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Stock Ratings / Financials / BXMT / earnings
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Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.2% Move

$11.08 -1.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.02

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.88B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BXMT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #644 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BXMT compare to DHC and ARR in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?
▼

Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $8.40B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
🎯 BXMT TRADE EXECUTION LEVELS + TODAY'S TOP 3 TRADES EXACT ENTRY • HARD STOP-LOSS (SUP) • TARGET (RES) • WHY

Where to Enter $BXMT, Where to Set Your Hard Stop-Loss & Today's Top 3 High-Conviction Trades

🏆 RECENT ALERT WINNERS: $XYZ +15.6% (2d) $PLTR +13.7% (4d) $VRT +8.4% (2d)
CURRENT TICKER SETUP • $BXMT R/R 2.2 : 1 • RQD 50/100 (D)
$BXMT
Spot $11.08
1. GET IN (ENTRY)
$11.01–$11.14
2. HARD STOP (SUP)
$10.50 (-5.2%)
3. GET OUT (T1/T2)
$11.80 / $12.35
STOP-LOSS FLOOR (SUP $10.50): Hard stop sits 5.2% below spot to cap downside below key institutional support. If $BXMT closes a daily candle below $10.50, step aside.
PROFIT TARGETS (RES $11.80 / $12.35): Scale out 50% at T1 (+6.5%) and trail stop to breakeven for T2 (+11.5%).
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⚡ TODAY'S TOP 3 SUGGESTED TRADES OF THE DAY (100% FREE CHEAT SHEET) Trade #1 Unlocked • Enter Email Below to Unblur #2 & #3 + Get $BXMT Sheet
#1 • $MU R/R 3.2 : 1
Micron Technology, Inc.
IN
$108.50
STOP
$103.90
OUT
$117.50
#2 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.4 : 1
AI Liquid-Cooling Leader
Target: +8.53% to +14.86% | Stop: -3.89%
#3 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.1 : 1
Cash-Flow Buyback Machine
Target: +8.38% to +14.53% | Stop: -3.93%
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.02 (-0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 3.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$22 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE BXMT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BXMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BXMT SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$10.58-3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$10.20+3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$10.56+4.9% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$11.08-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BXMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BXMT currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.06) and Max Pain ($11.63) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $21.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BXMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BXMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.2% Swing Band

±$0.80 Expected Swing
$10.28 (-7.2%)Spot $11.08$11.88 (+7.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BXMT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $0.65 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$8.40B$109.6M$275.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$8.32B-$204.1M$366.5M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.74B$246.6M$458.8M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BXMT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BXMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BXMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.05%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $11.00H $11.30L $11.00C $11.08VOL 4.90M
RES: $11.04SUP: $9.27🎯 Entry / Stop & Top 3 Trades ↑SMA50: $12.06SMA200: $16.58
$20.16$17.44$14.72$12.00$9.28RES $11.04SUP $9.27$11.082026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BXMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BXMT Butterfly Map → + Track BXMT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
9.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BXMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BXMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BXMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BXMT)

Financials Rank #644 of 1097 ⚔️ DHC vs BXMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BXMT vs. DHC, ARR, RLJ, SMA)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) ranks #644 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #434 by equity capitalization ($1.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. SMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with BXMT at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BXMT ACTIVE
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.
D 50/100 16.7x — 3.1% -1.95% $1.88B Benchmark Subject
DHC
Diversified Healthcare Trust of
E 25/100 — — -17.2% -2.45% $1.87B /dhc-vs-bxmt →
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.
D 49/100 5.9x — 14.3% -2.26% $1.84B /arr-vs-bxmt →
RLJ
RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value
C- 60/100 67.9x — 1.3% -1.33% $1.94B /rlj-vs-bxmt →
SMA
SmartStop Self Storage REIT Inc.
C 63/100 — — 4.1% -1.61% $2.06B /sma-vs-bxmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001061630 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported GAAP revenue of $8.40B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.32B , and +381.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $275.9M, and free cash flow of $275.9M (-24.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BXMT closed FY2025 with $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.40B $109.6M $275.9M $275.9M $20.00B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.32B -$204.1M $366.5M $366.5M $19.80B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.74B $246.6M $458.8M $458.8M — —

3. BXMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #644 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BXMT compare to DHC and ARR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?

Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $8.40B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BXMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BXMT last traded at $11.08 (-1.95% on volume of 7,804,274 shares), positioning the stock -8.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.06) and -33.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.58). Across its 52-week range of $10.12 to $20.67, BXMT sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($10.28 to $11.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: BXMT RQD Cockpit BXMT 12M Forecast BXMT Earnings & Move BXMT Dividends & DRIP BXMT Insiders & 13F BXMT Whale Options BXMT Profit Sankey BXMT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BXMT — Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market capitalization $1.88B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.06%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry..8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported $8.40B in annual revenue (up from $8.32B in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and $109.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.74B revenue, $246.6M net income) through FY2025, BXMT scaled operating cash flow to $275.9M and free cash flow to $275.9M, backed by $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 15.06% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.12 – $20.67 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context available is that BXMT sits in Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts.

  • Key Question #1: Can BXMT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.1% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.40B and free cash flow of $275.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BXMT's 15.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BXMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BXMT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BXMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BXMT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BXMT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.75 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

FCF yield of 15.06% and a forward P/E of 15.5 suggest the cash generation is priced modestly relative to reported free cash flow.

Don't sleep on BXMT's setup in Financials. FCF yield of 15.06% and a forward P/E of 15.5 suggest the cash generation is priced modestly relative to reported free cash flow.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (50/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BXMT's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.02 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $11.00

A 3.1% ROIC, a D-grade RQD score, and news of a Q3 net loss and dividend cut point to weak returns and distribution risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on BXMT: A 3.1% ROIC, a D-grade RQD score, and news of a Q3 net loss and dividend cut point to weak returns and distribution risk.. At 16.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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