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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CGON / earnings
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CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.8% Move

$64.06 +3.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.33

CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.49B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CGON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, CG Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: CGON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $64.06 (+3.39% 1D, market cap $5.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CGON ranks #418 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGON compare to SRRK and IMVT in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), CGON carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.8%. By comparison, SRRK (Scholar Rock Holding Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.23B) and IMVT (Immunovant Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CGON leads on capital efficiency (-20.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGON?
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Per CGON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001991792), CG Oncology Inc. generated $534.2M in revenue (+66.4% YoY), -$161.0M in net income, and -$132.5M in free cash flow against $791.6M in total assets and $3.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.33 (+0.42%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (9)SEC (14)Macro (5)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$85 Bull$59 Base$46 Bear
📬 FREE CGON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CGON SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (41.5) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$61.86+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$62.54+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$63.47+0.9% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$64.06-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CGON currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($68.20) and Max Pain ($67.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $85.02.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CGON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.8% Swing Band

±$5.00 Expected Swing
$59.06 (-7.8%)Spot $64.06$69.06 (+7.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CGON Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 42/100

Trailing EPS: $-1.82 • YoY Revenue Growth: 8.8%

Model Bullish Setup (42/100)Model Risk Weight (58/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$534.2M-$161.0M-$132.5M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$321.1M-$88.0M-$78.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$155.3M-$48.6M-$45.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGON)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CGON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CGON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $64.68H $64.68L $61.96C $64.06VOL 1.28M
RES: $87.21SUP: $57.39SMA50: $68.20SMA200: $66.07
$83.40$73.34$63.27$53.21$43.15RES $87.21SUP $57.39$64.062026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CGON Butterfly Map → + Track CGON →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +66.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGON)

Health Care Rank #418 of 1015 ⚔️ SRRK vs CGON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CGON vs. SRRK, IMVT, KOD, CRSP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) ranks #418 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #149 by equity capitalization ($5.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGON leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CGON leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.8% ROIC and — gross margin. KOD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with CGON at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CGON ACTIVE
CG Oncology Inc.
D- 42/100 — — -20.8% +3.39% $5.49B Benchmark Subject
SRRK
Scholar Rock Holding Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -35.0% +2.49% $5.23B /srrk-vs-cgon →
IMVT
Immunovant Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +2.22% $5.87B /imvt-vs-cgon →
KOD
Kodiak Sciences Inc
D+ 54/100 — — -35.0% +1.30% $6.14B /kod-vs-cgon →
CRSP
CRISPR Therapeutics AG
D- 35/100 — — -30.6% 0.00% $4.83B /crsp-vs-cgon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001991792 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) reported GAAP revenue of $534.2M (+66.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $321.1M , and +244.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$161.0M, operating cash flow of -$132.3M, and free cash flow of -$132.5M (-67.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGON closed FY2025 with $791.6M in total assets against $3.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $534.2M -$161.0M -$132.3M -$132.5M $791.6M $3.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $321.1M -$88.0M -$78.7M -$78.9M $754.8M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $155.3M -$48.6M -$45.7M -$45.7M $3.09B $724.1M

3. CGON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, CG Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: CGON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $64.06 (+3.39% 1D, market cap $5.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CGON ranks #418 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGON compare to SRRK and IMVT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), CGON carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.8%. By comparison, SRRK (Scholar Rock Holding Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.23B) and IMVT (Immunovant Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CGON leads on capital efficiency (-20.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGON?

Per CGON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001991792), CG Oncology Inc. generated $534.2M in revenue (+66.4% YoY), -$161.0M in net income, and -$132.5M in free cash flow against $791.6M in total assets and $3.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGON last traded at $64.06 (+3.39% on volume of 724,795 shares), positioning the stock -6.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($68.20) and -3.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($66.07). Across its 52-week range of $35.80 to $80.97, CGON sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($59.06 to $69.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: CGON RQD Cockpit CGON 12M Forecast CGON Earnings & Move CGON Dividends & DRIP CGON Insiders & 13F CGON Whale Options CGON Profit Sankey CGON News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CGON — CG Oncology Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $64.06 (+3.39% 1D, market capitalization $5.49B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -20.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -12.1%, and free cash flow yield of -2.35%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.07x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

CG Oncology Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry,. Reported revenue is — in each of the three listed fiscal years, so the source does not show a revenue-generating operating base.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) reported $534.2M in annual revenue (up from $321.1M in FY2024, +66.4% YoY) and -$161.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($155.3M revenue, -$48.6M net income) through FY2025, CGON scaled operating cash flow to -$132.3M and free cash flow to -$132.5M, backed by $791.6M in total assets against $3.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -2.35% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.80 – $80.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -12.1% operating margins and a 1.07x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), CGON carries a macro regime beta of 1.07 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CGON sustain or expand its -12.1% operating margin and -20.8% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $534.2M and free cash flow of -$132.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CGON's 20.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.07x)?

CGON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for CG Oncology Inc. (CGON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CGON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CGON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $64.06?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CGON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CGON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $79.56 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 26, the strongest pillar in the rating.

The street is overcomplicating CG Oncology Inc. (CGON). The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 26, the strongest pillar in the rating.. With an RQD score of 42/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $69.85.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CGON's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $52.39 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $64.68

ROIC of -20.8% and FCF of -$132.5M in FY 2025 show the cash engine is consuming capital, with cash down from $257.1M to $32.5M.

I respect the product at CG Oncology Inc., but the stock at $64.68 is a different story. ROIC of -20.8% and FCF of -$132.5M in FY 2025 show the cash engine is consuming capital, with cash down from $257.1M to $32.5M.. FCF yield is -2.35% and RQD sits at 42/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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