MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$22.79 +0.04% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.56B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?
β–Ό

Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 15.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 54.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (9)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$33 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MWA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MWA SCORES 62/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 9/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$21.87-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$21.75+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$22.46+1.5% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$22.79+0.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (54) β†’ C (62)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, MWA faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 33.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.61) or 200D SMA ($25.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.20) toward Bear Floor ($18.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MWAβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MWA Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MWA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MWA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MWA Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.31%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $22.13H $22.79L $22.13C $22.79VOL 1.82M
RES: $29.66SUP: $19.56SMA50: $22.61SMA200: $25.85
$29.48$27.16$24.83$22.50$20.18RES $29.66SUP $19.56$22.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MWA today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MWA)

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MWA vs. CXT, CSTM, XE, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #171 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while XE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. CXT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MWA at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MWA ACTIVE
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
C 62/100 18.6x 36.1% 14.0% +0.04% $3.56B Benchmark Subject
CXT
Crane NXT Co.
B 73/100 23.9x 42.5% 19.1% -2.69% $3.47B /cxt-vs-mwa β†’
CSTM
Constellium SE (France)
D+ 56/100 11.8x β€” 28.7% -3.79% $3.23B /cstm-vs-mwa β†’
XE
X-Energy Inc.
D+ 56/100 32.8x β€” 38.5% -6.58% $4.75B /xe-vs-mwa β†’
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
E 26/100 β€” 36.3% -35.0% -5.07% $2.54B /smr-vs-mwa β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-30 β€’ CIK 0001350593

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.7M, operating cash flow of $219.3M, and free cash flow of $219.3M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MWA closed FY2025 with $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.43B $191.7M $219.3M $219.3M $1.85B $450.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.31B $115.9M $238.8M $238.8M $1.62B $448.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.28B $85.5M $109.0M $109.0M β€” β€”

3. MWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MWA last traded at $22.79 (+0.04% on volume of 1,144,532 shares), positioning the stock +0.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.61) and -11.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.85). Across its 52-week range of $20.90 to $31.00, MWA sits at the 18.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.0% ($21.65 to $23.93).

MWA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are MWA insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies MWA leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 62/100 (C) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MWA β€” MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:14Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MWA scores 62 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C and the verdict label "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 14% and FCF yield is 6.17%. This pillar suggests the business generates a reasonable return on capital and meaningful free cash flow relative to its price, though it is not scored at the top of the range.
  • Whale / 13F Flow (9 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score modestly. For a prospective investor, this indicates limited evidence of strong institutional conviction in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is the strongest pillar. This is a relative positive signal, though the source data does not itemize the underlying transactions.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity scores low. A prospective investor should recognize that the stock's performance may track broader market and sector cycles rather than offering insulation.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 4.22, Piotroski F is 9/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.44. These are the most supportive forensic readings in the source data.

Taken together, the investor implications are balanced. Upside drivers include the cash-generation profile, the strong forensic balance sheet, and the insider-flow pillar. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 18.6 and forward P/E of 17.3 sit relative to the stated EV/EBITDA of 15.4, and the price of 22.78 sits near the lower portion of the stated 52-week range of $20.9 - $31. Weaker pillars (whale flow and macro fit) indicate that conviction and cyclical exposure are the main considerations.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
22.78$3.56B18.617.315.41.231.18%1.0$20.9 - $3114%

Business

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector and Metal Fabrications industry, per the profile section. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1429.7M$260.6M$191.7MN/A$219.3MN/A$450.9M
FY 2024$1314.7M$181.7M$115.9MN/A$238.8MN/A$448.7M
FY 2023$1275.7M$127.4M$85.5MN/A$109.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1275.7M in FY 2023 to $1429.7M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $85.5M to $191.7M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 36.1%, operating margin 18.2%, and net margin 13.4%, with ROIC at 14%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.22 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, both supportive readings, and Debt/Equity is 0.44. FY 2025 free cash flow of $219.3M was below FY 2024's $238.8M, a point worth noting in the trend.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section:

  • GREEN / CATALYST: A TradingView report indicates a dividend increase of 14.3% and a $300 Million addition to the buyback authorization.
  • RED / RISK WATCH: An Investing.com report indicates the stock fell on a CFO transition announcement.
  • YELLOW / MARKET WIRE: Multiple items cover implied volatility rising in MWA options, a ChartMill article on dividend quality, a Yahoo Finance earnings-growth discussion, and a MarketBeat report of an Oppenheimer price target trim.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the cash balance, and how does it reconcile with the reported FY 2025 debt of $450.9M?
  • What drove the decline in FY 2025 free cash flow relative to FY 2024?
  • What are the specific terms and timing of the CFO transition referenced in the news wire?
  • What insider and institutional transactions make up the RQD insider and whale-flow pillars?
  • What is the EPS for each reported fiscal year, given that EPS is recorded as N/A in the financials?

MWA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MWA Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MWA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $22.79?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MWA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MWA:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $24.60 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MWA (C β€’ RQD 62/100) a Buy at $22.78?

Welcome to the MWA (MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.45 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $22.78

Pump the brakes on MWA β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MWA, but look at what you are paying: 18.6x trailing P/E with 36.1% gross margins. Unless MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.65 (+17.0%)
Spot @ $22.78

MWA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MWA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $22.78 (52-wk range $20.90 - $31.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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