Yahoo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why BXMT Stock slipped -1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #644 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does BXMT compare to DHC and ARR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?
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Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $8.40B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where to Enter $BXMT, Where to Set Your Hard Stop-Loss & Today's Top 3 High-Conviction Trades
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BXMT Turnaround Squeeze
While BXMT currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.06) and Max Pain ($11.63) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $21.70.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why BXMT Stock slipped -1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) slipped -1.95% to $11.08, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($10.12 – $20.67). Stretched risk/reward at 17x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($10.12 – $20.67) with RSI-14 at 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $11.08 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $275.9M annual free cash flow.
Seeking Alpha report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
BigGo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
We're at the halfway point of another surprisingly strong REIT earnings season. Click here to read more on the REITs report.
2026-11-01. The following slide deck was published by Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
The Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BXMT)
- ✓Walkthrough of BXMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
BXMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BXMT today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BXMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BXMT)
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BXMT vs. DHC, ARR, RLJ, SMA)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) ranks #644 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #434 by equity capitalization ($1.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. SMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with BXMT at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT
ACTIVE
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. | D | 50/100 | 16.7x | — | 3.1% | -1.95% | $1.88B | Benchmark Subject |
| DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust of | E | 25/100 | — | — | -17.2% | -2.45% | $1.87B | /dhc-vs-bxmt → |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. | D | 49/100 | 5.9x | — | 14.3% | -2.26% | $1.84B | /arr-vs-bxmt → |
| RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value | C- | 60/100 | 67.9x | — | 1.3% | -1.33% | $1.94B | /rlj-vs-bxmt → |
| SMA SmartStop Self Storage REIT Inc. | C | 63/100 | — | — | 4.1% | -1.61% | $2.06B | /sma-vs-bxmt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001061630 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported GAAP revenue of $8.40B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.32B , and +381.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $275.9M, and free cash flow of $275.9M (-24.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BXMT closed FY2025 with $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $8.40B | $109.6M | $275.9M | $275.9M | $20.00B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $8.32B | -$204.1M | $366.5M | $366.5M | $19.80B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.74B | $246.6M | $458.8M | $458.8M | — | — |
3. BXMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #644 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BXMT compare to DHC and ARR in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?
Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $8.40B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BXMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BXMT last traded at $11.08 (-1.95% on volume of 7,804,274 shares), positioning the stock -8.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.06) and -33.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.58). Across its 52-week range of $10.12 to $20.67, BXMT sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($10.28 to $11.88).
BXMT — Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.08 (-1.95% 1D, market capitalization $1.88B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.06%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry..8B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported $8.40B in annual revenue (up from $8.32B in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and $109.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.74B revenue, $246.6M net income) through FY2025, BXMT scaled operating cash flow to $275.9M and free cash flow to $275.9M, backed by $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 15.06% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.12 – $20.67 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
The only sector context available is that BXMT sits in Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts.
- Key Question #1: Can BXMT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.1% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.40B and free cash flow of $275.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is BXMT's 15.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
BXMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
BigGo Finance report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
We're at the halfway point of another surprisingly strong REIT earnings season. Click here to read more on the REITs report.
BXMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.08?
FCF yield of 15.06% and a forward P/E of 15.5 suggest the cash generation is priced modestly relative to reported free cash flow.
Don't sleep on BXMT's setup in Financials. FCF yield of 15.06% and a forward P/E of 15.5 suggest the cash generation is priced modestly relative to reported free cash flow.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (50/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
Both sides have a point here — BXMT's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
A 3.1% ROIC, a D-grade RQD score, and news of a Q3 net loss and dividend cut point to weak returns and distribution risk.
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on BXMT: A 3.1% ROIC, a D-grade RQD score, and news of a Q3 net loss and dividend cut point to weak returns and distribution risk.. At 16.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.