How profitable is Post Holdings Inc. (POST)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), POST converted $8.2B of revenue into a 28.7% gross margin, 9.8% operating margin, and $998.3M in free cash flow (12.2% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / POST / financials

FRPT (71) MZTI (65) INGR (63) CPB (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$83.22 +1.92% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $83.35

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.66B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on POST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is POST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $83.22 (+1.92% 1D, market cap $3.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, POST ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does POST compare to FRPT and MZTI in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), POST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of 28.7%, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FRPT (Freshpet Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $3.24B) and MZTI (The Marzetti Company) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INGR leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for POST?

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Per POST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001530950), Post Holdings Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+3.0% YoY), $335.7M in net income, and $998.3M in free cash flow against $12.98B in total assets and $7.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $83.35 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for POST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY POST SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.2% FCF Margin ($998.3M FCF) & 28.7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$76.94+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$78.26+1.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$79.40+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$83.22-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a POST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While POST currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($78.51) and Max Pain ($87.38) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $123.14.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $POST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “POST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How POST Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$998.3M (12.2% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $6.99B

FY24

Rev $7.92B

FY25

Rev $8.16B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$8.16B	28.7%	9.8%	$335.7M	$998.3M	5.9%
FY 2024	$7.92B	29.1%	10%	$366.7M	$931.7M	6.3%
FY 2023	$6.99B	28.7%	8.6%	$301.3M	$750.3M	5.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring POST)

✓Walkthrough of POST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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POST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.86%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $81.65H $83.22L $81.65C $83.22VOL 552.5K

RES: $84.01SUP: $68.93SMA50: $78.51SMA200: $91.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

POST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 POST Butterfly Map → + Track POST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on POST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for POST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for POST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (POST)

Consumer Staples Rank #79 of 146 ⚔️ FRPT vs POST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (POST vs. FRPT, MZTI, INGR, CPB)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Post Holdings Inc. (POST) ranks #79 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #45 by equity capitalization ($3.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INGR leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. FRPT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with POST at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
POST ACTIVE Post Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	10.7x	28.7%	5.9%	+1.92%	$3.66B	Benchmark Subject
FRPT Freshpet Inc.	B-	71/100	22.8x	40.8%	6.4%	+2.09%	$3.24B	/frpt-vs-post →
MZTI The Marzetti Company	C	65/100	17.8x	23.9%	20.9%	+0.57%	$2.99B	/mzti-vs-post →
INGR Ingredion Incorporated	C	63/100	8.3x	25.3%	16.1%	+1.44%	$6.12B	/ingr-vs-post →
CPB The Campbell's Company	C	63/100	10.4x	30.4%	10.8%	+2.00%	$6.39B	/cpb-vs-post →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001530950

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Post Holdings Inc. (POST) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+3.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.92B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $335.7M, operating cash flow of $998.3M, and free cash flow of $998.3M (+7.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, POST closed FY2025 with $12.98B in total assets against $7.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.38, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$8.16B	$335.7M	$998.3M	$998.3M	$12.98B	$7.46B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$7.92B	$366.7M	$931.7M	$931.7M	$12.82B	$6.94B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$6.99B	$301.3M	$750.3M	$750.3M	—	—

3. POST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is POST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does POST compare to FRPT and MZTI in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for POST?

Where is POST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

POST last traded at $83.22 (+1.92% on volume of 552,535 shares), positioning the stock +6.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($78.51) and -9.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.90). Across its 52-week range of $71.45 to $117.28, POST sits at the 25.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($78.64 to $87.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: POST RQD Cockpit POST 12M Forecast POST Earnings & Move POST Dividends & DRIP POST Insiders & 13F POST Whale Options POST Profit Sankey POST News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

POST — Post Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:12Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

POST scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 5.9% and an FCF yield of 0%. For an investor, a 5.9% return on invested capital is a thin spread, and a 0% FCF yield means the current share price is not supported by free cash generation on the source's measure. Upside from this pillar depends on margin recovery or stronger cash conversion, neither of which the source data quantifies beyond the reported figures.
Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. The RQD rating describes institutional accumulation and options positioning as weak. No holder-level detail is supplied, so the score cannot be traced to specific filers. Institutional support is therefore a lighter tailwind than it would be for a higher-scoring name.
Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is only moderately supportive. Without transaction-level data in the holders section, an investor cannot verify direction or size of insider activity.
Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. The rating records beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move roughly with the market, so it offers neither defensive cushioning nor amplified upside relative to the broader tape.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 6 / 20. This is the weakest pillar. The rating cites an Altman Z of 1.38, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.16. A Z-score in this range and leverage of this magnitude are the primary reasons the stock carries a sell-oriented verdict, and they constrain valuation support even where earnings multiples look modest.

Taken together, the pillars indicate that the most favorable multiples (P/E of 10.7 TTM and forward P/E of 10) sit alongside weak returns, no free-cash yield, and a leveraged balance sheet. A prospective investor should treat the low multiple as a valuation tradeoff against balance-sheet and cash-return risk rather than as an isolated signal of cheapness.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Packaged Foods industry (Consumer Staples sector) with an equity market capitalization of $3.66B. The business operates with a gross margin of 28.7%, an operating margin of 9.8%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Packaged Foods peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

Revenue rose from $6.99B in FY 2023 to $8.16B in FY 2025, while net income moved from $301.3M to $335.7M after peaking at $366.7M in FY 2024. Per the market data, gross margin is 28.7%, operating margin 9.8%, and net margin 4.1%, with ROIC at 5.9%. The Altman Z-Score is 1.38 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, per the RQD rating. Debt rose from $6.94B to $7.46B while reported cash declined from $872.9M to $279.3M, and the rating records Debt/Equity of 2.16, indicating a leveraged balance sheet posture.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: Low earnings multiples (P/E 10.7 TTM, forward P/E 10) against a 52-week range that already includes a $117.28 high leave room for re-rating if cash returns improve. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC 5.9%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $71.45 – $117.28 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: A 0% FCF yield, 5.9% ROIC, Altman Z of 1.38, and Debt/Equity of 2.16 point to a weak cash engine and leveraged balance sheet that the RQD rating scores as a distribution warning. Investors must weigh 10.7x trailing P/E and 13.5x EV/EBITDA against 9.8% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should not infer 2nd-order exposures from the sector label alone, because the source does not map them.

Key Question #1: What product lines, customer channels, and revenue mix drive the $8.16B FY 2025 revenue figure?
Key Question #2: Why are EPS values reported as N/A in every period, and what is the reported per-share earnings trajectory?
Key Question #3: What explains the decline in reported cash from $872.9M to $279.3M, and how is the rise in debt being serviced?

POST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Post Holdings Inc. (POST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to POST Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Japan Post Holdings (TSE:6178) Stock Looks Hard To Call On Returns

Yahoo Finance report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST CNBC • 23h ago

Alphabet drags on Nasdaq futures as the stock faces a record post-earnings loss

CNBC report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Reuters • 1d ago

European stocks post weekly loss as France turmoil, oil prices dent earnings optimism

Reuters report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Pittsburgh Post-Gazette • 1d ago

U.S. stocks rise after companies deliver strong profits and oil prices retreat

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Cassandra Unchained | Michael Burry • 1d ago

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hong Kong stocks Value Stocks late in a Bull Market, and Consolidating a Big Short

Cassandra Unchained | Michael Burry report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Jersey Mike's CEO says the stock is 'undervalued' after post-IPO slump

Yahoo Finance report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Post-Q3 Earnings: Is SNDL Stock a Portfolio Must-Have?

Yahoo Finance report covering Post Holdings Inc. (POST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

POST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $83.22?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON POST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $105.69 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Low earnings multiples (P/E 10.7 TTM, forward P/E 10) against a 52-week range that already includes a $117.28 high leave room for re-ra

Low earnings multiples (P/E 10.7 TTM, forward P/E 10) against a 52-week range that already includes a $117.28 high leave room for re-rating if cash returns improve.. When you look under the hood at POST, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 28.7% gross margins and 5.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $117.28. My 12M target is $105.69.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $83.22 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Staples.

RI RiskArb_Desk Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $66.58 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $83.22

A 0% FCF yield, 5.9% ROIC, Altman Z of 1.38, and Debt/Equity of 2.16 point to a weak cash engine and leveraged balance sheet that the R

Careful chasing POST at $83.22. A 0% FCF yield, 5.9% ROIC, Altman Z of 1.38, and Debt/Equity of 2.16 point to a weak cash engine and leveraged balance sheet that the RQD rating scores as a distribution warning.. Gross margin is 28.7%, but operating margin is 9.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $66.58 on multiple compression.