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ALH (61) BMI (77) MIR (54) VNT (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

ESAB Corporation (ESAB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$76.30 +9.38% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.44

ESAB Corporation (ESAB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $4.34B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ESAB Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, ESAB Corporation (NYSE: ESAB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $76.30 (+9.38% 1D, market cap $4.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ESAB ranks #195 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESAB compare to ALH and BMI in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ESAB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of 36.9%, and ROIC of 10.1%. By comparison, ALH (Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 45.1x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $4.37B) and BMI (Badger Meter Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 30.2x, ROIC 18.3%, cap $4.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VNT leads on earnings multiple (11.9x) while ALH leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESAB?
β–Ό

Per ESAB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877322), ESAB Corporation generated $2.84B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $226.8M in net income, and $213.3M in free cash flow against $4.77B in total assets and $1.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.44 (+1.50%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 7.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510053
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$144 Bull$75 Base$58 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ESAB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESAB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ESAB SCORES 53/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.35 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.5) create a -14 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$64.56+2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$66.36+6.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$70.91+7.6% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$76.30-0.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (45) β†’ D+ (53)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ESAB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ESAB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($69.63) and Max Pain ($80.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $144.29.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESABβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œESAB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±9.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ESAB)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ESAB.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ESAB)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ESAB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ESAB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.61%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $74.13H $76.30L $69.76C $76.30VOL 1.52M
RES: $85.87SUP: $50.42SMA50: $69.63SMA200: $92.58
$117.7$102.8$87.90$73.01$58.12RES $85.87SUP $50.42$76.302026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESAB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ESAB Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ESAB β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESAB today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESAB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESAB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESAB)

Industrials Rank #195 of 486 βš”οΈ ALH vs ESAB Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ESAB vs. ALH, BMI, MIR, VNT)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ESAB Corporation (ESAB) ranks #195 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #159 by equity capitalization ($4.34B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VNT leads on earnings valuation at 11.9x trailing P/E, while ALH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. BMI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with ESAB at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ESAB ACTIVE
ESAB Corporation
D+ 53/100 20.3x 36.9% 10.1% +9.38% $4.34B Benchmark Subject
ALH
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
C- 61/100 45.1x 37.6% 85.0% +2.41% $4.37B /alh-vs-esab β†’
BMI
Badger Meter Inc.
B+ 77/100 30.2x 41.7% 18.3% +6.27% $4.24B /bmi-vs-esab β†’
MIR
Mirion Technologies Inc.
D+ 54/100 159.1x 47.4% 2.1% +1.69% $4.51B /mir-vs-esab β†’
VNT
Vontier Corporation
C+ 67/100 11.9x β€” 18.9% +3.40% $4.82B /vnt-vs-esab β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001877322 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ESAB Corporation (ESAB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.84B (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.74B , and +2.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $226.8M, operating cash flow of $260.6M, and free cash flow of $213.3M (-29.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESAB closed FY2025 with $4.77B in total assets against $1.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.35, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.84B $226.8M $260.6M $213.3M $4.77B $1.23B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.74B $264.8M $355.4M $303.6M $4.03B $1.06B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.77B $205.3M $330.5M $205.6M $3.33B $779.2M

3. ESAB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESAB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ESAB Corporation (NYSE: ESAB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $76.30 (+9.38% 1D, market cap $4.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ESAB ranks #195 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ESAB compare to ALH and BMI in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ESAB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of 36.9%, and ROIC of 10.1%. By comparison, ALH (Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 45.1x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $4.37B) and BMI (Badger Meter Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 30.2x, ROIC 18.3%, cap $4.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VNT leads on earnings multiple (11.9x) while ALH leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESAB?

Per ESAB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877322), ESAB Corporation generated $2.84B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $226.8M in net income, and $213.3M in free cash flow against $4.77B in total assets and $1.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESAB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESAB last traded at $76.30 (+9.38% on volume of 1,333,271 shares), positioning the stock +9.58% above its 50-day simple moving average ($69.63) and -17.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($92.58). Across its 52-week range of $62.74 to $137.42, ESAB sits at the 18.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.1% ($69.36 to $83.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: ESAB RQD Cockpit ESAB 12M Forecast ESAB Earnings & Move ESAB Dividends & DRIP ESAB Insiders & 13F ESAB Whale Options ESAB Profit Sankey ESAB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 53/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ESAB β€” ESAB Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ESAB Corporation (ESAB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $76.30 (+9.38% 1D, market capitalization $4.34B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.1%, gross margin of 36.9%, operating margin of 14.5%, and free cash flow yield of 4.63%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.35, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.57x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ESAB Corporation (ESAB) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The profile identifies it as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $4.6B. β€” for the specific products sold, customer base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ESAB Corporation (ESAB) reported $2.84B in annual revenue (up from $2.74B in FY2024, +3.7% YoY) and $226.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.77B revenue, $205.3M net income) through FY2025, ESAB scaled operating cash flow to $260.6M and free cash flow to $213.3M, backed by $4.77B in total assets against $1.23B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 53/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 4.63% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $62.74 – $137.42 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 20.3x trailing P/E and 12.5x EV/EBITDA against 14.5% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” for upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlation pathways. An investor should treat second-order ripple analysis as unresolved by the provided data and watch the Q3 2026 earnings release as the next source of operational detail.

  • Key Question #1: Can ESAB sustain or expand its 14.5% operating margin and 10.1% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.84B and free cash flow of $213.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.23B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ESAB's 18.9x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

ESAB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ESAB Corporation (ESAB) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ESAB Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESAB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $76.30?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESAB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ESAB:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $89.99 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction is the rating's strongest pillar at 15 / 20, backed by a 4.63% FCF yield and a 0.89 beta.

The street is overcomplicating ESAB Corporation (ESAB). Insider conviction is the rating's strongest pillar at 15 / 20, backed by a 4.63% FCF yield and a 0.89 beta.. With an RQD score of 53/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $75.34.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ESAB's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $54.41 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $69.76

The composite RQD score of 56 carries a Trim verdict, with macro regime fit at only 6 / 20 and debt rising to $1.23B while cash fell

I respect the product at ESAB Corporation, but the stock at $69.76 is a different story. The composite RQD score of 56 carries a Trim verdict, with macro regime fit at only 6 / 20 and debt rising to $1.23B while cash fell to $185.9M.. FCF yield is 4.63% and RQD sits at 53/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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