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Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$14.52 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.49

Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $43.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MBBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Marathon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MBBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $14.52 (0.00% 1D, market cap $43.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBBC ranks #516 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MBBC compare to TCBS and FNWB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), MBBC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.1%. By comparison, TCBS (Texas Community Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 17.5x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $49.6M) and FNWB (First Northwest Bancorp) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.7%, cap $97.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBS leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while TCBS leads on capital efficiency (5.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBBC?
▼

Per MBBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001835385), Marathon Bancorp Inc. generated $104.2M in revenue (+13.8% YoY), $42.0K in net income, and $1.3M in free cash flow against $248.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.49 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$17 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE MBBC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MBBC SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$14.84-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$14.45+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$14.52+0% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$14.52-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MBBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MBBC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.96) or 200D SMA ($14.41) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.39) toward Bear Floor ($11.22).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MBBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MBBC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $14.52: 688.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.22
$7,727
$-2,273 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.39
$9,910
$-90 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $16.98
$11,694
+$1,694 (+16.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBBC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MBBC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MBBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.52H $14.52L $14.52C $14.52VOL 178
RES: $15.17SUP: $14.06SMA50: $14.96SMA200: $14.41
$16.06$14.93$13.81$12.68$11.55RES $15.17SUP $14.06$14.522026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBBC Butterfly Map → + Track MBBC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBBC)

Financials Rank #516 of 1097 ⚔️ TCBS vs MBBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MBBC vs. TCBS, FNWB, BSBK, WSBK)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) ranks #516 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #1020 by equity capitalization ($43.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBS leads on earnings valuation at 17.5x trailing P/E, while TCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.3% ROIC and — gross margin. MBBC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MBBC ACTIVE
Marathon Bancorp Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — 0.1% 0.00% $43.7M Benchmark Subject
TCBS
Texas Community Bancshares Inc.
D+ 55/100 17.5x — 5.3% -0.17% $49.6M /tcbs-vs-mbbc →
FNWB
First Northwest Bancorp
E 32/100 — — -2.7% +0.68% $97.3M /fnwb-vs-mbbc →
BSBK
Bogota Financial Corp.
D+ 56/100 56.3x — 1.5% +1.64% $116.5M /bsbk-vs-mbbc →
WSBK
Winchester Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — -0.7% +0.75% $124.0M /wsbk-vs-mbbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001835385 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) reported GAAP revenue of $104.2M (+13.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $91.5M , and +1225.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $42.0K, operating cash flow of $1.4M, and free cash flow of $1.3M (+168.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBBC closed FY2025 with $248.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $104.2M $42.0K $1.4M $1.3M $248.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $91.5M -$187.0K $416.6K -$1.8M $217.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $7.9M $1.7M $2.0M $2.0M — —

3. MBBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Marathon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MBBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $14.52 (0.00% 1D, market cap $43.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MBBC ranks #516 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBBC compare to TCBS and FNWB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), MBBC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.1%. By comparison, TCBS (Texas Community Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 17.5x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $49.6M) and FNWB (First Northwest Bancorp) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.7%, cap $97.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBS leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while TCBS leads on capital efficiency (5.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBBC?

Per MBBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001835385), Marathon Bancorp Inc. generated $104.2M in revenue (+13.8% YoY), $42.0K in net income, and $1.3M in free cash flow against $248.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBBC last traded at $14.52 (0.00% on volume of 277 shares), positioning the stock -2.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.96) and +0.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.41). Across its 52-week range of $10.53 to $15.79, MBBC sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($14.26 to $14.78).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBBC RQD Cockpit MBBC 12M Forecast MBBC Earnings & Move MBBC Dividends & DRIP MBBC Insiders & 13F MBBC Whale Options MBBC Profit Sankey MBBC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MBBC — Marathon Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $14.52 (0.00% 1D, market capitalization $43.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 2.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Banks industry.. — for specific products, customer segments, or revenue model detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) reported $104.2M in annual revenue (up from $91.5M in FY2024, +13.8% YoY) and $42.0K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.9M revenue, $1.7M net income) through FY2025, MBBC scaled operating cash flow to $1.4M and free cash flow to $1.3M, backed by $248.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.91% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.53 – $15.79 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. — for any ripple analysis.

  • Key Question #1: Can MBBC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 0.1% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $104.2M and free cash flow of $1.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MBBC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MBBC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Marathon Bancorp Inc. (MBBC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MBBC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MBBC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MBBC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MBBC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.84 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at $14.52, near the midpoint of its $10.53–$15.79 52-week range, with a 2.91% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9

Picked up a starter position in MBBC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $14.52. The stock trades at $14.52, near the midpoint of its $10.53–$15.79 52-week range, with a 2.91% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9.. Trading inside a $10.53–$15.79 52-week range with 2.91% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Banks multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MBBC's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.91 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $14.52

ROIC of 0.1%, a Roarable RQD score of 56 (D+), and weak whale (8/20) and insider (9/20) pillars point to thin fundamentals and little s

ROIC of 0.1%, a Roarable RQD score of 56 (D+), and weak whale (8/20) and insider (9/20) pillars point to thin fundamentals and little smart-money support.. Look at the math on MBBC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.1% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $12.78 before getting long.

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