INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).
Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
While IVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.16) and Max Pain ($5.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.97.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) slipped -0.56% to $5.31, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($5.22 – $9.5). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
StockInvest.us report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketWatch report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) posted a negative 11.6% economic return as book value fell 16.1%, while boosting specified pool allocation to 83% and weighing dividend sustainability.
The Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +13.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IVR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) ranks #758 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #668 by equity capitalization ($582.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with IVR at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR
ACTIVE
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC | D | 46/100 | 5.9x | — | 12.7% | -0.56% | $582.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust | C- | 61/100 | 29.9x | — | 18.8% | -1.78% | $539.1M | /uht-vs-ivr → |
| ADAM Adamas Trust Inc. | D | 51/100 | 4.4x | — | 8.9% | -3.37% | $535.5M | /adam-vs-ivr → |
| BDN Brandywine Realty Trust | D | 46/100 | — | — | 2.8% | -0.98% | $518.6M | /bdn-vs-ivr → |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. | D+ | 54/100 | 8.1x | — | 5.6% | -0.29% | $517.9M | /trtx-vs-ivr → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.72B (+13.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.39B , and +201.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $101.3M, operating cash flow of $157.1M, and free cash flow of $157.1M (-14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, IVR closed FY2025 with $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.72B | $101.3M | $157.1M | $157.1M | $6.48B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.39B | $59.9M | $183.2M | $183.2M | $5.69B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $903.6M | -$15.9M | $237.8M | $237.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).
Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
IVR last traded at $5.31 (-0.56% on volume of 5,633,164 shares), positioning the stock -13.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.16) and -30.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.61). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $9.50, IVR sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($4.98 to $5.64).
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market capitalization $582.6M).
Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $0.6B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported $2.72B in annual revenue (up from $2.39B in FY2024, +13.9% YoY) and $101.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($903.6M revenue, -$15.9M net income) through FY2025, IVR scaled operating cash flow to $157.1M and free cash flow to $157.1M, backed by $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlation data: — Investors should note that the graph provides no basis for mapping 2nd-order bottlenecks; any ripple analysis would require data not contained in the sources.
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Yahoo Finance report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
StockInvest.us report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketWatch report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Here is why I am bullish on IVR here at $5.31: Trades at 5.9x TTM earnings with a 12.7% ROIC and reported net income rising from -$15.9M in FY 2023 to $101.3M in FY 2025.. Compare IVR's 0.0% operating margin and 12.7% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $5.04 are getting bought.
@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $5.31 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.94.
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short IVR above $5.31. Scores 46 / D with weak institutional flow (4 / 20) and macro regime fit (5 / 20), a 0% dividend yield, and a 0% FCF yield.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $9.50.
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