ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / HG / forecast
SPNT (63) AGO (54) NMIH (73) SKWD (74) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$36.28 +3.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.44

Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (NYSE: HG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $36.28 (+3.48% 1D, market cap $2.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HG ranks #521 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HG compare to SPNT and AGO in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HG carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B) and AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $3.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SPNT leads on capital efficiency (18.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HG?
▼

Per HG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001593275), Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) generated $2.91B in revenue (+24.7% YoY), $0 in net income, and $842.4M in free cash flow against $9.57B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.44 (+0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 29% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (12)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
$42 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE HG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HG SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 29% FCF Margin ($842.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$34.92+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$36.51-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$35.48+2.3% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$36.28-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, HG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.90) or 200D SMA ($32.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.79) toward Bear Floor ($27.92).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $36.28: 275.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $27.92
$7,696
$-2,304 (-23.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $35.79
$9,865
$-135 (-1.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $42.23
$11,640
+$1,640 (+16.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.89%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $34.43H $36.28L $34.43C $36.28VOL 588.6K
RES: $37.25SUP: $33.84SMA50: $34.90SMA200: $32.43
$38.05$34.99$31.93$28.87$25.81RES $37.25SUP $33.84$36.282026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HG Butterfly Map → + Track HG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HG)

Financials Rank #521 of 1097 ⚔️ SPNT vs HG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HG vs. SPNT, AGO, NMIH, SKWD)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) ranks #521 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #371 by equity capitalization ($2.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SPNT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SKWD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with HG at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HG ACTIVE
Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)
D+ 55/100 — — — +3.48% $2.92B Benchmark Subject
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
C 63/100 6.6x — 18.6% +0.50% $3.01B /spnt-vs-hg →
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
D+ 54/100 6.2x — 8.9% +2.06% $3.10B /ago-vs-hg →
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 8.4x — 15.0% +1.76% $3.21B /nmih-vs-hg →
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 15.3x — 16.8% +3.54% $2.62B /skwd-vs-hg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001593275 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.91B (+24.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.33B , and +84.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $842.4M, and free cash flow of $842.4M (+10.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HG closed FY2025 with $9.57B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.91B $0 $842.4M $842.4M $9.57B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.33B $0 $759.3M $759.3M $7.80B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.57B $0 $283.2M $283.2M — —

3. HG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (NYSE: HG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $36.28 (+3.48% 1D, market cap $2.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HG ranks #521 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HG compare to SPNT and AGO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HG carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B) and AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $3.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SPNT leads on capital efficiency (18.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HG?

Per HG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001593275), Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) generated $2.91B in revenue (+24.7% YoY), $0 in net income, and $842.4M in free cash flow against $9.57B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HG last traded at $36.28 (+3.48% on volume of 475,724 shares), positioning the stock +3.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.90) and +11.87% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.43). Across its 52-week range of $22.66 to $37.31, HG sits at the 93.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($34.32 to $38.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: HG RQD Cockpit HG 12M Forecast HG Earnings & Move HG Dividends & DRIP HG Insiders & 13F HG Whale Options HG Profit Sankey HG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HG — Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $36.28 (+3.48% 1D, market capitalization $2.92B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Property-Casualty Insurers industry,. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model. — for detailed product or customer information.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) reported $2.91B in annual revenue (up from $2.33B in FY2024, +24.7% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.57B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, HG scaled operating cash flow to $842.4M and free cash flow to $842.4M, backed by $9.57B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.66 – $37.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no upstream or downstream dependencies (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). No sector correlations or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. — for supply-chain dependency analysis.

  • Key Question #1: Can HG sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.91B and free cash flow of $842.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HG's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.12 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported revenue grew from $1.57B in FY 2023 to $2.91B in FY 2025, with FCF rising to $842.4M.

The street is overcomplicating Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B) (HG). Reported revenue grew from $1.57B in FY 2023 to $2.91B in FY 2025, with FCF rising to $842.4M.. With an RQD score of 55/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $37.86.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 55/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $35.06 and keeping dry powder in case we test $32.61.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.10 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $35.06

The RQD rating scores HG at 52 (D+, Roarable Sell) with ROIC and FCF yield both at 0% and insider conviction at 7/20.

The RQD rating scores HG at 52 (D+, Roarable Sell) with ROIC and FCF yield both at 0% and insider conviction at 7/20.. Look at the math on HG: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Property-Casualty Insurers demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $30.85 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE