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Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$6.23 -10.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.10

Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $7.75B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RIG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (NYSE: RIG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $6.23 (-10.23% 1D, market cap $7.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, RIG ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RIG compare to NE and VIST in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), RIG carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.3%, and ROIC of -17.3%. By comparison, NE (Noble Corporation plc A) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 35.0x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $7.82B) and VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MTDR leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIG?
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Per RIG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001451505), Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) generated $3.96B in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$2.92B in net income, and $626.0M in free cash flow against $15.64B in total assets and $3.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.10 (-2.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (8)Whales (17)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$8 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE RIG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RIG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RIG SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$5.58+8.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$6.04+11.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$6.71-7.2% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$6.23+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RIG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, RIG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 36.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.81) or 200D SMA ($5.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.26) toward Bear Floor ($4.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RIG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RIG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RIG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.23: 1605.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.88
$7,833
$-2,167 (-21.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.26
$10,048
+$48 (+0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.04
$12,905
+$2,905 (+29.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RIG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RIG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.45%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $6.69H $6.94L $6.23C $6.23VOL 47.73M
RES: $7.10SUP: $5.23SMA50: $5.81SMA200: $5.90
$7.88$6.96$6.05$5.13$4.22RES $7.10SUP $5.23$6.232026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RIG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RIG Butterfly Map → + Track RIG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
18.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RIG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RIG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RIG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RIG)

Energy Rank #98 of 211 ⚔️ NE vs RIG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (RIG vs. NE, VIST, MTDR, VAL)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) ranks #98 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #67 by equity capitalization ($7.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VAL leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while MTDR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.1% ROIC and 94.3% gross margin. MTDR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with RIG at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RIG ACTIVE
Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)
C- 59/100 — 39.3% -17.3% -10.23% $7.75B Benchmark Subject
NE
Noble Corporation plc A
C+ 69/100 35.0x — 5.4% -7.22% $7.82B /ne-vs-rig →
VIST
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American
C 64/100 32.8x — 9.9% -5.05% $7.84B /vist-vs-rig →
MTDR
Matador Resources Company
B+ 77/100 9.8x 94.3% 12.1% -8.41% $7.53B /mtdr-vs-rig →
VAL
Valaris Limited
B 73/100 7.2x — 10.3% -10.09% $7.31B /val-vs-rig →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001451505 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) reported GAAP revenue of $3.96B (+12.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.52B , and +40.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.92B, operating cash flow of $749.0M, and free cash flow of $626.0M (+224.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, RIG closed FY2025 with $15.64B in total assets against $3.66B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.96B -$2.92B $749.0M $626.0M $15.64B $3.66B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.52B -$512.0M $447.0M $193.0M $19.37B $4.53B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.83B -$954.0M $164.0M $36.6M $4.11B $961.6M

3. RIG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (NYSE: RIG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $6.23 (-10.23% 1D, market cap $7.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, RIG ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RIG compare to NE and VIST in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), RIG carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.3%, and ROIC of -17.3%. By comparison, NE (Noble Corporation plc A) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 35.0x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $7.82B) and VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MTDR leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIG?

Per RIG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001451505), Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) generated $3.96B in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$2.92B in net income, and $626.0M in free cash flow against $15.64B in total assets and $3.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RIG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RIG last traded at $6.23 (-10.23% on volume of 45,685,173 shares), positioning the stock +7.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.81) and +5.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.90). Across its 52-week range of $3.68 to $7.66, RIG sits at the 64.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($5.74 to $6.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: RIG RQD Cockpit RIG 12M Forecast RIG Earnings & Move RIG Dividends & DRIP RIG Insiders & 13F RIG Whale Options RIG Profit Sankey RIG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RIG — Transocean Ltd (Switzerland): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $6.23 (-10.23% 1D, market capitalization $7.75B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -17.3%, gross margin of 39.3%, operating margin of -58.9%, and free cash flow yield of 8.38%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector and Oil & Gas Production industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 39.3%, but its operating margin is -58.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) reported $3.96B in annual revenue (up from $3.52B in FY2024, +12.5% YoY) and -$2.92B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.83B revenue, -$954.0M net income) through FY2025, RIG scaled operating cash flow to $749.0M and free cash flow to $626.0M, backed by $15.64B in total assets against $3.66B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 8.38% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.68 – $7.66 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation against -58.9% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification is Energy and industry is Oil & Gas Production. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the stated beta of 0.

  • Key Question #1: Can RIG sustain or expand its -58.9% operating margin and -17.3% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.96B and free cash flow of $626.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.66B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RIG's 25.0x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

RIG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RIG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RIG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RIG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RIG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.81 (+26.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $626.0M and an 8.38% FCF yield indicate cash generation despite operating losses.

Reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $626.0M and an 8.38% FCF yield indicate cash generation despite operating losses.. When you look under the hood at RIG, Fundamental Cash Engine is 8/20 with 39.3% gross margins and -17.3% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $7.66. My 12M target is $8.81.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — RIG's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.69 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $6.94

An operating margin of -58.9%, ROIC of -17.3%, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.45 signal sustained unprofitability and balance-sheet stress.

An operating margin of -58.9%, ROIC of -17.3%, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.45 signal sustained unprofitability and balance-sheet stress.. Look at the math on RIG: paying 25.0x forward P/E for -17.3% ROIC and -58.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $6.11 before getting long.

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