How profitable is Elastic N.V. (ESTC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ESTC converted $1.7B of revenue into a 76.1% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $321.8M in free cash flow (18.5% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Technology / ESTC / financials

NTSK (46) PCOR (68) FIG (57) FROG (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$91.34 -6.11% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.16

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.31B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ESTC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $91.34 (-6.11% 1D, market cap $10.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, ESTC ranks #179 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESTC compare to NTSK and PCOR in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ESTC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.8x, gross margin of 76.1%, and ROIC of -3.0%. By comparison, NTSK (Netskope Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $9.93B) and PCOR (Procore Technologies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.2%, cap $9.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ESTC leads on earnings multiple (29.8x) while ESTC leads on capital efficiency (-3.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTC?

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Per ESTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001707753), Elastic N.V. generated $1.74B in revenue (+17.3% YoY), $367.8M in net income, and $321.8M in free cash flow against $2.44B in total assets and $741.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.16 (-1.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 18.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESTC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ESTC SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.38 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$92.06+7.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$98.81+7.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$106.58-14.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C$91.34+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ESTC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, ESTC faces multiple-compression risk if 29.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($93.35) or 200D SMA ($67.69) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($92.98) toward Bear Floor ($72.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESTC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ESTC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ESTC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$321.8M (18.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.27B

FY24

Rev $1.48B

FY25

Rev $1.74B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.74B	76.1%	-1.9%	$367.8M	$321.8M	-3.3%
FY 2024	$1.48B	74.4%	-3.7%	$367.8K	$261.8M	-4.6%
FY 2023	$1.27B	76.1%	-10.3%	-$108.1K	$91.7M	-2.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ESTC)

✓Walkthrough of ESTC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ESTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +80.30%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-11-03O $103.3H $103.3L $91.34C $91.34VOL 1.49M

RES: $107.4SUP: $69.26SMA50: $93.35SMA200: $67.69

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESTC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ESTC Butterfly Map → + Track ESTC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

23.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESTC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESTC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESTC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESTC)

Technology Rank #179 of 715 ⚔️ NTSK vs ESTC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ESTC vs. NTSK, PCOR, FIG, FROG)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) ranks #179 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #147 by equity capitalization ($10.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ESTC leads on earnings valuation at 29.8x trailing P/E, while ESTC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -3.0% ROIC and 76.1% gross margin. PCOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with ESTC at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ESTC ACTIVE Elastic N.V.	C	62/100	29.8x	76.1%	-3.0%	-6.11%	$10.31B	Benchmark Subject
NTSK Netskope Inc.	D	46/100	—	68.1%	-35.0%	-9.46%	$9.93B	/ntsk-vs-estc →
PCOR Procore Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	—	79.5%	-8.2%	+1.94%	$9.33B	/pcor-vs-estc →
FIG Figma Inc.	D+	57/100	—	82.4%	-35.0%	+2.54%	$11.54B	/fig-vs-estc →
FROG JFrog Ltd.	C	64/100	—	76.8%	-7.2%	-9.83%	$11.64B	/frog-vs-estc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001707753 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.74B (+17.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.48B , and +37.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $367.8M, operating cash flow of $326.9M, and free cash flow of $321.8M (+22.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESTC closed FY2025 with $2.44B in total assets against $741.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.38, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-04-30	$1.74B	$367.8M	$326.9M	$321.8M	$2.44B	$741.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-04-30	$1.48B	$367.8K	$266.2M	$261.8M	$2.33B	$662.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-04-30	$1.27B	-$108.1K	$148.8M	$91.7M	$6.02B	$1.41B

3. ESTC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ESTC compare to NTSK and PCOR in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTC?

Where is ESTC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESTC last traded at $91.34 (-6.11% on volume of 2,430,962 shares), positioning the stock -2.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($93.35) and +34.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.69). Across its 52-week range of $42.05 to $108.00, ESTC sits at the 74.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($82.39 to $100.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: ESTC RQD Cockpit ESTC 12M Forecast ESTC Earnings & Move ESTC Dividends & DRIP ESTC Insiders & 13F ESTC Whale Options ESTC Profit Sankey ESTC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ESTC — Elastic N.V.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $91.34 (-6.11% 1D, market capitalization $10.31B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.0%, gross margin of 76.1%, operating margin of -1.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.94%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.19x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.38, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.87x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $1.74B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) reported $1.74B in annual revenue (up from $1.48B in FY2024, +17.3% YoY) and $367.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.27B revenue, -$108.1K net income) through FY2025, ESTC scaled operating cash flow to $326.9M and free cash flow to $321.8M, backed by $2.44B in total assets against $741.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $42.05 – $108.00 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 29.8x trailing P/E against -1.9% operating margins and a 1.19x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software classification and the beta of 1.19 per the market data.

Key Question #1: Can ESTC sustain or expand its -1.9% operating margin and -3.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.74B and free cash flow of $321.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $741.3M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ESTC's 25.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.19x)?

ESTC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Elastic N.V. (ESTC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ESTC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Elastic Stock: The Next AI Software Winner (NYSE:ESTC)

Seeking Alpha report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Monness upgrades Elastic stock rating on AI positioning and new metrics

Investing.com report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Elastic N.V. Estimates – NYSE:ESTC

TradingView report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Elastic NV (ESTC) Stock Up 3.3% and Still Undervalued -- GF Scor

GuruFocus report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 2d ago

Elastic (NYSE:ESTC) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 2d ago

Insider Selling: Steven Schuurman Unloads $135.19M Of Elastic Stock - Elastic (NYSE:ESTC)

Benzinga report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESTC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $91.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESTC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $119.65 (+23.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (18/20 whale pillar) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.38, Piotroski F 8/9) support the stock

The street is overcomplicating Elastic N.V. (ESTC). Institutional accumulation (18/20 whale pillar) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.38, Piotroski F 8/9) support the stock despite negative ROIC.. With an RQD score of 62/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $105.06.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $97.28 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $76.85 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $97.28

Negative ROIC of -3% and operating income that stayed negative across FY 2023–FY 2025 leave the business without a demonstrated return

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ESTC above $97.28. Negative ROIC of -3% and operating income that stayed negative across FY 2023–FY 2025 leave the business without a demonstrated return on invested capital, while the stock trades at $103.3 near the top of its $42.05–$108 range.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (2.94%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $108.00.