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Stock Ratings / Financials / SF / dividends
JEF (58) FRHC (50) VIRT (56) SEIC (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$68.67 +2.97% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.91

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $10.07B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SF Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $68.67 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $10.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SF ranks #501 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), SF carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $10.59B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?
β–Ό

Per SF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000720672), Stifel Financial Corporation generated $3.77B in revenue (+14.5% YoY), $646.5M in net income, and $947.3M in free cash flow against $41.27B in total assets and $15.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.90 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 25.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$94 Bull$68 Base$53 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SF SCORES 56/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$67.80-2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$66.41+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$66.88+2.7% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$68.67-0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (48) β†’ D+ (56)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SF faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.56) or 200D SMA ($75.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($68.05) toward Bear Floor ($53.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (9.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $25,470

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $458/yr
$11.0K
Yr 1
$12.1K
Yr 2
$13.2K
Yr 3
$14.5K
Yr 4
$16.0K
Yr 5
$17.5K
Yr 6
$19.2K
Yr 7
$21.1K
Yr 8
$23.2K
Yr 9
$25.5K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SF)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of SF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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SF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.07%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $68.36H $68.67L $66.69C $68.67VOL 1.42M
RES: $92.03SUP: $65.16SMA50: $72.56SMA200: $75.91
$87.65$81.62$75.59$69.56$63.53RES $92.03SUP $65.16$68.672026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ SF Butterfly Map β†’ + Track SF β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SF)

Financials Rank #501 of 1097 βš”οΈ JEF vs SF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SF vs. JEF, FRHC, VIRT, SEIC)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) ranks #501 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #185 by equity capitalization ($10.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JEF leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while SEIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SEIC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SF at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SF ACTIVE
Stifel Financial Corporation
D+ 56/100 16.0x β€” 3.4% +2.97% $10.07B Benchmark Subject
JEF
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
D+ 58/100 7.9x β€” 6.0% +4.66% $10.59B /jef-vs-sf β†’
FRHC
Freedom Holding Corp.
D 50/100 76.4x β€” 11.0% +0.16% $11.93B /frhc-vs-sf β†’
VIRT
Virtu Financial Inc.
D+ 56/100 β€” β€” 0.0% -0.15% $8.34B /virt-vs-sf β†’
SEIC
SEI Investments Company
B- 70/100 17.4x β€” 24.2% +2.39% $12.26B /seic-vs-sf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000720672 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (+14.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.29B , and +39.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $646.5M, operating cash flow of $1.12B, and free cash flow of $947.3M (+176.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SF closed FY2025 with $41.27B in total assets against $15.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.77B $646.5M $1.12B $947.3M $41.27B $15.88B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.29B $694.1M $490.4M $342.2M $39.90B $15.39B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.71B $485.3M $499.3M $377.4M $5.68B $1.33B

3. SF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $68.67 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $10.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SF ranks #501 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), SF carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $10.59B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?

Per SF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000720672), Stifel Financial Corporation generated $3.77B in revenue (+14.5% YoY), $646.5M in net income, and $947.3M in free cash flow against $41.27B in total assets and $15.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SF last traded at $68.67 (+2.97% on volume of 1,298,502 shares), positioning the stock -5.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($72.56) and -9.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($75.91). Across its 52-week range of $65.40 to $89.83, SF sits at the 13.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.3% ($65.03 to $72.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: SF RQD Cockpit SF 12M Forecast SF Earnings & Move SF Dividends & DRIP SF Insiders & 13F SF Whale Options SF Profit Sankey SF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 56/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SF β€” Stifel Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $68.67 (+2.97% 1D, market capitalization $10.07B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 20.9%, and free cash flow yield of 9.18%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Stifel Financial Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry,. Revenue model details, customer base, and specific product lines are β€” The source data confirms a market capitalization of $10.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) reported $3.77B in annual revenue (up from $3.29B in FY2024, +14.5% YoY) and $646.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.71B revenue, $485.3M net income) through FY2025, SF scaled operating cash flow to $1.12B and free cash flow to $947.3M, backed by $41.27B in total assets against $15.88B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.40 – $89.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.0x trailing P/E and 24.5x EV/EBITDA against 20.9% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded. Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, and sector correlations are β€” Investors should therefore treat second-order ripple effects as unmapped in this dossier.

  • Key Question #1: Can SF sustain or expand its 20.9% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.77B and free cash flow of $947.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $15.88B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SF's 13.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

SF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $68.67?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.69 (+21.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.4 versus a trailing 16, implying expected earnings growth.

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.4 versus a trailing 16, implying expected earnings growth.. When you look under the hood at SF, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 3.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $89.83. My 12M target is $80.69.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” SF's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.35 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $66.69

A 12-month price target cut to $84.43 (flagged RED) and an ROIC of only 3.4% undercut the cash-flow story.

Fading this rally in SF at $66.69. A 12-month price target cut to $84.43 (flagged RED) and an ROIC of only 3.4% undercut the cash-flow story.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $66.69 (52-wk range $65.40–$89.83), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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