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Stock Ratings / Health Care / RCEL / forecast
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Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.65 -6.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.44

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $484.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RCEL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RCEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Avita Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: RCEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.65 (-6.34% 1D, market cap $484.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RCEL ranks #333 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RCEL compare to DCTH and SSII in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), RCEL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 82.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DCTH (Delcath Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.8%, cap $487.2M) and SSII (SS Innovations International Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.5%, cap $471.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RCEL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DCTH leads on capital efficiency (0.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCEL?
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Per RCEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001762303), Avita Medical Inc. generated $71.6M in revenue (+11.5% YoY), -$48.6M in net income, and -$32.2M in free cash flow against $56.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.44 (-1.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (16)SEC (11)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$18 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE RCEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RCEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RCEL SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$13.36+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$13.80+16.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$16.08-2.7% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$15.65-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RCEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RCEL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.46) and Max Pain ($16.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RCEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RCEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RCEL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.65: 639.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.54
$7,374
$-2,626 (-26.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.80
$9,457
$-543 (-5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $17.75
$11,342
+$1,342 (+13.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RCEL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RCEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
RCEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +265.65%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $16.71H $16.71L $15.65C $15.65VOL 597.1K
RES: $17.20SUP: $5.59SMA50: $12.46SMA200: $6.68
$17.82$14.00$10.18$6.36$2.54RES $17.20SUP $5.59$15.652026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RCEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RCEL Butterfly Map → + Track RCEL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RCEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RCEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RCEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RCEL)

Health Care Rank #333 of 1016 ⚔️ DCTH vs RCEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RCEL vs. DCTH, SSII, SENS, ANGO)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) ranks #333 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #450 by equity capitalization ($484.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RCEL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while DCTH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.8% ROIC and 86.2% gross margin. DCTH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with RCEL at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RCEL ACTIVE
Avita Medical Inc.
D 46/100 — 82.1% -35.0% -6.34% $484.0M Benchmark Subject
DCTH
Delcath Systems Inc.
C- 59/100 — 86.2% 0.8% -4.10% $487.2M /dcth-vs-rcel →
SSII
SS Innovations International Inc.
E 30/100 — 46.0% -18.5% -1.26% $471.1M /ssii-vs-rcel →
SENS
Senseonics Holdings Inc.
D- 40/100 — 44.7% -35.0% -2.46% $502.8M /sens-vs-rcel →
ANGO
AngioDynamics Inc.
D- 36/100 — 54.6% -23.4% -2.91% $504.2M /ango-vs-rcel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001762303

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) reported GAAP revenue of $71.6M (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $64.3M , and +42.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$48.6M, operating cash flow of -$31.2M, and free cash flow of -$32.2M (+44.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, RCEL closed FY2025 with $56.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $71.6M -$48.6M -$31.2M -$32.2M $56.4M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $64.3M -$61.8M -$48.9M -$58.1M $79.7M $42.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.1M -$35.4M -$38.0M -$38.0M — —

3. RCEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RCEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Avita Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: RCEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.65 (-6.34% 1D, market cap $484.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RCEL ranks #333 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RCEL compare to DCTH and SSII in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), RCEL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 82.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DCTH (Delcath Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.8%, cap $487.2M) and SSII (SS Innovations International Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.5%, cap $471.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RCEL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DCTH leads on capital efficiency (0.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCEL?

Per RCEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001762303), Avita Medical Inc. generated $71.6M in revenue (+11.5% YoY), -$48.6M in net income, and -$32.2M in free cash flow against $56.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RCEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RCEL last traded at $15.65 (-6.34% on volume of 597,088 shares), positioning the stock +25.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.46) and +134.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.68). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $16.90, RCEL sits at the 90.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($13.69 to $17.61).

RCEL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RCEL's 12-month stock price target?

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $14.8 (-5.4% from $15.65), with a bull-case target of $17.75 and a bear-case floor of $11.54.

Is RCEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates RCEL D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: RCEL RQD Cockpit RCEL 12M Forecast RCEL Earnings & Move RCEL Dividends & DRIP RCEL Insiders & 13F RCEL Whale Options RCEL Profit Sankey RCEL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RCEL — Avita Medical Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:33Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, RCEL carries an RQD Score of 46 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is -6.23%. This is the weakest pillar relative to its weight, reflecting that the business is not currently generating cash returns on capital. For a prospective investor, the implication is that value depends on a future operating turnaround rather than on present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the strongest pillar, suggesting institutional interest, though the source data does not itemize the holders behind this score.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is the lowest of the five, indicating insider activity that the rating does not read as supportive of the stock.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies market-like volatility, and the score signals limited alignment with the current macro regime per the rating's model.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is a middling pillar: the balance sheet is not in distress by these measures but shows limited financial strength.

Taken together, the rating's pillar mix points to a company with strong institutional interest but weak cash economics and weak insider conviction. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on operating improvement and continued institutional support, while the valuation tradeoff is that the stock is priced without current free-cash-flow support. The distribution warning in the verdict label signals that the rating model views the risk-reward as unfavorable today. This analysis is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$71.6M$-42.5M$-48.6MN/A$-32.2M$10.2M$0.0M
FY 2024$64.3M$-56.6M$-61.8MN/A$-58.1M$14.1M$42.2M
FY 2023$50.1M$-42.7M$-35.4MN/A$-38.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating losses in each period shown, with operating margin of -59.4% and net margin of -60% per the market data. Revenue rose from $50.1M in FY 2023 to $71.6M in FY 2025, while losses persisted. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35%, Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. Per the same rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5, and the source financials show debt falling from $42.2M in FY 2024 to $0.0M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, all six items are flagged YELLOW with the impact label "MARKET WIRE." Key items include:

  • A live call on third-quarter results scheduled for Nov. 5 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific (Stock Titan).
  • A BTIG Research price target increase (MarketBeat).
  • A Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Benzinga).
  • A coverage piece on what holders bought before a 347% run (Yahoo Finance).

Risk watch items are not separately itemized in the source data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain status is "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's forward earnings and EBITDA estimates, given that P/E and EV/EBITDA are absent from the source data?
  • What drove the FY 2025 operating loss of $-42.5M, and what is the trajectory toward operating breakeven?
  • Which institutional holders underpin the 16 / 20 whale flow score, and what are their position sizes?
  • What product lines and customer concentrations generate the $71.6M revenue?
  • What is the cash runway given $10.2M of cash against a $-32.2M FCF in FY 2025?

RCEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RCEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RCEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.65?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RCEL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RCEL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $18.05 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RCEL (D • RQD 46/100) a Buy at $16.71?

Welcome to the RCEL (Avita Medical Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 46/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Medical/Dental Instruments. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.87 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $16.71

Pump the brakes on RCEL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RCEL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 82.1% gross margins. Unless Avita Medical Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.89 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $16.71

RCEL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RCEL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Medical/Dental Instruments and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $16.71 (52-wk range $3.22 - $16.90), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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