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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BFH / dividends
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Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$107.16 +3.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.66

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.93B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BFH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BFH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $107.16 (+3.63% 1D, market cap $3.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BFH ranks #392 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BFH compare to DLO and PAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), BFH carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, DLO (DLocal Limited (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.82B) and PAY (Paymentus Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $4.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFH leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while PAY leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFH?
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Per BFH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001101215), Bread Financial Holdings Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (+87.0% YoY), $518.0M in net income, and $2.09B in free cash flow against $22.66B in total assets and $8.70B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.65 (+0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 122.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$126 Bull$107 Base$83 Bear
📬 FREE BFH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BFH SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$98.96+9.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$108.63-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$104.73+2.3% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$107.16-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, BFH faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($103.72) or 200D SMA ($92.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.68) toward Bear Floor ($83.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BFH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.8% Total Yield
1% Cash ($1.07/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (9.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $24,782

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $694/yr
$10.9K
Yr 1
$12.0K
Yr 2
$13.1K
Yr 3
$14.4K
Yr 4
$15.7K
Yr 5
$17.2K
Yr 6
$18.9K
Yr 7
$20.7K
Yr 8
$22.6K
Yr 9
$24.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BFH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BFH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BFH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $105.7H $107.2L $103.4C $107.2VOL 613.6K
RES: $108.5SUP: $95.44SMA50: $103.7SMA200: $92.25
$117.7$104.6$91.43$78.29$65.15RES $108.5SUP $95.44$107.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BFH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BFH Butterfly Map → + Track BFH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +87.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #392 of 1009 ⚔️ DLO vs BFH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BFH vs. DLO, PAY, MMS, FOUR)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) ranks #392 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #314 by equity capitalization ($3.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFH leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while PAY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 24.8% gross margin. PAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with BFH at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BFH ACTIVE
Bread Financial Holdings Inc.
D+ 57/100 7.7x — 6.4% +3.63% $3.93B Benchmark Subject
DLO
DLocal Limited (Class A)
D 47/100 — — — +2.16% $3.82B /dlo-vs-bfh →
PAY
Paymentus Holdings Inc. (Class A)
B 74/100 60.7x 24.8% 24.9% +6.80% $4.13B /pay-vs-bfh →
MMS
Maximus Inc.
C+ 68/100 10.3x 24.6% 13.5% +4.44% $3.34B /mms-vs-bfh →
FOUR
Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A)
D 44/100 21.1x — 5.5% +5.10% $3.16B /four-vs-bfh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001101215 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.71B (+87.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $915.2M , and -27.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $518.0M, operating cash flow of $2.09B, and free cash flow of $2.09B (+12.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFH closed FY2025 with $22.66B in total assets against $8.70B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.48, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.71B $518.0M $2.09B $2.09B $22.66B $8.70B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $915.2M $277.0M $1.86B $1.86B $22.89B $8.93B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.37B $718.0M $1.99B $1.99B $2.21B $516.2M

3. BFH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BFH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BFH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $107.16 (+3.63% 1D, market cap $3.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BFH ranks #392 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BFH compare to DLO and PAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), BFH carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, DLO (DLocal Limited (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.82B) and PAY (Paymentus Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $4.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFH leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while PAY leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFH?

Per BFH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001101215), Bread Financial Holdings Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (+87.0% YoY), $518.0M in net income, and $2.09B in free cash flow against $22.66B in total assets and $8.70B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BFH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BFH last traded at $107.16 (+3.63% on volume of 586,340 shares), positioning the stock +3.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($103.72) and +16.16% above its 200-day simple moving average ($92.25). Across its 52-week range of $59.26 to $114.53, BFH sits at the 86.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($100.41 to $113.91).

Direct Sub-Reports: BFH RQD Cockpit BFH 12M Forecast BFH Earnings & Move BFH Dividends & DRIP BFH Insiders & 13F BFH Whale Options BFH Profit Sankey BFH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BFH — Bread Financial Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $107.16 (+3.63% 1D, market capitalization $3.93B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 56.3%, and free cash flow yield of 22.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.12x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.48, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.44x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry. It carries a market capitalization of $4.0B. —: product lines, customer segments, and revenue model details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) reported $1.71B in annual revenue (up from $915.2M in FY2024, +87.0% YoY) and $518.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.37B revenue, $718.0M net income) through FY2025, BFH scaled operating cash flow to $2.09B and free cash flow to $2.09B, backed by $22.66B in total assets against $8.70B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 22.00% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $59.26 – $114.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 7.7x trailing P/E and 12.6x EV/EBITDA against 56.3% operating margins and a 1.12x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no bottleneck identifications for BFH.

  • Key Question #1: Can BFH sustain or expand its 56.3% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.71B and free cash flow of $2.09B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $8.70B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BFH's 6.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.12x)?

BFH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BFH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BFH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $107.16?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BFH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BFH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $119.96 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and Piotroski F is 8 of 9, indicating strong insider activity and improving financial quality.

Picked up a starter position in BFH in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $103.41. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and Piotroski F is 8 of 9, indicating strong insider activity and improving financial quality.. Trading inside a $59.26–$114.53 52-week range with 22.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Business Services multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.12 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $103.41 and keeping dry powder in case we test $96.17.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $78.59 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $103.41

Altman Z of 0.48 and Debt/Equity of 2.44 combined with a ROIC of 6.4% signal weak balance-sheet and return fundamentals.

Fading this rally in BFH at $103.41. Altman Z of 0.48 and Debt/Equity of 2.44 combined with a ROIC of 6.4% signal weak balance-sheet and return fundamentals.. With a beta of 1.12 and the stock sitting at $103.41 (52-wk range $59.26–$114.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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