What is LGIH's 12-month stock price target?

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $41.02 (-13.5% from $47.42), with a bull-case target of $69.56 and a bear-case floor of $32.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LGIH / forecast

DFH (38) CCS (52) LEGH (68) HOV (42) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Where is LGIH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LGIH last traded at $47.42 (+6.87% on volume of 406,622 shares), positioning the stock -1.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.05) and -5.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.14). Across its 52-week range of $33.55 to $66.25, LGIH sits at the 42.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($42.01 to $52.83).

Q: Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LGIH E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 28/100.

$47.42 +6.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.92

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.03B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LGIH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, LGI Homes Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $47.42 (+6.87% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LGIH ranks #900 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LGIH compare to DFH and CCS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), LGIH carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.0x, gross margin of 20.7%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, DFH (Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.2x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $886.3M) and CCS (Century Communities Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGIH?

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Per LGIH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580670), LGI Homes Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (-22.6% YoY), $72.6M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $3.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.92 (+1.05%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LGIH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LGIH SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.60 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.7) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$45.29-4.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$43.10-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$42.77+10.9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$47.42-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LGIH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LGIH currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.05) and Max Pain ($49.79) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $69.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LGIH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LGIH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LGIH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $47.42: 210.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $32.00

$6,748

$-3,252 (-32.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $41.02

$8,650

$-1,350 (-13.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $69.56

$14,669

+$4,669 (+46.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$43	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$65	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$37	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LGIH)

✓Walkthrough of LGIH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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LGIH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.66%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $43.74H $47.42L $43.74C $47.42VOL 262.2K

RES: $44.86SUP: $37.17SMA50: $48.05SMA200: $50.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LGIH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LGIH Butterfly Map → + Track LGIH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -22.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LGIH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LGIH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LGIH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LGIH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #900 of 1011 ⚔️ DFH vs LGIH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LGIH vs. DFH, CCS, LEGH, HOV)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) ranks #900 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #506 by equity capitalization ($1.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with LGIH at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LGIH ACTIVE LGI Homes Inc.	E	28/100	14.0x	20.7%	3.0%	+6.87%	$1.03B	Benchmark Subject
DFH Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	4.2x	—	15.3%	+11.85%	$886.3M	/dfh-vs-lgih →
CCS Century Communities Inc.	D+	52/100	10.3x	—	5.7%	+3.75%	$1.49B	/ccs-vs-lgih →
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)	C+	68/100	16.5x	—	7.4%	+9.54%	$698.3M	/legh-vs-lgih →
HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	—	—	—	+5.54%	$592.5M	/hov-vs-lgih →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001580670

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.71B (-22.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.20B , and -27.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $72.6M, operating cash flow of -$140.0M, and free cash flow of -$140.9M (+3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, LGIH closed FY2025 with $3.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.60, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.71B	$72.6M	-$140.0M	-$140.9M	$3.93B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.20B	$196.1M	-$143.7M	-$145.7M	$3.76B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.36B	$199.2M	-$57.0M	-$57.0M	—	—

3. LGIH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LGIH compare to DFH and CCS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGIH?

Where is LGIH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LGIH last traded at $47.42 (+6.87% on volume of 406,622 shares), positioning the stock -1.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.05) and -5.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.14). Across its 52-week range of $33.55 to $66.25, LGIH sits at the 42.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($42.01 to $52.83).

Direct Sub-Reports: LGIH RQD Cockpit LGIH 12M Forecast LGIH Earnings & Move LGIH Dividends & DRIP LGIH Insiders & 13F LGIH Whale Options LGIH Profit Sankey LGIH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LGIH — LGI Homes Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $47.42 (+6.87% 1D, market capitalization $1.03B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.0%, gross margin of 20.7%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of -13.86%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.60, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

LGI Homes Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Homebuilding industry. Per the market data, the company reports gross margin of 20.7%, operating margin of 4.7%, and net margin of 4.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) reported $1.71B in annual revenue (up from $2.20B in FY2024, -22.6% YoY) and $72.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.36B revenue, $199.2M net income) through FY2025, LGIH scaled operating cash flow to -$140.0M and free cash flow to -$140.9M, backed by $3.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.86% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $33.55 – $66.25 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 14.0x trailing P/E and 12.6x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Homebuilding (Consumer Discretionary), LGIH carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 20.7%.

Key Question #1: Can LGIH sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 3.0% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.71B and free cash flow of -$140.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is LGIH's 13.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LGIH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LGIH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

LGI Homes (LGIH) Stock Still Looks Reasonable Despite Its 70% Fall

Yahoo Finance report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

LGI Homes Will Likely Continue Underperforming The Market (NASDAQ:LGIH)

Seeking Alpha report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

LGI Homes stock price target maintained at $93 by Citizens

Investing.com report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Lgi Homes Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy LGIH?

StockInvest.us report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

LGI Homes, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:LGIH

TradingView report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

LGI Homes (LGIH) Could Be 54% Undervalued On Its Growth Narrative

Yahoo Finance report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH GuruFocus • 1d ago

LGI Homes Inc (LGIH) Shares Fall 4.5% -- What GF Score of 63 Tel

GuruFocus report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) Stock Now Rated "Hold" by Sell-Side Analysts

MarketBeat report covering LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LGIH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $47.42?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LGIH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $53.24 (+20.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at a P/E of 14 TTM and 13 forward with a $93 Citizens price target cited in the news wire.

Long LGIH at $44.37 targeting $53.24. Trades at a P/E of 14 TTM and 13 forward with a $93 Citizens price target cited in the news wire.. Institutional whale score is 6/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $33.55 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — LGIH's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.38 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $44.37

Negative FCF yield of -13.86% and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 contradict the moderate earnings multiple.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on LGIH: Negative FCF yield of -13.86% and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 contradict the moderate earnings multiple.. At 14.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Homebuilding triggers a 12-15% air pocket.