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John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$23.25 +1.35% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.26

John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $323.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JMSB Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JMSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: JMSB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $23.25 (+1.35% 1D, market cap $323.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JMSB ranks #220 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JMSB compare to COSO and FRAF in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), JMSB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, COSO (CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $327.1M) and FRAF (Franklin Financial Services Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $320.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COSO leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while FRAF leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JMSB?
β–Ό

Per JMSB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001710482), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. generated $979.7M in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $21.2M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $2.33B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.26 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 2.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510066
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$28 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE JMSB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JMSB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY JMSB SCORES 66/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.2% FCF Margin ($22.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$23.01-0.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$22.80+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$23.34-0.4% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$23.25+1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ C+ (66)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JMSB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, JMSB faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.02) or 200D SMA ($21.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.09) toward Bear Floor ($18.79).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JMSBβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œJMSB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (JMSB)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for JMSB.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating JMSB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on JMSB
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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JMSB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.61%β–² ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $23.16H $23.25L $22.94C $23.25VOL 131.1K
RES: $23.97SUP: $22.68SMA50: $23.02SMA200: $21.66
$24.56$23.31$22.05$20.80$19.54RES $23.97SUP $22.68$23.252026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JMSB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ JMSB Butterfly Map β†’ + Track JMSB β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JMSB today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JMSB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JMSB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JMSB)

Financials Rank #220 of 1097 βš”οΈ COSO vs JMSB Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JMSB vs. COSO, FRAF, MVBF, CBNA)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) ranks #220 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #793 by equity capitalization ($323.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COSO leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while FRAF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.1% ROIC and β€” gross margin. COSO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with JMSB at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JMSB ACTIVE
John Marshall Bancorp Inc.
C+ 66/100 15.4x β€” 8.0% +1.35% $323.7M Benchmark Subject
COSO
CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc.
B 73/100 13.2x β€” 9.6% +1.29% $327.1M /coso-vs-jmsb β†’
FRAF
Franklin Financial Services Corporation
B- 70/100 14.9x β€” 12.1% +1.88% $320.0M /fraf-vs-jmsb β†’
MVBF
MVB Financial Corp.
D 45/100 β€” β€” 0.0% +3.10% $330.3M /mvbf-vs-jmsb β†’
CBNA
Chain Bridge Bancorp Inc. (Class A)
D+ 58/100 16.7x β€” 12.0% +1.82% $332.0M /cbna-vs-jmsb β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001710482 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) reported GAAP revenue of $979.7M (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $938.7M , and +1331.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $21.2M, operating cash flow of $22.6M, and free cash flow of $22.0M (+31.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, JMSB closed FY2025 with $2.33B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $979.7M $21.2M $22.6M $22.0M $2.33B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $938.7M $17.1M $17.3M $16.8M $2.23B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $68.4M $5.2M $18.0M $18.0M β€” β€”

3. JMSB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JMSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: JMSB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $23.25 (+1.35% 1D, market cap $323.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JMSB ranks #220 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JMSB compare to COSO and FRAF in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), JMSB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, COSO (CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $327.1M) and FRAF (Franklin Financial Services Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $320.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COSO leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while FRAF leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JMSB?

Per JMSB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001710482), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. generated $979.7M in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $21.2M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $2.33B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JMSB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JMSB last traded at $23.25 (+1.35% on volume of 136,795 shares), positioning the stock +1.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.02) and +7.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.66). Across its 52-week range of $18.60 to $24.26, JMSB sits at the 82.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.2% ($22.27 to $24.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: JMSB RQD Cockpit JMSB 12M Forecast JMSB Earnings & Move JMSB Dividends & DRIP JMSB Insiders & 13F JMSB Whale Options JMSB Profit Sankey JMSB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 66/100 (C+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

JMSB β€” John Marshall Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $23.25 (+1.35% 1D, market capitalization $323.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 6.74%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sector is Financials and industry is Major Banks; the exchange is NASDAQ. The profile identifies John Marshall Bancorp Inc. As a NASDAQ-listed Financials issuer in Major Banks. β€” for detailed business description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) reported $979.7M in annual revenue (up from $938.7M in FY2024, +4.4% YoY) and $21.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($68.4M revenue, $5.2M net income) through FY2025, JMSB scaled operating cash flow to $22.6M and free cash flow to $22.0M, backed by $2.33B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C+ β€’ RQD 66/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.74% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $18.60 – $24.26 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.4x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), JMSB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can JMSB sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 8.0% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $979.7M and free cash flow of $22.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is JMSB's 14.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

JMSB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to JMSB Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JMSB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $23.25?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JMSB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JMSB:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Price Action & Volume Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.61 (+16.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Net income grew from $5.2M in FY 2023 to $21.2M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.3 and the insider-conviction p

Picked up a starter position in JMSB in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $22.94. Net income grew from $5.2M in FY 2023 to $21.2M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.3 and the insider-conviction pillar scores 16/20.. Trading inside a $18.60–$24.26 52-week range with 6.74% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Banks multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $22.94 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.43 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $22.94

Reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in every period and institutional whale-flow scores only 11/20, leaving little independ

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on JMSB: Reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in every period and institutional whale-flow scores only 11/20, leaving little independent confirmation of the earnings trend.. At 15.4x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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