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Stock Ratings / Financials / TROW / earnings
PS (57) TPG (64) BEN (65) OWL (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.1% Move

$103.90 -2.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.67

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 21% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $22.75B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TROW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $103.90 (-2.56% 1D, market cap $22.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TROW ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TROW compare to PS and TPG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), TROW carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.5%. By comparison, PS (Pershing Square Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $19.66B) and TPG (TPG Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 98.2x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $18.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TROW leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while TROW leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TROW?
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Per TROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001113169), T. Rowe Price Group Inc. generated $7.31B in revenue (+3.1% YoY), $2.09B in net income, and $1.48B in free cash flow against $14.34B in total assets and $1.03B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $103.67 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 20.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C
Cash (16)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.7% Base Target
$131 Bull$111 Base$85 Bear
📬 FREE TROW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TROW SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.2% FCF Margin ($1.48B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.3) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$101.39+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$102.13+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$103.63+0.3% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$103.90+7.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, TROW faces multiple-compression risk if 10.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($105.44) or 200D SMA ($103.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($110.91) toward Bear Floor ($85.20).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.1% Swing Band

±$5.30 Expected Swing
$98.60 (-5.1%)Spot $103.90$109.20 (+5.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TROW Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 73/100

Trailing EPS: $9.78 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.1%

Model Bullish Setup (73/100)Model Risk Weight (27/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$7.31B$2.09B$1.48B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$7.09B$2.10B$1.26B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$6.46B$1.79B$928.4M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TROW & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TROW
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $104.0H $106.6L $103.9C $103.9VOL 2.23M
RES: $106.9SUP: $96.90SMA50: $105.4SMA200: $103.7
$124.0$115.7$107.4$99.03$90.71RES $106.9SUP $96.90$103.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TROW Butterfly Map → + Track TROW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TROW)

Financials Rank #56 of 1096 ⚔️ PS vs TROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TROW vs. PS, TPG, BEN, OWL)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #111 by equity capitalization ($22.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TROW leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while TROW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. TROW currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TROW ACTIVE
T. Rowe Price Group Inc.
B 73/100 10.9x — 20.5% -2.56% $22.75B Benchmark Subject
PS
Pershing Square Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — — -7.10% $19.66B /ps-vs-trow →
TPG
TPG Inc.
C 64/100 98.2x — 2.5% -2.63% $18.12B /tpg-vs-trow →
BEN
Franklin Templeton Inc.
C 65/100 31.3x — 3.0% -2.16% $16.43B /ben-vs-trow →
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
C 65/100 53.1x — 6.3% -0.77% $16.23B /owl-vs-trow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001113169

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) reported GAAP revenue of $7.31B (+3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.09B , and +13.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.09B, operating cash flow of $1.75B, and free cash flow of $1.48B (+17.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TROW closed FY2025 with $14.34B in total assets against $1.03B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.31B $2.09B $1.75B $1.48B $14.34B $1.03B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.09B $2.10B $1.69B $1.26B $13.47B $909.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.46B $1.79B $1.22B $928.4M $12.51B $2.93B

3. TROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $103.90 (-2.56% 1D, market cap $22.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TROW ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TROW compare to PS and TPG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), TROW carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.5%. By comparison, PS (Pershing Square Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $19.66B) and TPG (TPG Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 98.2x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $18.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TROW leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while TROW leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TROW?

Per TROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001113169), T. Rowe Price Group Inc. generated $7.31B in revenue (+3.1% YoY), $2.09B in net income, and $1.48B in free cash flow against $14.34B in total assets and $1.03B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TROW last traded at $103.90 (-2.56% on volume of 3,549,904 shares), positioning the stock -1.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($105.44) and +0.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($103.68). Across its 52-week range of $85.22 to $122.00, TROW sits at the 50.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($98.60 to $109.20).

TROW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TROW's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TROW stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.1% event move for TROW, spanning a range between $98.6 and $109.2.

Direct Sub-Reports: TROW RQD Cockpit TROW 12M Forecast TROW Earnings & Move TROW Dividends & DRIP TROW Insiders & 13F TROW Whale Options TROW Profit Sankey TROW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 73/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TROW — T. Rowe Price Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:16Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TROW scores 73 out of 100, earning a letter grade of B and the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 20.5% and an FCF yield of 6.5%. For an investor, these are the strongest cash-generation signals in the rating.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the highest-scoring pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The specific transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects a Beta of 0.9 and sector sensitivity. A beta below 1.0 implies somewhat lower market-linked volatility than the broader market, per the source's own metric.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5. These are moderate rather than exceptional readings.

Taken together, the rating points to a business with strong cash returns and notable insider-flow support, tempered by middling macro fit and a balance sheet that is solid but not top-tier. Per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 10.9 and a Forward P/E of 10.1, which the rating's valuation context would frame as a relatively modest multiple against its cash generation. The upside case rests on sustained cash returns and insider conviction; the valuation tradeoff is that a lower multiple can reflect market skepticism that the rating does not itemize. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
106.63$22.75B10.910.18.49.785.03%0.9$85.22 - $12220.5%

Business

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Managers industry, per the profile. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $22.7B. The source data does not describe its specific products, client base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the market data, its operating margin is 29.9% and its net margin is 28.5%.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines are as follows:

  • "T. Rowe Price Stock Has Fallen Out of Favor. Could That Create an Opportunity?" (Yahoo Finance) — flagged RED, RISK WATCH.
  • "Is T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) A Bargain As Fund Changes Meet A Share Price Pullback?" (Yahoo Finance) — flagged GREEN, CATALYST.
  • "T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) Stock Price, News, Quote & History" (Yahoo! Finance Canada) — flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE.
  • "Why T. Rowe Price (TROW) Outpaced the Stock Market Today" (Yahoo Finance) — flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE.
  • "T. Rowe Price (TROW) Stock Still Looks Undervalued As Shares Fell 38%" (Yahoo Finance) — flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE.
  • "Advisor Hiring Push Could Be A Key Test For T. Rowe Price Stock (TROW)" (Yahoo Finance) — flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE.

Per the news feed, one item is a RISK WATCH, one is a CATALYST, and four are MARKET WIRE items. The feed summaries are generic and do not specify the underlying facts. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals or butterfly links; supply_chain is listed as NONE.

Open Questions

  • What specific fund changes and advisor hiring trends are referenced in the news headlines, and how do they bear on the business?
  • What are the underlying transactions behind the insider and 13F components of the Roarable RQD rating?
  • What drove the reported 38% share price decline referenced in one headline, and how does it relate to the current price of 106.63 within the 52-week range?
  • Why is FY 2025 EPS and FY 2024 EPS not reported in the financials, and how does that affect comparing per-share profitability over time?
  • What explains the FY 2023 cash figure being unavailable and the debt decline from $2927.4M to $1029.9M?

TROW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TROW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TROW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $103.90?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TROW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TROW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $125.82 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TROW (B • RQD 73/100) a Buy at $106.63?

Welcome to the TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Investment Managers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $85.30 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $106.63

Pump the brakes on TROW — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TROW, but look at what you are paying: 10.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless T. Rowe Price Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $131.15 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $106.63

TROW cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TROW, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Managers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $106.63 (52-wk range $85.22 - $122.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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