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DCTH (59) SSII (30) SENS (40) ANGO (36) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$15.41 -1.53% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.34

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $484.0M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RCEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Avita Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: RCEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.41 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $484.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RCEL ranks #332 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RCEL compare to DCTH and SSII in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), RCEL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 82.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DCTH (Delcath Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.8%, cap $487.2M) and SSII (SS Innovations International Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.5%, cap $471.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RCEL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DCTH leads on capital efficiency (0.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCEL?
β–Ό

Per RCEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001762303), Avita Medical Inc. generated $71.6M in revenue (+11.5% YoY), -$48.6M in net income, and -$32.2M in free cash flow against $56.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.34 (-0.47%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510046
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (16)SEC (11)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$18 Bull$15 Base$11 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE RCEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RCEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY RCEL SCORES 46/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$13.36+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$13.80+16.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$16.08-4.2% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$15.41-6.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (38) β†’ D (46)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RCEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While RCEL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.46) and Max Pain ($16.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.75.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RCELβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œRCEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RCEL)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RCEL.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RCEL)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of RCEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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RCEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +260.05%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $16.71H $16.71L $15.41C $15.41VOL 597.1K
RES: $17.20SUP: $5.59SMA50: $12.46SMA200: $6.68
$17.82$14.00$10.18$6.36$2.54RES $17.20SUP $5.59$15.412026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RCEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ RCEL Butterfly Map β†’ + Track RCEL β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RCEL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RCEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RCEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RCEL)

Health Care Rank #332 of 1015 βš”οΈ DCTH vs RCEL Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RCEL vs. DCTH, SSII, SENS, ANGO)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) ranks #332 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #449 by equity capitalization ($484.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RCEL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while DCTH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.8% ROIC and 86.2% gross margin. DCTH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with RCEL at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RCEL ACTIVE
Avita Medical Inc.
D 46/100 β€” 82.1% -35.0% -1.53% $484.0M Benchmark Subject
DCTH
Delcath Systems Inc.
C- 59/100 β€” 86.2% 0.8% +1.78% $487.2M /dcth-vs-rcel β†’
SSII
SS Innovations International Inc.
E 30/100 β€” 46.0% -18.5% -1.70% $471.1M /ssii-vs-rcel β†’
SENS
Senseonics Holdings Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” 44.7% -35.0% -5.57% $502.8M /sens-vs-rcel β†’
ANGO
AngioDynamics Inc.
D- 36/100 β€” 54.6% -23.4% -1.92% $504.2M /ango-vs-rcel β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001762303 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) reported GAAP revenue of $71.6M (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $64.3M , and +42.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$48.6M, operating cash flow of -$31.2M, and free cash flow of -$32.2M (+44.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, RCEL closed FY2025 with $56.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $71.6M -$48.6M -$31.2M -$32.2M $56.4M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $64.3M -$61.8M -$48.9M -$58.1M $79.7M $42.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.1M -$35.4M -$38.0M -$38.0M β€” β€”

3. RCEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RCEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Avita Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: RCEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $15.41 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $484.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RCEL ranks #332 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RCEL compare to DCTH and SSII in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), RCEL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 82.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DCTH (Delcath Systems Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.8%, cap $487.2M) and SSII (SS Innovations International Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.5%, cap $471.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RCEL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DCTH leads on capital efficiency (0.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RCEL?

Per RCEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001762303), Avita Medical Inc. generated $71.6M in revenue (+11.5% YoY), -$48.6M in net income, and -$32.2M in free cash flow against $56.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RCEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RCEL last traded at $15.41 (-1.53% on volume of 491,877 shares), positioning the stock +23.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.46) and +130.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.68). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $16.90, RCEL sits at the 89.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($13.48 to $17.34).

Direct Sub-Reports: RCEL RQD Cockpit RCEL 12M Forecast RCEL Earnings & Move RCEL Dividends & DRIP RCEL Insiders & 13F RCEL Whale Options RCEL Profit Sankey RCEL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 46/100 (D) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RCEL β€” Avita Medical Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $15.41 (-1.53% 1D, market capitalization $484.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 82.1%, operating margin of -59.4%, and free cash flow yield of -6.23%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Avita Medical Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 82.1%, indicating high gross profit per dollar of revenue. Per the financials, FY 2025 revenue was $71.6M.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) reported $71.6M in annual revenue (up from $64.3M in FY2024, +11.5% YoY) and -$48.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($50.1M revenue, -$35.4M net income) through FY2025, RCEL scaled operating cash flow to -$31.2M and free cash flow to -$32.2M, backed by $56.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D β€’ RQD 46/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -6.23% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.22 – $16.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -59.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream links are recorded, and no proprietary signals are present.

  • Key Question #1: Can RCEL sustain or expand its -59.4% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $71.6M and free cash flow of -$32.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RCEL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RCEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avita Medical Inc. (RCEL) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to RCEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RCEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $15.41?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RCEL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RCEL:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.15 (+16.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional whale flow scores 16 / 20 and the stock has rallied from a $3.22 52-week low to $16.71, with revenue growing from $50.1M

Picked up a starter position in RCEL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $15.65. Institutional whale flow scores 16 / 20 and the stock has rallied from a $3.22 52-week low to $16.71, with revenue growing from $50.1M to $71.6M since FY 2023.. Trading inside a $3.22–$16.90 52-week range with -6.23% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Medical/Dental Instruments multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $15.65 and keeping dry powder in case we test $14.55.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.36 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $15.65

Operating losses persist across all three reported periods with ROIC at -35% and FCF yield at -6.23%, while insider conviction scores o

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RCEL: Operating losses persist across all three reported periods with ROIC at -35% and FCF yield at -6.23%, while insider conviction scores only 3 / 20.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Medical/Dental Instruments triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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