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Stock Ratings / Financials / IVR / forecast
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INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.31 -0.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.29

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $582.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IVR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IVR compare to UHT and ADAM in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?
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Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.29 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 5.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.5% Base Target
$10 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE IVR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IVR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$5.56-2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$5.42+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$5.45-2.6% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$5.31-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.16) and Max Pain ($5.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IVR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.31: 1883.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.92
$7,382
$-2,618 (-26.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.02
$9,454
$-546 (-5.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.97
$18,776
+$8,776 (+87.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IVR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.87%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $5.31H $5.34L $5.31C $5.31VOL 4.79M
RES: $8.11SUP: $4.89SMA50: $6.16SMA200: $7.61
$8.48$7.60$6.71$5.83$4.95RES $8.11SUP $4.89$5.312026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IVR Butterfly Map → + Track IVR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IVR)

Financials Rank #758 of 1097 ⚔️ UHT vs IVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (IVR vs. UHT, ADAM, BDN, TRTX)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) ranks #758 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #668 by equity capitalization ($582.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with IVR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IVR ACTIVE
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC
D 46/100 5.9x — 12.7% -0.56% $582.6M Benchmark Subject
UHT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust
C- 61/100 29.9x — 18.8% -1.78% $539.1M /uht-vs-ivr →
ADAM
Adamas Trust Inc.
D 51/100 4.4x — 8.9% -3.37% $535.5M /adam-vs-ivr →
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
D 46/100 — — 2.8% -0.98% $518.6M /bdn-vs-ivr →
TRTX
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.
D+ 54/100 8.1x — 5.6% -0.29% $517.9M /trtx-vs-ivr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001437071 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.72B (+13.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.39B , and +201.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $101.3M, operating cash flow of $157.1M, and free cash flow of $157.1M (-14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, IVR closed FY2025 with $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.72B $101.3M $157.1M $157.1M $6.48B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.39B $59.9M $183.2M $183.2M $5.69B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $903.6M -$15.9M $237.8M $237.8M — —

3. IVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $582.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #758 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IVR compare to UHT and ADAM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?

Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $2.72B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IVR last traded at $5.31 (-0.56% on volume of 5,633,164 shares), positioning the stock -13.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.16) and -30.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.61). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $9.50, IVR sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($4.98 to $5.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: IVR RQD Cockpit IVR 12M Forecast IVR Earnings & Move IVR Dividends & DRIP IVR Insiders & 13F IVR Whale Options IVR Profit Sankey IVR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IVR — INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.31 (-0.56% 1D, market capitalization $582.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $0.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported $2.72B in annual revenue (up from $2.39B in FY2024, +13.9% YoY) and $101.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($903.6M revenue, -$15.9M net income) through FY2025, IVR scaled operating cash flow to $157.1M and free cash flow to $157.1M, backed by $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.22 – $9.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlation data: — Investors should note that the graph provides no basis for mapping 2nd-order bottlenecks; any ripple analysis would require data not contained in the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can IVR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.7% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.72B and free cash flow of $157.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IVR's 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

IVR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IVR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IVR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IVR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IVR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.90 (+29.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at 5.9x TTM earnings with a 12.7% ROIC and reported net income rising from -$15.9M in FY 2023 to $101.3M in FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on IVR here at $5.31: Trades at 5.9x TTM earnings with a 12.7% ROIC and reported net income rising from -$15.9M in FY 2023 to $101.3M in FY 2025.. Compare IVR's 0.0% operating margin and 12.7% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $5.04 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $5.31 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.94.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.04 (-23.9%)
Spot @ $5.31

Scores 46 / D with weak institutional flow (4 / 20) and macro regime fit (5 / 20), a 0% dividend yield, and a 0% FCF yield.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short IVR above $5.31. Scores 46 / D with weak institutional flow (4 / 20) and macro regime fit (5 / 20), a 0% dividend yield, and a 0% FCF yield.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $9.50.

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