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 3 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 2.3% and FCF yield of -12.98%. Low returns on invested capital combined with negative free-cash-flow yield mean the business is not currently generating cash relative to its market value. For a prospective investor, the upside case here depends on a return to cash generation that the rating does not show as established.
Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. Institutional accumulation and options positioning scored low. Investors evaluating the stock should note the absence of strong institutional sponsorship signals in the rating.
Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored low, indicating limited insider-conviction signals.
Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity were scored low. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, so it offers no defensive character from the rating's perspective, and its sector sensitivity was judged unfavorable.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. This is the strongest pillar, citing Altman Z of 1.92, Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.26. These support a balance sheet that is not in acute distress, though the Altman and Piotroski readings are moderate rather than strong.

Taken together, the rating points to weak cash economics and weak market-signal support, partially offset by a balance sheet that the rating considers serviceable. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 26.1 and EV/EBITDA of 15.8 are elevated relative to the cash-yield picture, so a prospective investor is paying a premium for earnings that the free-cash-flow data does not yet confirm.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
4.69	$223.8M	26.1	24.3	15.8	0.18	0%	1.0	$4.54 - $7.93	2.3%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$335.3M	$15.8M	$8.6M	N/A	$-29.1M	$4.4M	$111.3M
FY 2024	$345.1M	$9.7M	$5.9M	N/A	$-2.9M	$4.7M	$40.4M
FY 2023	$334.5M	$-10.8M	$-5.6M	N/A	$-174.2M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income moved from $-10.8M in FY 2023 to $9.7M in FY 2024 and $15.8M in FY 2025, and net income moved from $-5.6M to $5.9M to $8.6M over the same span. Free cash flow remained negative in all three periods, at $-174.2M, $-2.9M, and $-29.1M. Debt rose from $40.4M in FY 2024 to $111.3M in FY 2025, while cash was $4.4M at FY 2025. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 2.3%, Altman Z is 1.92, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.26.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items dated within roughly the prior 15 hours, all tagged to ASLE with YELLOW light status and MARKET WIRE impact label. Headlines include: an announcement of the date for the Third Quarter 2026 earnings release conference call; a TradingView estimates report; a MarketBeat report on an average price target of $6.83; a MarketScreener report that B. Riley adjusted its price target to $6 from $7.50 while keeping a Neutral rating; a Stock Traders Daily liquidity-focused piece; and a MarketBeat report on a consensus target price of $6.33. The earnings-call date announcement is the most concrete scheduled catalyst referenced. The price-target revisions shown in headlines are a risk-watch item, as they indicate a downward adjustment by at least one covering firm. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are recorded.

Open Questions

What are the company's specific products, customers, and revenue drivers, given that the business description is not provided in source data?
Why is free cash flow negative in all three reported periods despite positive operating and net income in FY 2024 and FY 2025?
What drove the increase in debt from $40.4M to $111.3M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and how is it being serviced?
What is the EPS figure for each reported period, since the financials show N/A throughout?
What is the breakdown of analyst ratings and price targets beyond the headline-level references in the news wire?

ASLE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AerSale Corporation (ASLE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASLE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 9h ago

AerSale® Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 12h ago

AerSale Corporation Estimates – NASDAQ:ASLE

TradingView report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 15h ago

AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) Stock Has Average Price Target of $6.83 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 18h ago

B. Riley Adjusts Price Target on AerSale to $6 From $7.50, Keeps Neutral Rating

www.marketscreener.com report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 21h ago

(ASLE) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional Tactics

Stock Traders Daily report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $6.33

MarketBeat report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

ASLE Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 91.22M USD

TradingView report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Ticks Higher to $4.69 as Stock Holds Above Key Support - News Sentiment

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering AerSale Corporation (ASLE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASLE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.83?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASLE 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.13 (-11.9%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ASLE (E • RQD 28/100) a Buy at $4.69?

Welcome to the ASLE (AerSale Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 28/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Industrial Specialties. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.52 (-24.9%)

Spot @ $4.69

Pump the brakes on ASLE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ASLE, but look at what you are paying: 26.1x trailing P/E with 31.5% gross margins. Unless AerSale Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.00 (+27.9%)

Spot @ $4.69

ASLE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ASLE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Specialties and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $4.69 (52-wk range $4.54 - $7.93), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.