Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NLY holds an RQD Score of 48, graded D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Scored on ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%. This is the weakest-contributing pillar in terms of cash generation relative to the scoring frame.
• Whale / 13F Flow: 5 / 20. Institutional accumulation and options positioning are scored at the low end, indicating limited evidence of large-holder accumulation in the rating inputs.
• Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow are the strongest pillar, indicating the most favorable signal in the rating.
• Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. Scored on Beta of 1.15 and sector sensitivity, indicating the rating treats the stock as exposed to the current regime.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Supported by Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating's signal is that the cash-generation and institutional-flow pillars drag the score, while insider flow and balance-sheet forensics offer partial support. Upside drivers implied by the data are the insider-conviction and balance-sheet pillars; the valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data, where a P/E (TTM) of 7.1 and a dividend yield of 11.5% sit alongside an ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%. The high yield and low earnings multiple should be weighed against the weak return-on-capital and cash-yield pillars. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Per the Profile, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $14.6B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generation mechanics. Per the market data, the operating margin is 61.4% and net margin is 50.4%, while the gross margin is reported as 0%. Revenue is reported as $0.0M in each financial period in the source data.

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $-1638.5M in FY 2023 to $1011.8M in FY 2024 and $2051.7M in FY 2025, while reported debt rose from $1872.8M to $40886.7M and then $53752.5M over the same periods. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the forensic inputs are an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5; ROIC is 4% per the market data. Free cash flow fell from $3310.7M in FY 2024 to $692.9M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials. Cash is reported as N/A in all periods.

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the following items are reported (all flagged YELLOW in the feed):

• A Yahoo Finance report on NLY borrowing "$7 for Every $1 of Equity" and what that buys.
• A Seeking Alpha piece on the dividend and a valuation discount.
• An Investing.com report that the stock hit a 52-week low at 17.81 USD.
• A Yahoo Finance report on a Series I Preferred redemption.
• A MarketBeat report on a new 52-week low and a sell question.
• A Seeking Alpha piece on a preferred share with a 9.31% dividend yield (NLY.PR.F).

Risk watch items implied by the feed: repeated 52-week-low reporting and leverage commentary. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are reported.

• What are the reported revenue and cash balances, given that revenue is shown as $0.0M and cash as N/A across all periods?
• What drove the swing in debt from $1872.8M in FY 2023 to $53752.5M in FY 2025, and how does it relate to the reported Debt/Equity of 0.5?
• What explains the decline in FCF from $3310.7M in FY 2024 to $692.9M in FY 2025?
• How does the 11.5% dividend yield relate to the reported ROIC of 4% and FCF yield of 3.5%?
• What is the basis for the Series I Preferred redemption referenced in the news feed, and how does it affect common shareholders?