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UHT (61) ADAM (51) BDN (46) TRTX (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$5.31 -0.56% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.29

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $582.6M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IVR Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IVR compare to UHT and ADAM in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?
β–Ό

Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.29 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 5.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510046
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D Β· Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.5% Base Target
$10 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE IVR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY IVR SCORES 46/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$5.56-2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$5.42+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$5.45-2.6% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$5.31-6.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (54) β†’ D (46)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While IVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.16) and Max Pain ($5.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.97.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IVRβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œIVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.2K
Yr 3
$13.0K
Yr 4
$13.9K
Yr 5
$14.8K
Yr 6
$15.8K
Yr 7
$16.9K
Yr 8
$18.1K
Yr 9
$19.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IVR)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of IVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.87%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $5.31H $5.34L $5.31C $5.31VOL 4.79M
RES: $8.11SUP: $4.89SMA50: $6.16SMA200: $7.61
$8.48$7.60$6.71$5.83$4.95RES $8.11SUP $4.89$5.312026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ IVR Butterfly Map β†’ + Track IVR β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IVR today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IVR)

Financials Rank #758 of 1097 βš”οΈ UHT vs IVR Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (IVR vs. UHT, ADAM, BDN, TRTX)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) ranks #758 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #668 by equity capitalization ($582.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with IVR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IVR ACTIVE
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC
D 46/100 5.9x β€” 12.7% -0.56% $582.6M Benchmark Subject
UHT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust
C- 61/100 29.9x β€” 18.8% -1.78% $539.1M /uht-vs-ivr β†’
ADAM
Adamas Trust Inc.
D 51/100 4.4x β€” 8.9% -3.37% $535.5M /adam-vs-ivr β†’
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
D 46/100 β€” β€” 2.8% -0.98% $518.6M /bdn-vs-ivr β†’
TRTX
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.
D+ 54/100 8.1x β€” 5.6% -0.29% $517.9M /trtx-vs-ivr β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001437071 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.72B (+13.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.39B , and +201.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $101.3M, operating cash flow of $157.1M, and free cash flow of $157.1M (-14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, IVR closed FY2025 with $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.72B $101.3M $157.1M $157.1M $6.48B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.39B $59.9M $183.2M $183.2M $5.69B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $903.6M -$15.9M $237.8M $237.8M β€” β€”

3. IVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IVR compare to UHT and ADAM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?

Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IVR last traded at $5.31 (-0.56% on volume of 5,633,164 shares), positioning the stock -13.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.16) and -30.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.61). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $9.50, IVR sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.3% ($4.98 to $5.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: IVR RQD Cockpit IVR 12M Forecast IVR Earnings & Move IVR Dividends & DRIP IVR Insiders & 13F IVR Whale Options IVR Profit Sankey IVR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 46/100 (D) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IVR β€” INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market capitalization $582.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.7%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $0.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported $2.72B in annual revenue (up from $2.39B in FY2024, +13.9% YoY) and $101.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($903.6M revenue, -$15.9M net income) through FY2025, IVR scaled operating cash flow to $157.1M and free cash flow to $157.1M, backed by $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D β€’ RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.22 – $9.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: β€” Sector correlation data: β€” Investors should note that the graph provides no basis for mapping 2nd-order bottlenecks; any ripple analysis would require data not contained in the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can IVR sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 12.7% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.72B and free cash flow of $157.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IVR's 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

IVR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to IVR Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IVR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.31?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IVR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IVR:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.90 (+29.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Trades at 5.9x TTM earnings with a 12.7% ROIC and reported net income rising from -$15.9M in FY 2023 to $101.3M in FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on IVR here at $5.31: Trades at 5.9x TTM earnings with a 12.7% ROIC and reported net income rising from -$15.9M in FY 2023 to $101.3M in FY 2025.. Compare IVR's 0.0% operating margin and 12.7% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $5.04 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $5.31 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.94.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.04 (-23.9%)
Spot @ $5.31

Scores 46 / D with weak institutional flow (4 / 20) and macro regime fit (5 / 20), a 0% dividend yield, and a 0% FCF yield.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short IVR above $5.31. Scores 46 / D with weak institutional flow (4 / 20) and macro regime fit (5 / 20), a 0% dividend yield, and a 0% FCF yield.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $9.50.

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