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LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$44.37 +1.44% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.40

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $1.03B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, LGI Homes Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $44.37 (+1.44% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LGIH ranks #898 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LGIH compare to DFH and CCS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), LGIH carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.0x, gross margin of 20.7%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, DFH (Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.2x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $886.3M) and CCS (Century Communities Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGIH?
β–Ό

Per LGIH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580670), LGI Homes Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (-22.6% YoY), $72.6M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $3.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.40 (+0.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (6)SEC (7)Macro (3)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$70 Bull$38 Base$30 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE LGIH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LGIH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY LGIH SCORES 28/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.60 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 1/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy β€’ Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.7) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$45.29-4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$43.10-0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$42.77+3.7% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$44.37-10% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (36) β†’ E (28)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LGIH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While LGIH currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.05) and Max Pain ($46.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $69.56.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LGIHβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œLGIH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
0.6% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $102/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LGIH)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of LGIH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LGIH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.14%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $43.74H $44.37L $43.74C $44.37VOL 262.2K
RES: $45.01SUP: $37.17SMA50: $48.05SMA200: $50.14
$68.15$60.27$52.38$44.49$36.60RES $45.01SUP $37.17$44.372026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LGIH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -22.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LGIH today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LGIH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LGIH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LGIH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #898 of 1009 βš”οΈ DFH vs LGIH Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LGIH vs. DFH, CCS, LEGH, HOV)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) ranks #898 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #504 by equity capitalization ($1.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and β€” gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with LGIH at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LGIH ACTIVE
LGI Homes Inc.
E 28/100 14.0x 20.7% 3.0% +1.44% $1.03B Benchmark Subject
DFH
Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)
D- 38/100 4.2x β€” 15.3% -2.49% $886.3M /dfh-vs-lgih β†’
CCS
Century Communities Inc.
D+ 52/100 10.3x β€” 5.7% -1.81% $1.49B /ccs-vs-lgih β†’
LEGH
Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)
C+ 68/100 16.5x β€” 7.4% +1.49% $698.3M /legh-vs-lgih β†’
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 β€” β€” β€” -2.97% $592.5M /hov-vs-lgih β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001580670 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.71B (-22.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.20B , and -27.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $72.6M, operating cash flow of -$140.0M, and free cash flow of -$140.9M (+3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, LGIH closed FY2025 with $3.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.60, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.71B $72.6M -$140.0M -$140.9M $3.93B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.20B $196.1M -$143.7M -$145.7M $3.76B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.36B $199.2M -$57.0M -$57.0M β€” β€”

3. LGIH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, LGI Homes Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $44.37 (+1.44% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LGIH ranks #898 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LGIH compare to DFH and CCS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), LGIH carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.0x, gross margin of 20.7%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, DFH (Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.2x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $886.3M) and CCS (Century Communities Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGIH?

Per LGIH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580670), LGI Homes Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (-22.6% YoY), $72.6M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $3.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LGIH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LGIH last traded at $44.37 (+1.44% on volume of 262,231 shares), positioning the stock -7.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.05) and -11.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.14). Across its 52-week range of $33.55 to $66.25, LGIH sits at the 33.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.4% ($39.31 to $49.43).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 28/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LGIH β€” LGI Homes Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $44.37 (+1.44% 1D, market capitalization $1.03B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.0%, gross margin of 20.7%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of -13.86%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.60, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

LGI Homes Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Homebuilding industry. Per the market data, the company reports gross margin of 20.7%, operating margin of 4.7%, and net margin of 4.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) reported $1.71B in annual revenue (up from $2.20B in FY2024, -22.6% YoY) and $72.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.36B revenue, $199.2M net income) through FY2025, LGIH scaled operating cash flow to -$140.0M and free cash flow to -$140.9M, backed by $3.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.86% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $33.55 – $66.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 14.0x trailing P/E and 12.6x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Homebuilding (Consumer Discretionary), LGIH carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 20.7%.

  • Key Question #1: Can LGIH sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 3.0% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.71B and free cash flow of -$140.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LGIH's 13.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LGIH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to LGIH Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LGIH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $44.37?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LGIH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LGIH:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $53.24 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Trades at a P/E of 14 TTM and 13 forward with a $93 Citizens price target cited in the news wire.

Long LGIH at $44.37 targeting $53.24. Trades at a P/E of 14 TTM and 13 forward with a $93 Citizens price target cited in the news wire.. Institutional whale score is 6/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $33.55 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” LGIH's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.38 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $44.37

Negative FCF yield of -13.86% and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 contradict the moderate earnings multiple.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on LGIH: Negative FCF yield of -13.86% and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 contradict the moderate earnings multiple.. At 14.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Homebuilding triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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