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Why ESTC Stock dropped -6.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$91.34 -6.11% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.16

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.31B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ESTC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $91.34 (-6.11% 1D, market cap $10.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, ESTC ranks #179 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESTC compare to NTSK and PCOR in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ESTC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.8x, gross margin of 76.1%, and ROIC of -3.0%. By comparison, NTSK (Netskope Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $9.93B) and PCOR (Procore Technologies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.2%, cap $9.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ESTC leads on earnings multiple (29.8x) while ESTC leads on capital efficiency (-3.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTC?
▼

Per ESTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001707753), Elastic N.V. generated $1.74B in revenue (+17.3% YoY), $367.8M in net income, and $321.8M in free cash flow against $2.44B in total assets and $741.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.16 (-1.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 18.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$113 Bull$93 Base$73 Bear
📬 FREE ESTC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESTC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ESTC SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.38 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$92.06+7.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$98.81+7.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$106.58-14.3% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$91.34+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ESTC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, ESTC faces multiple-compression risk if 29.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($93.35) or 200D SMA ($67.69) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($92.98) toward Bear Floor ($72.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESTC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ESTC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ESTC Stock dropped -6.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) dropped -6.11% to $91.34, trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($42.05 – $108). Solid 76.1% gross margin (-3% return on capital), mixed timing at 30x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($42.05 – $108) with RSI-14 at 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.8% around $91.34 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 76.1% gross margin and $321.8M annual free cash flow.
Live ESTC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRETradingView • 1d ago
Elastic N.V. Estimates – NYSE:ESTC

TradingView report covering Elastic N.V. (ESTC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ESTC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ESTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +80.30%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $103.3H $103.3L $91.34C $91.34VOL 1.49M
RES: $107.4SUP: $69.26SMA50: $93.35SMA200: $67.69
$112.2$94.70$77.18$59.65$42.12RES $107.4SUP $69.26$91.342026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESTC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ESTC Butterfly Map → + Track ESTC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
23.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESTC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESTC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESTC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESTC)

Technology Rank #179 of 715 ⚔️ NTSK vs ESTC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ESTC vs. NTSK, PCOR, FIG, FROG)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) ranks #179 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #147 by equity capitalization ($10.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ESTC leads on earnings valuation at 29.8x trailing P/E, while ESTC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -3.0% ROIC and 76.1% gross margin. PCOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with ESTC at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ESTC ACTIVE
Elastic N.V.
C 62/100 29.8x 76.1% -3.0% -6.11% $10.31B Benchmark Subject
NTSK
Netskope Inc.
D 46/100 — 68.1% -35.0% -9.46% $9.93B /ntsk-vs-estc →
PCOR
Procore Technologies Inc.
C+ 68/100 — 79.5% -8.2% +1.94% $9.33B /pcor-vs-estc →
FIG
Figma Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 82.4% -35.0% +2.54% $11.54B /fig-vs-estc →
FROG
JFrog Ltd.
C 64/100 — 76.8% -7.2% -9.83% $11.64B /frog-vs-estc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001707753 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.74B (+17.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.48B , and +37.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $367.8M, operating cash flow of $326.9M, and free cash flow of $321.8M (+22.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESTC closed FY2025 with $2.44B in total assets against $741.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.38, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-04-30 $1.74B $367.8M $326.9M $321.8M $2.44B $741.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-04-30 $1.48B $367.8K $266.2M $261.8M $2.33B $662.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-04-30 $1.27B -$108.1K $148.8M $91.7M $6.02B $1.41B

3. ESTC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $91.34 (-6.11% 1D, market cap $10.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, ESTC ranks #179 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ESTC compare to NTSK and PCOR in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ESTC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.8x, gross margin of 76.1%, and ROIC of -3.0%. By comparison, NTSK (Netskope Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $9.93B) and PCOR (Procore Technologies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.2%, cap $9.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ESTC leads on earnings multiple (29.8x) while ESTC leads on capital efficiency (-3.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTC?

Per ESTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001707753), Elastic N.V. generated $1.74B in revenue (+17.3% YoY), $367.8M in net income, and $321.8M in free cash flow against $2.44B in total assets and $741.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESTC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESTC last traded at $91.34 (-6.11% on volume of 2,430,962 shares), positioning the stock -2.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($93.35) and +34.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.69). Across its 52-week range of $42.05 to $108.00, ESTC sits at the 74.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($82.39 to $100.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: ESTC RQD Cockpit ESTC 12M Forecast ESTC Earnings & Move ESTC Dividends & DRIP ESTC Insiders & 13F ESTC Whale Options ESTC Profit Sankey ESTC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ESTC — Elastic N.V.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $91.34 (-6.11% 1D, market capitalization $10.31B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.0%, gross margin of 76.1%, operating margin of -1.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.94%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.19x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.38, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.87x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $1.74B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) reported $1.74B in annual revenue (up from $1.48B in FY2024, +17.3% YoY) and $367.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.27B revenue, -$108.1K net income) through FY2025, ESTC scaled operating cash flow to $326.9M and free cash flow to $321.8M, backed by $2.44B in total assets against $741.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $42.05 – $108.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 29.8x trailing P/E against -1.9% operating margins and a 1.19x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software classification and the beta of 1.19 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ESTC sustain or expand its -1.9% operating margin and -3.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.74B and free cash flow of $321.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $741.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ESTC's 25.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.19x)?

ESTC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Elastic N.V. (ESTC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ESTC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESTC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $91.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESTC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ESTC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $119.65 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (18/20 whale pillar) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.38, Piotroski F 8/9) support the stock

The street is overcomplicating Elastic N.V. (ESTC). Institutional accumulation (18/20 whale pillar) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.38, Piotroski F 8/9) support the stock despite negative ROIC.. With an RQD score of 62/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $105.06.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $97.28 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $76.85 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $97.28

Negative ROIC of -3% and operating income that stayed negative across FY 2023–FY 2025 leave the business without a demonstrated return

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ESTC above $97.28. Negative ROIC of -3% and operating income that stayed negative across FY 2023–FY 2025 leave the business without a demonstrated return on invested capital, while the stock trades at $103.3 near the top of its $42.05–$108 range.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (2.94%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $108.00.

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