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Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$45.33 +1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.36

Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.10B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FSBC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Five Star Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSBC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $45.33 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $1.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FSBC ranks #139 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FSBC compare to UVSP and NBN in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FSBC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, UVSP (Univest Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.09B) and NBN (Northeast Bank) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVSP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while FSBC leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBC?
▼

Per FSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001275168), Five Star Bancorp generated $2.00B in revenue (+17.3% YoY), $61.6M in net income, and $71.4M in free cash flow against $4.75B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.37 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 3.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$56 Bull$48 Base$37 Bear
📬 FREE FSBC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FSBC SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.6% FCF Margin ($71.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.9) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$42.72+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$43.24+5.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$45.46-0.3% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$45.33+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, FSBC faces multiple-compression risk if 18.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($44.40) or 200D SMA ($42.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.57) toward Bear Floor ($37.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FSBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FSBC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$71.4M (3.6% FCF Margin)
Revenue$2.00BGross Profit $1.04B (52%)Cost of Sales $958.6MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $1.04BNet Profit$61.6M (3.1%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $214.8M
FY24
Rev $1.70B
FY25
Rev $2.00B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$2.00B52%0%$61.6M$71.4M13.8%
FY 2024$1.70B52%0%$45.7M$51.2M13.8%
FY 2023$214.8M46.7%0%$47.7M$38.9M13.8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FSBC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FSBC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FSBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.06%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $45.76H $45.76L $44.92C $45.33VOL 176.5K
RES: $46.55SUP: $39.81SMA50: $44.40SMA200: $42.88
$51.28$47.05$42.83$38.60$34.38RES $46.55SUP $39.81$45.332026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FSBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FSBC Butterfly Map → + Track FSBC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSBC)

Financials Rank #139 of 1097 ⚔️ UVSP vs FSBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSBC vs. UVSP, NBN, HBNC, CCNE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) ranks #139 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #530 by equity capitalization ($1.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVSP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while FSBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FSBC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FSBC ACTIVE
Five Star Bancorp
C+ 69/100 18.2x — 13.8% +1.48% $1.10B Benchmark Subject
UVSP
Univest Financial Corporation
C 64/100 12.0x — 9.6% +4.26% $1.09B /uvsp-vs-fsbc →
NBN
Northeast Bank
D 51/100 — — — +4.96% $1.12B /nbn-vs-fsbc →
HBNC
Horizon Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — -21.9% +2.46% $1.06B /hbnc-vs-fsbc →
CCNE
CNB Financial Corporation
C 65/100 16.0x — 7.6% +3.10% $1.05B /ccne-vs-fsbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001275168 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.00B (+17.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.70B , and +829.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $61.6M, operating cash flow of $72.6M, and free cash flow of $71.4M (+39.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSBC closed FY2025 with $4.75B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.00B $61.6M $72.6M $71.4M $4.75B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.70B $45.7M $51.8M $51.2M $4.05B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $214.8M $47.7M $38.9M $38.9M — —

3. FSBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Five Star Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSBC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $45.33 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $1.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FSBC ranks #139 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FSBC compare to UVSP and NBN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FSBC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, UVSP (Univest Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.09B) and NBN (Northeast Bank) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVSP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while FSBC leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBC?

Per FSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001275168), Five Star Bancorp generated $2.00B in revenue (+17.3% YoY), $61.6M in net income, and $71.4M in free cash flow against $4.75B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FSBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FSBC last traded at $45.33 (+1.48% on volume of 129,084 shares), positioning the stock +2.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($44.40) and +5.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.88). Across its 52-week range of $32.20 to $50.26, FSBC sits at the 72.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($43.29 to $47.37).

Direct Sub-Reports: FSBC RQD Cockpit FSBC 12M Forecast FSBC Earnings & Move FSBC Dividends & DRIP FSBC Insiders & 13F FSBC Whale Options FSBC Profit Sankey FSBC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FSBC — Five Star Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $45.33 (+1.48% 1D, market capitalization $1.10B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.36%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.10B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8% (free cash flow yield of 6.36%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) reported $2.00B in annual revenue (up from $1.70B in FY2024, +17.3% YoY) and $61.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($214.8M revenue, $47.7M net income) through FY2025, FSBC scaled operating cash flow to $72.6M and free cash flow to $71.4M, backed by $4.75B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.20 – $50.26 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only cross-check available is the lock-up expiry on 21-OCT-2026 covering 21,376,153 shares, which could add float and create supply pressure, but the source does not quantify the effect on price.

  • Key Question #1: Can FSBC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.00B and free cash flow of $71.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FSBC's 16.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FSBC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FSBC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FSBC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FSBC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FSBC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $54.35 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income rose from $45.7M in FY 2024 to $61.6M in FY 2025 while reported FCF climbed to $71.4M, supporting the RQD cash-engine and in

Net income rose from $45.7M in FY 2024 to $61.6M in FY 2025 while reported FCF climbed to $71.4M, supporting the RQD cash-engine and insider-conviction pillars.. When you look under the hood at FSBC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 13.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $50.26. My 12M target is $54.35.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $44.92 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.14 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $44.92

Credit scrutiny is flagged in recent Q3 coverage and a 21,376,153-share lock-up ends 21-OCT-2026, while the stock trades at 18.2x trail

Credit scrutiny is flagged in recent Q3 coverage and a 21,376,153-share lock-up ends 21-OCT-2026, while the stock trades at 18.2x trailing earnings with only 12 of 20 macro-regime points.. Look at the math on FSBC: paying 18.2x trailing P/E for 13.8% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Major Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $39.53 before getting long.

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