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Stock Ratings / Financials / RLI / forecast
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RLI Corp. (RLI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$65.23 +0.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $65.50

RLI Corp. (RLI) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $5.98B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RLI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $65.23 (+0.94% 1D, market cap $5.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RLI ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RLI compare to ESNT and SIGI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), RLI carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, ESNT (Essent Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $6.02B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTG leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLI?
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Per RLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000084246), RLI Corp. generated $1.88B in revenue (+6.3% YoY), $403.3M in net income, and $608.7M in free cash flow against $6.16B in total assets and $1.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $65.50 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510080
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+
Cash (15)Whales (16)SEC (15)Macro (16)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target
$85 Bull$72 Base$53 Bear
📬 FREE RLI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RLI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RLI SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk15/20 pts (-5 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 5 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
72
Grade B$57.63+10.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$63.90-0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
77
Grade B+$63.76+2.3% Next Q
Current
80
Grade B+$65.23+8.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RLI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, RLI faces multiple-compression risk if 14.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($60.61) or 200D SMA ($58.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.69) toward Bear Floor ($53.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RLI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RLI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RLI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $65.23: 153.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $53.49
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $71.69
$10,990
+$990 (+9.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $84.59
$12,968
+$2,968 (+29.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$7574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$8069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$6358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RLI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
RLI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $64.62H $65.23L $64.62C $65.23VOL 950.0K
RES: $67.33SUP: $53.26SMA50: $60.61SMA200: $58.67
$68.68$62.88$57.07$51.26$45.46RES $67.33SUP $53.26$65.232026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RLI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RLI Butterfly Map → + Track RLI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RLI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RLI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RLI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RLI)

Financials Rank #7 of 1096 ⚔️ ESNT vs RLI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RLI vs. ESNT, SIGI, MTG, MCY)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, RLI Corp. (RLI) ranks #7 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #243 by equity capitalization ($5.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTG leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RLI ACTIVE
RLI Corp.
B+ 80/100 14.7x — 13.5% +0.94% $5.98B Benchmark Subject
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
B+ 77/100 8.8x — 11.9% -0.86% $6.02B /esnt-vs-rli →
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 12.6x — 6.8% -0.49% $5.83B /sigi-vs-rli →
MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation
B 72/100 8.0x — 13.2% -1.52% $5.83B /mtg-vs-rli →
MCY
Mercury General Corporation
B 72/100 10.5x — 22.4% -0.22% $5.67B /mcy-vs-rli →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000084246

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), RLI Corp. (RLI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.88B (+6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and +24.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $403.3M, operating cash flow of $614.2M, and free cash flow of $608.7M (+9.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, RLI closed FY2025 with $6.16B in total assets against $1.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.88B $403.3M $614.2M $608.7M $6.16B $1.97B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.77B $345.8M $560.2M $555.5M $5.63B $1.85B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.51B $304.6M $464.3M $396.2M $3.26B $762.9M

3. RLI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $65.23 (+0.94% 1D, market cap $5.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RLI ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RLI compare to ESNT and SIGI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), RLI carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, ESNT (Essent Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $6.02B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTG leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLI?

Per RLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000084246), RLI Corp. generated $1.88B in revenue (+6.3% YoY), $403.3M in net income, and $608.7M in free cash flow against $6.16B in total assets and $1.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RLI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RLI last traded at $65.23 (+0.94% on volume of 950,019 shares), positioning the stock +7.62% above its 50-day simple moving average ($60.61) and +11.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($58.67). Across its 52-week range of $47.26 to $67.28, RLI sits at the 89.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($61.64 to $68.82).

RLI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RLI's 12-month stock price target?

RLI Corp. (RLI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $71.69 (+9.9% from $65.23), with a bull-case target of $84.59 and a bear-case floor of $53.49.

Is RLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates RLI B+ (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 80/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: RLI RQD Cockpit RLI 12M Forecast RLI Earnings & Move RLI Dividends & DRIP RLI Insiders & 13F RLI Whale Options RLI Profit Sankey RLI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RLI — RLI Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The per the Roarable RQD rating, RLI scores 80 out of 100 with a letter grade of B+ and a verdict label of "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 13.5%; FCF yield 10.27%), Whale 13F Flow at 16/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 18/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 16/20 (Beta 1.13; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, which contributes the most points relative to its maximum. For a prospective investor, the upside drivers are the high free-cash-flow yield and the insider and institutional flow signals; the valuation tradeoff is that the current price sits near the upper portion of its 52-week range, and the Beta of 1.13 implies somewhat above-market sensitivity to broad moves. The forensic pillar indicates a clean balance sheet by the cited scores, though it does not eliminate exposure to sector cycles. The rating is a structured summary of the supplied data, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
64.62$5.93B14.713.714.24.44.08%1.13$47.26 - $67.2813.5%

Business

RLI Corp. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. Per the company profile, it is a Delaware common stock issuer with a market capitalization of $5.9B. The source data does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue-generating lines in detail. Revenue and margin figures are provided in the financials section, but the mechanics of underwriting and premium generation are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1882.4M$475.9M$403.3MN/A$608.7MN/A$1972.5M
FY 2024$1770.4M$408.0M$345.8MN/A$555.5MN/A$1848.1M
FY 2023$1512.0M$359.4M$304.6MN/A$396.2MN/A$762.9M

Per the market data, operating margin is 26.1%, net margin is 21.4%, and ROIC is 13.5%. Gross margin is listed as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. Reported debt rose from $762.9M in FY 2023 to $1972.5M in FY 2025 while revenue and net income also grew across the three periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Margin discipline (GREEN, CATALYST): A Yahoo Finance headline states the stock gained ground after Q3 margin discipline.
  • Price target raise (GREEN, CATALYST): An Investing.com headline reports Wells Fargo raised its price target on durable margins.
  • Earnings call analyst questions (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Yahoo Finance piece covers analyst questions from the Q3 earnings call.
  • Pre-earnings valuation note (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A GuruFocus piece describes the company as preparing to report Q3 earnings amid modest undervaluation.
  • Long-term takeaways (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Yahoo Finance piece offers takeaways for long-term investors.
  • Price target to $74 (GREEN, CATALYST): An Investing.com headline reports Keefe Bruyette raised its target to $74 on strong results.

Risk watch items: the news wire does not describe specific downside events; the YELLOW items are general market commentary. Proprietary signals: the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no proprietary signals and no links.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the Financials sector and Property-Casualty Insurers industry labels. A prospective investor should note that second-order ripples such as catastrophe-loss cycles, reinsurance pricing, or interest-rate effects on investment income are not quantified in the supplied data and would need independent verification.

Open Questions

  • What are RLI's underwriting results, combined ratio, and catastrophe-loss exposure, given that the source data reports only revenue, operating income, and net income?
  • Why did reported debt rise from $762.9M in FY 2023 to $1972.5M in FY 2025, and what is the purpose and maturity profile of that debt?
  • What are the individual insider and institutional transactions underlying the 18/20 and 16/20 flow scores?
  • What is the cash balance, since the cash field is reported as N/A for every period?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and the basis for the price target raises cited in the news wire?

RLI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for RLI Corp. (RLI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RLI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RLI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $65.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RLI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RLI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $76.25 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RLI (B+ • RQD 80/100) a Buy at $64.62?

Welcome to the RLI (RLI Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 80/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $51.05 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $64.62

Pump the brakes on RLI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RLI, but look at what you are paying: 14.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless RLI Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.13 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $64.62

RLI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RLI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $64.62 (52-wk range $47.26 - $67.28), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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