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Stock Ratings / Energy / MUR / earnings
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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.3% Move

$40.16 -8.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.46

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.30B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MUR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $40.16 (-8.62% 1D, market cap $6.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MUR ranks #120 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MUR compare to LB and SWX in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MUR carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 58.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, LB (LandBridge Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 88.2x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $6.44B) and SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $6.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MGY leads on capital efficiency (21.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MUR?
▼

Per MUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717423), Murphy Oil Corporation generated $2.69B in revenue (-10.9% YoY), $104.2M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $9.83B in total assets and $2.07B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.46 (-1.74%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (18)SEC (9)Macro (12)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$47 Bull$39 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE MUR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MUR SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 74% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$39.31+9.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$42.96+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$42.99-6.6% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$40.16-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MUR currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($39.11) and Max Pain ($42.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $47.28.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.3% Swing Band

±$2.53 Expected Swing
$37.63 (-6.3%)Spot $40.16$42.69 (+6.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MUR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $0.73 • YoY Revenue Growth: -10.9%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$2.69B$104.2M$93.8M100%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.02B$407.2M$366.5M99.9%
FY 20232023-12-31$3.45B$661.6M$595.4M92%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MUR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.72%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $42.84H $43.95L $40.16C $40.16VOL 1.41M
RES: $45.62SUP: $37.98SMA50: $39.11SMA200: $37.02
$46.01$41.96$37.91$33.86$29.81RES $45.62SUP $37.98$40.162026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MUR Butterfly Map → + Track MUR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
40.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MUR)

Energy Rank #120 of 211 ⚔️ LB vs MUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MUR vs. LB, SWX, MGY, VAL)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) ranks #120 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #76 by equity capitalization ($6.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VAL leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while MGY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.2% ROIC and — gross margin. MGY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with MUR at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MUR ACTIVE
Murphy Oil Corporation
D+ 53/100 58.9x 96.0% 3.6% -8.62% $6.30B Benchmark Subject
LB
LandBridge Corporation (Class A)
C+ 67/100 88.2x — 10.8% -5.01% $6.44B /lb-vs-mur →
SWX
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc.
D 50/100 15.3x — 5.5% +0.70% $6.74B /swx-vs-mur →
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
B 75/100 21.6x — 21.2% -5.47% $7.10B /mgy-vs-mur →
VAL
Valaris Limited
B 73/100 7.2x — 10.3% -10.09% $7.31B /val-vs-mur →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717423 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.69B (-10.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and -22.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $104.2M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, MUR closed FY2025 with $9.83B in total assets against $2.07B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.10, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.69B $104.2M — — $9.83B $2.07B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.02B $407.2M — — $9.67B $1.95B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.45B $661.6M — — $4.14B $968.4M

3. MUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $40.16 (-8.62% 1D, market cap $6.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MUR ranks #120 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MUR compare to LB and SWX in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MUR carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 58.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, LB (LandBridge Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 88.2x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $6.44B) and SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $6.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MGY leads on capital efficiency (21.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MUR?

Per MUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717423), Murphy Oil Corporation generated $2.69B in revenue (-10.9% YoY), $104.2M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $9.83B in total assets and $2.07B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MUR last traded at $40.16 (-8.62% on volume of 2,209,371 shares), positioning the stock +2.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.11) and +8.48% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.02). Across its 52-week range of $26.49 to $45.03, MUR sits at the 73.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($37.63 to $42.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: MUR RQD Cockpit MUR 12M Forecast MUR Earnings & Move MUR Dividends & DRIP MUR Insiders & 13F MUR Whale Options MUR Profit Sankey MUR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MUR — Murphy Oil Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $40.16 (-8.62% 1D, market capitalization $6.30B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.6%, gross margin of 96.0%, operating margin of 11.2%, and free cash flow yield of -0.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.10, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.38x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Murphy Oil Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating within Oil & Gas Production..1B. Gross margin is reported at 96%, operating margin at 11.2%, and net margin at 3.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) reported $2.69B in annual revenue (up from $3.02B in FY2024, -10.9% YoY) and $104.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.45B revenue, $661.6M net income) through FY2025, MUR scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $9.83B in total assets against $2.07B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.04% and institutional whale pillar of 18/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $26.49 – $45.03 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 58.9x trailing P/E and 19.0x EV/EBITDA against 11.2% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the beta of 0.98, or specific second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should note that the reported beta of 0.98 indicates price movement roughly in line with the broader market, and that the sector classification alone does not identify particular supplier or customer exposures.

  • Key Question #1: Can MUR sustain or expand its 11.2% operating margin and 3.6% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.69B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.07B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MUR's 54.8x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

MUR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MUR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MUR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.16?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MUR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MUR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $50.98 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (Whale pillar 16/20) and a 52-week-high headline signal sustained market interest in MUR.

Picked up a starter position in MUR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $43.95. Institutional accumulation (Whale pillar 16/20) and a 52-week-high headline signal sustained market interest in MUR.. Trading inside a $26.49–$45.03 52-week range with -0.04% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Oil & Gas Production multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 58.9x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (96.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.36 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $43.95

Negative FCF yield (-0.04%), ROIC of 3.6%, and net income falling to $104.2M in FY 2025 weaken the cash-generation case.

Fading this rally in MUR at $43.95. Negative FCF yield (-0.04%), ROIC of 3.6%, and net income falling to $104.2M in FY 2025 weaken the cash-generation case.. With a beta of 0.98 and the stock sitting at $43.95 (52-wk range $26.49–$45.03), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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