Stock Ratings / Financials / SF / financials

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Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$66.69 -2.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.27

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $10.07B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $66.69 (-2.44% 1D, market cap $10.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SF ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), SF carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $10.59B) and FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 76.4x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $11.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JEF leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while SEIC leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?

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Per SF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000720672), Stifel Financial Corporation generated $3.77B in revenue (+14.5% YoY), $646.5M in net income, and $947.3M in free cash flow against $41.27B in total assets and $15.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.27 (-0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 25.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SF SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$67.80-2.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$66.41+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$66.88-0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$66.69-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SF faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.56) or 200D SMA ($75.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($66.09) toward Bear Floor ($51.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SF Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$947.3M (25.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.71B

FY24

Rev $3.29B

FY25

Rev $3.77B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.77B	52%	20.2%	$646.5M	$947.3M	3.1%
FY 2024	$3.29B	52%	28.2%	$694.1M	$342.2M	4%
FY 2023	$2.71B	52%	26.1%	$485.3M	$377.4M	16.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SF)

✓Walkthrough of SF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.66%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $68.36H $68.36L $66.69C $66.69VOL 1.42M

RES: $92.03SUP: $65.16SMA50: $72.56SMA200: $75.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SF Butterfly Map → + Track SF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SF)

Financials Rank #500 of 1096 ⚔️ JEF vs SF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SF vs. JEF, FRHC, VIRT, SEIC)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) ranks #500 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #184 by equity capitalization ($10.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JEF leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while SEIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SEIC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SF at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SF ACTIVE Stifel Financial Corporation	D+	56/100	16.0x	—	3.4%	-2.44%	$10.07B	Benchmark Subject
JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	D+	58/100	7.9x	—	6.0%	-6.16%	$10.59B	/jef-vs-sf →
FRHC Freedom Holding Corp.	D	50/100	76.4x	—	11.0%	+1.81%	$11.93B	/frhc-vs-sf →
VIRT Virtu Financial Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	0.0%	-0.83%	$8.34B	/virt-vs-sf →
SEIC SEI Investments Company	B-	70/100	17.4x	—	24.2%	-1.25%	$12.26B	/seic-vs-sf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000720672

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (+14.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.29B , and +39.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $646.5M, operating cash flow of $1.12B, and free cash flow of $947.3M (+176.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SF closed FY2025 with $41.27B in total assets against $15.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.77B	$646.5M	$1.12B	$947.3M	$41.27B	$15.88B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.29B	$694.1M	$490.4M	$342.2M	$39.90B	$15.39B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.71B	$485.3M	$499.3M	$377.4M	$5.68B	$1.33B

3. SF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SF compare to JEF and FRHC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SF?

Where is SF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SF last traded at $66.69 (-2.44% on volume of 1,416,752 shares), positioning the stock -8.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($72.56) and -12.15% below its 200-day simple moving average ($75.91). Across its 52-week range of $65.40 to $89.83, SF sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($63.16 to $70.22).

SF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Stifel Financial Corporation (SF)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SF converted $3.8B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 20.2% operating margin, and $947.3M in free cash flow (25.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SF RQD Cockpit SF 12M Forecast SF Earnings & Move SF Dividends & DRIP SF Insiders & 13F SF Whale Options SF Profit Sankey SF News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SF — Stifel Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SF scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars break down as follows:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20 (ROIC 3.4%; FCF yield 9.18%). This is the pillar that most directly reflects the business's cash generation. The FCF yield is comparatively strong in the source data, but the ROIC of 3.4% is low, which tempers how efficiently the capital base is converting into returns.
Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is a weak reading, indicating that institutional positioning is not providing strong tailwinds in the source data.
Insider Conviction: 17 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). This is the strongest pillar, suggesting insider and congressional activity in the source data leans constructive.
Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20 (Beta 1.05; sector sensitivity). A beta slightly above 1.0 means the stock is modestly more volatile than the market, which is a weak fit for a defensive posture.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The balance sheet screens as reasonably sound on the forensic metrics provided.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a mixed picture: a solid balance sheet and strong insider signal set against weak institutional flow, low ROIC, and limited macro fit. The forward P/E of 13.4 compared with a trailing P/E of 16 implies the market expects earnings to be higher, though the EV/EBITDA of 24.5 indicates a rich enterprise-value multiple relative to EBITDA. The valuation tradeoff is therefore not clear-cut. The rating's verdict of Hold reflects this balance rather than a directional call.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
68.36	$10.32B	16	13.4	24.5	4.28	0%	1.05	$65.4 - $89.83	3.4%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the Recent News & Catalysts feed, the items are:

A Yahoo Finance report on SF stock forecasts (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
A TradingView report describing a 12-month price target cut to $84.43, implying 26% upside (RISK WATCH, RED).
A MarketBeat profile of SF (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
A second Yahoo Finance stock forecast report (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
A MarketBeat report stating an average price target of $85.71 according to analysts (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW).
A report describing SF edging lower to $70.28 between key technical levels (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW). The source attribution for this item is a non-descriptive domain, so its reliability should be weighed accordingly.

The only RED-flagged item is the price target cut, which is the principal risk-watch signal. The remaining items are generic market-wire coverage. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What is the consensus analyst rating, and what is the source and date of the individual price targets?
Which institutions hold SF, and what changed in 13F positions over the most recent reporting period?
What drives the gap between the reported debt figures and the stated Debt/Equity of 0.5?
Why is ROIC at 3.4% when FCF yield is 9.18%, and how is invested capital defined?
What are the upstream and downstream dependencies for the business, given no supply-chain links are mapped?

SF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SF Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 18h ago

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 21h ago

Stifel Financial Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $84.43, Implies 26% Upside

TradingView report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Stifel Financial (SF) Stock Price, News & Analysis $SF

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE:SF) Stock Has Average Price Target of $85.71 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

Stifel Financial (SF) Edges Lower to $70.28, Holding Firmly Between Key Technical Levels - Trend Following Picks

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

199,915 Shares in Stifel Financial Corporation $SF Acquired by Argent Capital Management LLC

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

25,392 Stifel Financial Corporation $SF Shares Bought by Vest Financial LLC

MarketBeat report covering Stifel Financial Corporation (SF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 20h ago

Stifel Expands Leadership in Capital Solutions with Three Senior Hires

Adam Steinberg, Mickey Brunton, and Gavin Kolt Strengthen Capital Structure Advisory, GP-Led Secondaries, and Private Capital Markets CapabilitiesST. LOUIS, Nov. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Stifel Financial Corp. (NYSE:

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $66.69?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SF 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $73.83 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SF (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $68.36?

Welcome to the SF (Stifel Financial Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $51.27 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $68.36

Pump the brakes on SF — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SF, but look at what you are paying: 16.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Stifel Financial Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.66 (+18.0%)

Spot @ $68.36

SF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $68.36 (52-wk range $65.40 - $89.83), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.