Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$2.15 -0.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.14

Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $66.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GEG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Great Elm Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GEG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $2.15 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $66.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, GEG ranks #470 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GEG compare to ROC and SPAI in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), GEG carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of 93.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ROC (Rank One Computing Corporation) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $67.2M) and SPAI (Safe Pro Group Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $65.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEG leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while MCHX leads on capital efficiency (-22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEG?
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Per GEG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001831096), Great Elm Group Inc. generated $16.3M in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $12.9M in net income, and -$9.0M in free cash flow against $135.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.14 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (4)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.4% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE GEG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GEG SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$2.15+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$2.15+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$2.16-0.5% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$2.15-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GEG currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.16) and Max Pain ($2.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEG• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GEG Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 28, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$0.04 Expected Swing
$2.11 (-1.8%)Spot $2.15$2.19 (+1.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GEG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 41/100

Trailing EPS: $0.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: -8.5%

Model Bullish Setup (41/100)Model Risk Weight (59/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-06-30$16.3M$12.9M-$9.0M93.4%
FY 20242024-06-30$17.8M-$1.4M-$15.6M69%
FY 20232023-06-30$8.7M$27.7M-$2.4M92%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GEG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GEG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.37%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $2.16H $2.16L $2.15C $2.15VOL 2.6K
RES: $2.15SUP: $2.14SMA50: $2.16SMA200: $2.14
$2.89$2.65$2.41$2.17$1.94RES $2.15SUP $2.14$2.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GEG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEG)

Technology Rank #470 of 714 ⚔️ ROC vs GEG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (GEG vs. ROC, SPAI, MCHX, AISP)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) ranks #470 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #543 by equity capitalization ($66.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEG leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while MCHX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -22.4% ROIC and 63.2% gross margin. GEG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GEG ACTIVE
Great Elm Group Inc.
D- 41/100 5.2x 93.4% -35.0% -0.46% $66.5M Benchmark Subject
ROC
Rank One Computing Corporation
E 27/100 — 77.2% -35.0% -5.88% $67.2M /roc-vs-geg →
SPAI
Safe Pro Group Inc.
E 27/100 — 33.3% -35.0% -5.60% $65.2M /spai-vs-geg →
MCHX
Marchex Inc. (Class B)
E 30/100 — 63.2% -22.4% -3.36% $63.8M /mchx-vs-geg →
AISP
Airship AI Holdings Inc. (Class A)
E 16/100 — — -35.0% -7.56% $71.6M /aisp-vs-geg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001831096

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) reported GAAP revenue of $16.3M (-8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.8M , and +88.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.9M, operating cash flow of -$9.0M, and free cash flow of -$9.0M (+42.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEG closed FY2025 with $135.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $16.3M $12.9M -$9.0M -$9.0M $135.5M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $17.8M -$1.4M -$15.6M -$15.6M $138.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $8.7M $27.7M -$2.4M -$2.4M — —

3. GEG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GEG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Great Elm Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GEG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $2.15 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $66.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, GEG ranks #470 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GEG compare to ROC and SPAI in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), GEG carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of 93.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ROC (Rank One Computing Corporation) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $67.2M) and SPAI (Safe Pro Group Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $65.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEG leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while MCHX leads on capital efficiency (-22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEG?

Per GEG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001831096), Great Elm Group Inc. generated $16.3M in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $12.9M in net income, and -$9.0M in free cash flow against $135.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GEG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GEG last traded at $2.15 (-0.46% on volume of 2,578 shares), positioning the stock -0.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.16) and +0.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.14). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $2.83, GEG sits at the 34.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($2.11 to $2.19).

GEG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is GEG's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 28, 2026.

How much is GEG stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±1.8% event move for GEG, spanning a range between $2.11 and $2.19.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GEG — Great Elm Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:45:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GEG scores 41 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4 / 20): The weakest pillar. The rating cites ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -13.48%. For an investor, this indicates the business is currently not converting capital into cash returns, so valuation rests on expectations of a future turnaround rather than present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow (8 / 20): Scored for institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is low, so the source data does not support a strong institutional-demand narrative.
  • Insider Conviction (7 / 20): Scored on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score means insider and congressional activity does not provide a strong confidence signal.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9 / 20): Reflects beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies market-level sensitivity; the score suggests the stock's regime positioning is modest rather than favorable.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): The strongest pillar, citing Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is a mid-range result; the balance sheet is not the primary weakness, but Piotroski F of 4/9 indicates only moderate financial-quality signals.

Taken together, the rating characterizes GEG as weak on cash generation and flow, with a middling balance sheet. The upside case relies on a low headline valuation (P/E TTM of 5.2) and a balance sheet that is not rated as distressed; the downside case is the negative ROIC and FCF yield, which the rating treats as the dominant issue. Valuation multiples alone do not offset the cash-generation weakness in this framework.

Business

Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector, Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, per the profile section. The profile describes the company with a market capitalization of $0.1B. Source data does not specify the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond its sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$16.3M$-8.0M$12.9MN/A$-9.0M$51.2MN/A
FY 2024$17.8M$-7.8M$-1.4MN/A$-15.6M$44.3MN/A
FY 2023$8.7M$-11.2M$27.7MN/A$-2.4MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income was negative in each of the three reported periods, while reported net income was positive in FY 2025 and FY 2023 and negative in FY 2024. Per the market data section, operating margin is -49.1%, gross margin is 93.4%, and net margin is 68%. ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash is reported at $51.2M for FY 2025, up from $44.3M for FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Board composition: A Stock Titan report states the board is set to shrink from eight to seven at the annual meeting (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
  • Director departure: TradingView and Investing.com Canada reports state director Eric Scheyer will not seek re-election or will step down after the annual meeting (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
  • Price action: A MarketBeat report headlined a 0.5% decline (RISK WATCH, RED), followed by a later MarketBeat report of a 0.5% climb (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW). Per the market data, the day's change is 0.47%.
  • Market coverage: A Yahoo Finance item referencing institutional positioning and fundamental catalysts (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW), whose headline names a different ticker (GECC), should be treated with caution.
  • Proprietary signals: The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no proprietary signals and no butterfly links.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means no supply-chain ripple effects can be verified here.

Open Questions

  • What drove the FY 2025 net income of $12.9M given operating income of $-8.0M, and is it recurring?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for each period, and what is the share count?
  • What are GEG's debt levels, since the debt field is N/A for all periods while Debt/Equity is cited at 0.5?
  • Does the EV/EBITDA gap reflect missing data, and what does enterprise value look like?
  • What is the business model behind the 93.4% gross margin given the negative operating margin?

GEG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GEG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GEG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.15?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GEG 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GEG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.90 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GEG (D- • RQD 41/100) a Buy at $2.16?

Welcome to the GEG (Great Elm Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 41/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.62 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $2.16

Pump the brakes on GEG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GEG, but look at what you are paying: 5.2x trailing P/E with 93.4% gross margins. Unless Great Elm Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.66 (+23.1%)
Spot @ $2.16

GEG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GEG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.16 (52-wk range $1.80 - $2.83), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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