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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PZZA / financials
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Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$18.90 +2.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.95

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $607.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $18.90 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $607.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $520.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?
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Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.95 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (19)Whales (4)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$55 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE PZZA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PZZA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PZZA SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($61.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$19.30-3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$18.73-3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$18.07+4.6% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$18.90+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PZZA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, PZZA faces multiple-compression risk if 20.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.29) or 200D SMA ($29.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.16) toward Bear Floor ($14.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PZZA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PZZA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How PZZA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$61.3M (3% FCF Margin)
Revenue$2.05BGross Profit $1.07B (52%)Cost of Sales $985.8MOp Profit $89.1M (4.3%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $978.8MNet Profit$30.5M (1.5%)Tax/Other $58.6M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $2.14B
FY24
Rev $2.06B
FY25
Rev $2.05B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$2.05B52%4.3%$30.5M$61.3M30.5%
FY 2024$2.06B52%7.6%$83.5M$34.1M45.2%
FY 2023$2.14B52%6.9%$82.1M$193.1M30.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PZZA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of PZZA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PZZA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.28%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $18.79H $18.90L $18.45C $18.90VOL 1.48M
RES: $17.13SUP: $15.13SMA50: $20.29SMA200: $29.87
$42.47$35.76$29.04$22.33$15.62RES $17.13SUP $15.13$18.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PZZA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PZZA Butterfly Map → + Track PZZA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PZZA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PZZA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PZZA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PZZA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #309 of 1009 ⚔️ HDL vs PZZA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PZZA vs. HDL, BRCB, CNNE, FWRG)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) ranks #309 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #564 by equity capitalization ($607.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PZZA leads on earnings valuation at 20.3x trailing P/E, while PZZA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PZZA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PZZA ACTIVE
Papa John's International Inc.
C- 61/100 20.3x — 30.5% +2.41% $607.6M Benchmark Subject
HDL
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
D 46/100 — — — 0.00% $643.8M /hdl-vs-pzza →
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)
E 34/100 — — 1.6% +2.07% $520.8M /brcb-vs-pzza →
CNNE
Cannae Holdings Inc.
E 34/100 — 15.5% -10.6% +2.39% $743.4M /cnne-vs-pzza →
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.
D- 38/100 39.7x — 3.6% +1.65% $786.2M /fwrg-vs-pzza →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0000901491 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and -3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.5M, operating cash flow of $126.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M (+79.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PZZA closed FY2025 with $837.5M in total assets against $710.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.37, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-28 $2.05B $30.5M $126.0M $61.3M $837.5M $710.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-29 $2.06B $83.5M $106.6M $34.1M $889.0M $741.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.14B $82.1M $193.1M $193.1M — —

3. PZZA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $18.90 (+2.41% 1D, market cap $607.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $520.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?

Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PZZA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PZZA last traded at $18.90 (+2.41% on volume of 1,748,074 shares), positioning the stock -6.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.29) and -36.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.87). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $52.02, PZZA sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($17.63 to $20.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: PZZA RQD Cockpit PZZA 12M Forecast PZZA Earnings & Move PZZA Dividends & DRIP PZZA Insiders & 13F PZZA Whale Options PZZA Profit Sankey PZZA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PZZA — Papa John's International Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $18.90 (+2.41% 1D, market capitalization $607.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 4.3%, and free cash flow yield of 9.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.37, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Papa John's International Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Restaurants industry.05B in FY 2025, is shown in the Financial Trend section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) reported $2.05B in annual revenue (up from $2.06B in FY2024, -0.3% YoY) and $30.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.14B revenue, $82.1M net income) through FY2025, PZZA scaled operating cash flow to $126.0M and free cash flow to $61.3M, backed by $837.5M in total assets against $710.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.70 – $52.02 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 20.3x trailing P/E and 9.0x EV/EBITDA against 4.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks are likewise — The only sector-level input is the RQD macro pillar (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), which scores 8/20.

  • Key Question #1: Can PZZA sustain or expand its 4.3% operating margin and 30.5% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.05B and free cash flow of $61.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $710.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PZZA's 18.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PZZA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PZZA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PZZA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.90?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PZZA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PZZA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.96 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Return on invested capital of 30.5% and an FCF yield of 9.91% indicate strong cash generation per the RQD rating.

Don't sleep on PZZA's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Return on invested capital of 30.5% and an FCF yield of 9.91% indicate strong cash generation per the RQD rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (61/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $18.45 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.76 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $18.45

Revenue, operating income, and net income declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while institutional flow scored only 4/20 in the RQD rating.

Fading this rally in PZZA at $18.45. Revenue, operating income, and net income declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while institutional flow scored only 4/20 in the RQD rating.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $18.45 (52-wk range $17.70–$52.02), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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