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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HCMA / earnings
CVEO (44) PUSA (26) BALY (25) MSC (28) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$10.32 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.30

HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $400.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HCMA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HCMA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (NASDAQ: HCMA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $10.32 (0.00% 1D, market cap $400.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HCMA ranks #375 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HCMA compare to CVEO and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HCMA carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CVEO (Civeo Corporation (Canada)) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.9%, cap $371.8M) and PUSA (Powerus Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $285.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCMA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MSC leads on capital efficiency (2.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCMA?
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Per HCMA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002069856), HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share generated $108.5M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $258.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.30 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 10.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$12 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE HCMA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCMA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HCMA SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$10.31-0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$10.29+0% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$10.29+0.3% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$10.32+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HCMA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, HCMA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.30) or 200D SMA ($10.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.32) toward Bear Floor ($8.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCMA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HCMA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$0.19 Expected Swing
$10.13 (-1.8%)Spot $10.32$10.51 (+1.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HCMA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$108.5M$0$052%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HCMA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HCMA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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HCMA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.67%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.32H $10.32L $10.32C $10.32VOL 353.5K
RES: $10.32SUP: $10.28SMA50: $10.30SMA200: $10.23
$10.34$10.28$10.22$10.16$10.10RES $10.32SUP $10.28$10.322026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HCMA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HCMA Butterfly Map → + Track HCMA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCMA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCMA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCMA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCMA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #375 of 1009 ⚔️ CVEO vs HCMA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HCMA vs. CVEO, PUSA, BALY, MSC)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) ranks #375 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #610 by equity capitalization ($400.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCMA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MSC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.3% ROIC and — gross margin. HCMA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HCMA ACTIVE
HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share
D+ 58/100 — — — 0.00% $400.5M Benchmark Subject
CVEO
Civeo Corporation (Canada)
D 44/100 — 23.7% 0.9% +0.39% $371.8M /cveo-vs-hcma →
PUSA
Powerus Corporation
E 26/100 — — -22.8% -4.44% $285.3M /pusa-vs-hcma →
BALY
Bally's Corporation
E 25/100 — — -4.7% 0.00% $682.3M /baly-vs-hcma →
MSC
Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A)
E 28/100 — — 2.3% +25.59% $165.3M /msc-vs-hcma →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002069856 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) reported GAAP revenue of $108.5M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, HCMA closed FY2025 with $258.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $108.5M $0 — — $258.4M —

3. HCMA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HCMA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (NASDAQ: HCMA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $10.32 (0.00% 1D, market cap $400.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HCMA ranks #375 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HCMA compare to CVEO and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HCMA carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CVEO (Civeo Corporation (Canada)) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.9%, cap $371.8M) and PUSA (Powerus Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $285.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCMA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MSC leads on capital efficiency (2.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCMA?

Per HCMA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002069856), HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share generated $108.5M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $258.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HCMA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HCMA last traded at $10.32 (0.00% on volume of 18,970 shares), positioning the stock +0.19% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.30) and +0.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.23). Across its 52-week range of $10.03 to $10.33, HCMA sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($10.13 to $10.51).

Direct Sub-Reports: HCMA RQD Cockpit HCMA 12M Forecast HCMA Earnings & Move HCMA Dividends & DRIP HCMA Insiders & 13F HCMA Whale Options HCMA Profit Sankey HCMA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HCMA — HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.32 (0.00% 1D, market capitalization $400.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) is listed on NASDAQ and classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Hotels/Resorts industry,.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) reported $108.5M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $258.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.03 – $10.33 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Hotels/Resorts (Consumer Discretionary), HCMA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can HCMA sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $108.5M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HCMA's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HCMA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share (HCMA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HCMA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HCMA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HCMA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HCMA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.49 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 on an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5.

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 on an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5.. When you look under the hood at HCMA, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 0.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $10.33. My 12M target is $12.49.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Hotels/Resorts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.36 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $10.32

The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 10 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, and reported revenue is $0.0M.

Careful chasing HCMA at $10.32. The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 10 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, and reported revenue is $0.0M.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $8.36 on multiple compression.

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